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Fossil Fuel Divestment - Saudis Want Out

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75%, which is typical of a modern gas CC (at least at today's gas prices). I'm using a capacity rate of $11/kW-month, which is ISO New England's FERC-filed Net Cost of New Entry.
So in that case, competition from other producers that would reduce capacity could drive up capital costs, right? The NREL has PV capital costs of utility scale projects at ~$1800/kW, which seems awfully close to the ~$1000-1200/kW capital costs of CC gas in CA.

http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy15osti/64746.pdf
 
So in that case, competition from other producers that would reduce capacity could drive up capital costs, right? The NREL has PV capital costs of utility scale projects at ~$1800/kW, which seems awfully close to the ~$1000-1200/kW capital costs of CC gas in CA.

http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy15osti/64746.pdf
New England, like most other organized markets (but unlike California) has an "forward capacity market" which has the effect of gating new entrants, avoiding boom-bust cycles like we've had in the past. So there shouldn't be a big flood of high-efficiency gas units that kill each others' capacity factors.

Re capital cost, it requires a more complex analysis to see whether energy from PVs cost about the same as from gas-fired units. You need two pieces: first, a levelized, lifetime cost of energy that takes into account capacity factors, operating & maintenance costs, and fuel costs; second, expected revenues/kW. This second piece is particularly tricky because it needs to capture time-of-day energy pricing (which requires some forecasting of future new entry that may compress energy prices during the solar day), differential transmission losses, and potential earnings from ancillary services (reserves & regulation) and capacity payments.
 
The Saudis were down in Venezuela talking potential production cuts. The news over the past few week MUST be spooking them at this point. There's no sign of price recovery for a couple years and that's going to approach the financial limit of their ability to maintain control.

Something semi-drastic has to be done between Russia/SA/Venezuela before summer which will allow US production to come back online and the whole thing starts over again. Yay!
 
New England, like most other organized markets (but unlike California) has an "forward capacity market" which has the effect of gating new entrants, avoiding boom-bust cycles like we've had in the past. So there shouldn't be a big flood of high-efficiency gas units that kill each others' capacity factors.

Re capital cost, it requires a more complex analysis to see whether energy from PVs cost about the same as from gas-fired units. You need two pieces: first, a levelized, lifetime cost of energy that takes into account capacity factors, operating & maintenance costs, and fuel costs; second, expected revenues/kW. This second piece is particularly tricky because it needs to capture time-of-day energy pricing (which requires some forecasting of future new entry that may compress energy prices during the solar day), differential transmission losses, and potential earnings from ancillary services (reserves & regulation) and capacity payments.
Does that apply to all generators? For instance, lets say a solar or wind farm can deliver lower cost energy than a a load following generator with just ~2/3rds of it's total output. The rest it sells for whatever it can get, which isn't much, but that portion of it's generation would compete with a baseload gas plant, which would lower the gas plant's capacity factor. In that case, does the gas plant operator have to lump it, or is the PV operator restricted from selling part of it's generation because the baseload gas plant has already signed a contract for that forward capacity?
 
The saddest part of all is that there is a voracious army of hucksters who will push this IPO to the entire investment world as an unprecedented opportunity of the highest quality. Hundreds of billions of dollars of bag holder's monies will finance this corrupt and evil government as it tries to stay relevant as it wreaks havoc on its people, the surrounding area and the world. Afterwards they will shrug and say 'who,could have imagined?'.


Much of the investment world believes there is great value there and will be happy for the opportunity. If there is any worry for most of these potential investors of Saudi reserves staying in the ground, it is with a paternalistic eye toward those who hold the "bag" - 40 or 50 years from now.
 
When all the bad actors in the part of the world that extracts the most oil start having to tighten their belts, you would think that all the extra money that was sloshing around that found it's way into the really bad actors hands would start to become a bit more scarce. Having less money available often tends to focus ones attention on things that matter, like keeping your people fed, and maintaining the "status quo", versus imposing your religious beliefs on others via the point of a gun.
Better to start working on it 100 years late than never.
 
The newest plan to move Saudi Arabia off oil is set to be announced in a week with implementation to start 30 days later. Lets see if anything actually gets done this time. I'm not holding my breath.

Saudi Arabia's Post-Oil Plan Starts April 25, Prince Says

One component of the plan is the National Transformation Program, which will be launched a month or 45 days after this month’s announcement, said the prince, who is the king’s son and second-in-line to the throne of the world’s top oil exporter. The plan to transform Saudi Aramco from an oil company into an energy and industrial conglomerate, as well as the future of the Public Investment Fund, will also be part of the comprehensive vision, he said.

Saudi Arabia is seeking to overhaul the economy to reduce the kingdom’s reliance on oil after the plunge in crude prices. Prince Mohammed said in an interview late last month that the plan involves raising non-oil revenue by $100 billion by 2020 as well as turning the PIF into the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund for the kingdom’s most prized assets.

