Seems like hundreds of Model 3's with a few S and X's mixed in. This was in a lot next to the Fremont factory.
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I know..I do apologize for the bad pictures, but I couldn't believe what I saw...was too scared to get much closer.
EscoguyS75
S75
It could be the ultimate game theory/economic pricing scenario happening.
Create a sense of scarcity, then test to see how many of the 400K plus reservations are willing to go for premium upgrades and long range.
If they are sending out 5K of invites at a time and 10% go for the current version, Tesla may think it is most opportune to keep the scarcity thinking going until they get the 40K commitments to the higher priced version. At that point, the would need best case 8 weeks to delivery at the 5K/week plan. So people get their cars, more pay for the upgrade than planned but in order to feel like they are not slipping in the line, they pay a premium. It's classic economic pricing where the market is segmented by the amount different consumer groups are willing to pay. It is probably unique in that most companies can't do this for very long or at this attempted volume.
At a certain level, this is exactly what they said they would do. At the same time, getting the additional $2,500 non refundable deposit has the potential to enter the realm of leading many buyers to make skewed decisions with incomplete information. If it shockingly turns out that other EVs are more refined products (New Leaf) or if there are unresolved quality issues, then there could be significant blowback in terms of reputation.
Part of me would like to think that Telsa is mindful of all these factors. Reality however is usually more complicated and subtle.
It could be they are planning on as many Q1 2018 deliveries as possible due to the structure of how the tax credit is tied to quarterly deliveries. If I recall correctly, during the quarter they hit the 200,000 delivery threshold, all deliveries obtain the same $7,500 potential credit. During the subsequent quarter, the amount drops by 50%, that could explain why they would manage deliveries at quarter ends carefully.
Create a sense of scarcity, then test to see how many of the 400K plus reservations are willing to go for premium upgrades and long range.
If they are sending out 5K of invites at a time and 10% go for the current version, Tesla may think it is most opportune to keep the scarcity thinking going until they get the 40K commitments to the higher priced version. At that point, the would need best case 8 weeks to delivery at the 5K/week plan. So people get their cars, more pay for the upgrade than planned but in order to feel like they are not slipping in the line, they pay a premium. It's classic economic pricing where the market is segmented by the amount different consumer groups are willing to pay. It is probably unique in that most companies can't do this for very long or at this attempted volume.
At a certain level, this is exactly what they said they would do. At the same time, getting the additional $2,500 non refundable deposit has the potential to enter the realm of leading many buyers to make skewed decisions with incomplete information. If it shockingly turns out that other EVs are more refined products (New Leaf) or if there are unresolved quality issues, then there could be significant blowback in terms of reputation.
Part of me would like to think that Telsa is mindful of all these factors. Reality however is usually more complicated and subtle.
It could be they are planning on as many Q1 2018 deliveries as possible due to the structure of how the tax credit is tied to quarterly deliveries. If I recall correctly, during the quarter they hit the 200,000 delivery threshold, all deliveries obtain the same $7,500 potential credit. During the subsequent quarter, the amount drops by 50%, that could explain why they would manage deliveries at quarter ends carefully.
EscoguyS75
S75
Of course you could go to the guard desk and say you're from Ajax janitorial to do a site survey for the weekly cleaning and need a few hours to inventory all the territory which needs to be cleaned. As long as they let you on the territory, its not trespassing.
Drone might be better.
Drone might be better.
Tesla has a large area around the factory where they temporarily store cars that are awaiting transport. There is a place to load cars onto trains as well as a place to load trucks.
Current production of Model S and X are around 500 each per week. It wouldn't be surprising for about a week's production to be parked there. It is possible there is some kind of issue with Model 3 production that is holding up shipment. If there was, say a shortage of touchscreens, they could roll the cars off the production lines without the screens and them park them in the storage lot until the new shipment comes in. That way they don't have to stop the production lines for one part.
I worked for Boeing back in the late 80s and early 90s. I occasionally had to run up to Everett for one reason or another. Boeing had a problem with the navigation computer on the 747-400 early in the production run. The fleet got grounded when a bug was found when flying over the north pole (it couldn't handle 0, 0). They kept production going until the problem got fixed. Paine Field and the factory had 747s crammed everywhere. They were nesting them together tucking one wing between the wing and tail of another plane to get them crammed in as tight as possible. It was surreal to see 747s everywhere you looked.