Saudi authorities are weighing measures that include more steps to restructure subsidies, imposing a value-added tax, and a levy on energy and sugary drinks as well as luxury items. The National Transformation Program will also focus on ways to boost economic growth, create jobs, attract investors and hold government offices more accountable.

Prince Mohammed, who is leading the biggest shake-up of the economy since Saudi Arabia’s founding, oversees the Council for Economic and Development Affairs, which includes the country’s finance, oil and economy ministries. The council, established after his father became king, also controls the PIF.

Past rulers have avoided relying on the public for additional revenue for fear of triggering a backlash from one of the world’s most conservative societies. Government spending, jobs and subsidies have typically been the engine of economic growth.
 
Further support for this thesis is the timing. As we all know, crude prices are presently about $100/bbl less than they were at their recent peak and at the lowest in twelve years. Absolutely not the time to sell off....unless one's long-term view is similar to the stranded-assets thesis.
I agree that the drop in oil prices is one big part of the motivation. The kingdom has a a big budget, and they now have a cash flow crunch.

The conspiracy side of me, such as it is, wonders if the Saudis are also not playing a bit of politics. Nothing like turning your customers into shareholders to keep the status quo.
 
m toying with an idea to create a recommender system for news which takes your preferences, and selectively gives you contrarian articles that aren't off-putting, but give you a different viewpoint. The problem is finding content that presents the evidence/news in a less narrative-based fashion.
For me it is Bloomberg News and Forbes, and occasionally a sprinkling of the UK Financial times.

I used to read the WSJ too, but Murdoch turned it into an extension of Fox
 
The conspiracy side of me, such as it is, wonders if the Saudis are also not playing a bit of politics. Nothing like turning your customers into shareholders to keep the status quo.
Oh, you don't have to be conspiratorially-minded to think they're playing politics. That's what being a nation-state is all about.

As a concrete example, late last week the Saudis presented a close-to-fait accompli to D.C., viz. "If you proceed with your pending legislation to make Saudi A. potentially liable for the 9/11 attacks, we will immediately close out the $750 billion we have in US Treasuries, as we cannot afford even the possibility of having those assets frozen".

Such a move would roil the world's bond markets so frothily that I cannot dare suggest how it would end....except "not good" is a first stab.

Now, there's a fine game of chicken....and as political as it gets.
 
As a concrete example, late last week the Saudis presented a close-to-fait accompli to D.C., viz. "If you proceed with your pending legislation to make Saudi A. potentially liable for the 9/11 attacks, we will immediately close out the $750 billion we have in US Treasuries, as we cannot afford even the possibility of having those assets frozen".

Such a move would roil the world's bond markets so frothily that I cannot dare suggest how it would end....except "not good" is a first stab.
I saw this as well, and I'm also at a loss for a concrete answer as to how it would turn out. However, I do wonder - where would they put $750 billion? In a sure-to-depreciate riyal? In the Eurozone? In China? From my vantage point, the threat could be real, but they'd be shooting themselves in the foot.
 
Saudi Arabia threatens to "Flood The World in Oil"...

Saudi Arabia Prepared To Flood World With Oil

Saw this headline this morning before getting out of bed, part of the big oil talks in Doha. Nice bunch of Saudi princes all dressed up in their impeccable white robes. Now, maybe I've drunk a wee bit too much of the renewable energy kool-aid, but the first thought that came to my mind was: That would be ecological terrorism :eek:

What if Peabody energy had unlimited financial resources instead of being bankrupt, and declared that they would "bury the world in $5 per ton coal", in order to bankrupt any other energy source?

How is it OK to "flood the world in oil", while it may not be OK to bury the world in coal?

It sure seems that in a very short amount of time, people are going to be looking back on guys making statements like "we are going to flood the world in oil", and be wondering: What planet are these guys living on? :rolleyes: Thought it might be cool if someone had a nice balloon or two filled with oil they could have bounced off their nice white robes to put things a little more into perspective.

RT
 
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The way I look at it - if the Saudis were to "flood the world with oil", there would be a whole bunch of side effects that would balance / counter what they're doing.

The direct impact would be lower oil prices, as an already saturated market has a further increase in supply.

Lower prices would force for-profit companies to the sideline, to the extent that low prices are sustained and are below the marginal cost to those producers to generate a barrel of oil. Part of this mechanism is tied up in the debt these companies hold as they are incented to pump at even a small marginal profit to make loan payments, even if the overall economic result is to lose money (the cost to find and complete the oil wells is real, but is also already an investment that's been made, and is thus a sunk cost at this point). As for-profit companies take production offline and/or don't complete wells / explore for new wells, that will reduce supply and tend to increase prices (or at least slow down the rate at which they go down).

Lower oil prices usually translate to lower gas prices at the pump, and lower gas prices leads to less fuel efficient vehicles being driven and more miles being driven. More demand pushes the price of oil up.


And plenty more. The point is that any one actor provides lots of extra oil isn't the environmental terrorism actor. If you want to view it through this lens, then everybody living in and participating in the modern economy is participating in environmental terrorism. Whether we use oil for transportation or not, we're all dependent on food systems that are dependent on the oil economy, on energy systems that are dependent on the oil economy, and on and on.


My view of things is that oil is in secular decline already, or is at least "close" (measured in years, not decades), to entering secular decline. The price of a barrel of oil will drop ahead of the secular decline, and stay perpetually low when that begins, as there are massive investments previously completed, that make oil available for the various purpose oil is put to.

The ONLY real question is who will provide the remaining oil we will be consuming as a species. And I would rather that oil come from already completed projects, with low marginal cost of production. Two things the Saudis have in spades.

Meanwhile, wind and solar (and other sources of energy), will lower the marginal cost of energy so low, they will start replacing more and more of the oil economy. Until even a marginal barrel of oil from the lowest cost reserves in the world can't compete. (This is probably decades instead of years). At that point, oil stops being a transportation and energy commodity, and becomes a chemical input for processes that need complex hydrocarbons for chemical transformations (other than burning that is).


Really big picture, the marginal cost for energy for the various systems that make up our world economy, looks to me to be in decline. The % of world economic activity that goes to paying for the energy needed by that worldwide economic activity is declining as a % of the world economic pie. We're spending less on energy, and I believe that's a permanent shift. That will free up resources to spend on other stuff - food, clothing, amusement parks, movies, jewelry, roads, ... Stuff.
 
However, I do wonder - where would they put $750 billion? In a sure-to-depreciate riyal? In the Eurozone? In China? From my vantage point, the threat could be real, but they'd be shooting themselves in the foot.

They're gonna need to sell some treasuries eventually regardless since they're set for a $150-180B deficit this year and it should only get worse in the years to come.
 
They're gonna need to sell some treasuries eventually regardless since they're set for a $150-180B deficit this year and it should only get worse in the years to come.

The Saudis are in a major arms buildup and they are conducting a war in Yemen right now. If they weren't doing those things they probably wouldn't be running a deficit. They also have been planning for the far future from the beginning, putting away money and building infrastructure for when the oil runs out.
 
I saw this as well, and I'm also at a loss for a concrete answer as to how it would turn out. However, I do wonder - where would they put $750 billion? In a sure-to-depreciate riyal? In the Eurozone? In China? From my vantage point, the threat could be real, but they'd be shooting themselves in the foot.
That's by definition what makes it a threat and not a promise. For a threat to be credible it has to hurt both parties.
 
If the Saudis look to kuwait as a model and invest in a value added supply chain for its resources then a public offering for the oil extraction company makes sense. That is the planned joint venture with Dow that they cancelled in 2008. It was a good idea but the timing sucked. Add polymer production from natural gas to start the branch into fabrics, then up to fabric products. Lots of things are oil based and more profitable then raw or refined oil. Also if they really are thinking long term and want to hedge their bets research into fusion would be a good investment. It's a bit of a moon shot but the upside is massive and it would be equally disastrous for them if it works and they aren't getting a piece of that pie.
 
So I guess that $750B Treasury dump was a slight over-estimation.

Saudi Arabia’s $117 Billion Treasuries Tally Poses Fresh Puzzle

I was fortunate enough to be traveling all around the USVIs and BVIs over the last 8 days and purposely brought up the Saudis in casual conversations when I found myself in an interesting/well-heeled group. Mentioned the changing Saudi dynamic maybe 5 times with folks from dozens of nations, not a soul knew what I was talking about or that the current oil price movement was anything other than normal fluctuation. Amazing.
 
The newest plan to move Saudi Arabia off oil is set to be announced in a week with implementation to start 30 days later. Lets see if anything actually gets done this time. I'm not holding my breath.

Saudi Arabia's Post-Oil Plan Starts April 25, Prince Says

Finally starting to hear voices in the media calling bullshit on this Saudi energy transition and realizing there's no way out. The Saudis are pumping at record rates, Iran is coming online aggressively and if they both miraculously kiss and make up, the US will immediately come back on line and expand.

The Saudis pay their people for allegiance and stability. They are now perpetually in the red to the tune of $100-150B on those annual payments. Hillary better be ready for this mess because things are gonna get mighty ugly.

The Soft Pinch of Austerity in Saudi Arabia Could Backfire
The cost of Saudi living is on the way up, and the kingdom’s rulers are watching out for a backlash.

Their National Transformation Program envisages cutting public wages to 40 percent of spending by 2020, from 45 percent today. Other elements include selling shares in state companies -- including the crown jewel, oil giant Saudi Aramco -- setting up the world’s biggest sovereign wealth fund, and a bonfire of regulations that hold back private business.

The plan, announced with much fanfare over four days in June, was greeted with some skepticism -- and not just overseas. Jameel al-Theyabi, editor-in-chief of local newspaper Okaz, dismissed the ministers’ presentations as empty verbiage.