Once the fix for the computer got certified, they cleared out the backlog in a couple of weeks.
Tesla may have some sort of minor production problem that is preventing deliveries, but they don't want it known because the media would run around hair on fire about it. GM can have problems like that right and left and it's a page 3 story in the local paper and not much else. If Tesla has the same sort of problem, Bob Lutz will be on every channel predicting the imminent demise of the company again.
Current production of Model S and X are around 500 each per week. It wouldn't be surprising for about a week's production to be parked there. It is possible there is some kind of issue with Model 3 production that is holding up shipment. If there was, say a shortage of touchscreens, they could roll the cars off the production lines without the screens and them park them in the storage lot until the new shipment comes in. That way they don't have to stop the production lines for one part.
I worked for Boeing back in the late 80s and early 90s. I occasionally had to run up to Everett for one reason or another. Boeing had a problem with the navigation computer on the 747-400 early in the production run. The fleet got grounded when a bug was found when flying over the north pole (it couldn't handle 0, 0). They kept production going until the problem got fixed. Paine Field and the factory had 747s crammed everywhere. They were nesting them together tucking one wing between the wing and tail of another plane to get them crammed in as tight as possible. It was surreal to see 747s everywhere you looked.
Once the fix for the computer got certified, they cleared out the backlog in a couple of weeks.
Tesla may have some sort of minor production problem that is preventing deliveries, but they don't want it known because the media would run around hair on fire about it. GM can have problems like that right and left and it's a page 3 story in the local paper and not much else. If Tesla has the same sort of problem, Bob Lutz will be on every channel predicting the imminent demise of the company again.
Garlan Garner
Banned
What a wonderful vision however, What does ELON say about this? Has anyone asked him? 400K reservationists and they have cars just sitting around? There aren't hardly any options on the cars right now other than color and wheel. I'm just perplexed as to what's going on? I know of at least 2 people that are waiting for their cars.
ProphetM
Member
Perhaps there are just some software features needed. We know that the software has been missing some normal features. Maybe they're still delivering to employees with the current software but waiting for a couple more software features to be finished before they deliver to regular customers who have ordered.
Garlan Garner
Banned
It can't be a vendor problem right. Elon said that vendors are ready....unless Tesla is a vendor.
Anyone reason why it’s not a day or two worth of production that haven’t had a chance to be sent out for delivery? Elon has said (paraphrasing) we should expect to see a large uptick in December. Not sure why evidence of a large number of them being produced means something is wrong with production. It’s not like they roll off the assembly line directly into the back of a truck.
powertoold
Active Member
Um current S and X production is around 2000 a week.
Hopefully Tesla is in the "thousands per week" for the 3.
Hopefully Tesla is in the "thousands per week" for the 3.
gg_got_a_tesla
Model S: VIN 65513, Model 3: VIN 1913
Seems like hundreds of Model 3's with a few S and X's mixed in. This was in a lot next to the Fremont factory.
There, that second Red behind the RENTCO sign is mine.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
No, you either never knew how it worked or you remembered wrong.
The phase-out period stretches over one year, beginning in the second calendar quarter after the quarter in which the manufacturer hits the 200,000 vehicle US sales mark. From there, all qualifying vehicles sold by the manufacturer are eligible for 50% of their specified credit for the first two quarters and 25% of the credit for the next two quarters.
For example if a manufacturer sells its 200,000th vehicle in the first quarter (Q1) of 2018, the credit amounts for all of that manufacturer's eligible vehicles would phase out as shown in the table below.
K-MTG
Sunshade Captain of TMC
It seems they are more 3's on that lot alone compared to the number of 3's delivered in CA.
It's always possible something appeared OK when they started production, but once they got into it, it is possible something turned out to have a problem.
Miscalculated in my head. It is possible the Model 3 has hit production stride. In any case it isn't unusual to have a fair number of cars parked at the factory.
TaoJones
Beyond Driven
Nope. Dhanson's correct. See Phaseout table near bottom of Federal Tax Credits for Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Cars.
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