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Discussion in 'Energy, Environment, and Policy' started by jbcarioca, Jul 7, 2017.
France to ban sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
This is really nothing. In the next 23 years a lot will change. Fossil fuel will probably die a natural death before that.
I'm more impressed with Norway, India, etc who have proposed more ambitious targets.
I quoted an English language report. Those have left out a few large issues:
Nicolas Hulot présente son "plan climat": voitures polluantes, mauvaises isolations et énergies fossiles dans le collimateur
among them that there will be zero new permits for carbon-based power generation, effective now. In addition the clear intent is not to set 2040 for banning only new sales for ICE, but to eliminate them from service by then. To that end the government is preparing several long-term measures to encourage poor people to buy electric.
By no means do I want to diminish the importance of Norway's very early leadership, the India very, very ambitious goals and those of so many other places.
My present excitement is that the plans around the world are gaining specificity from large consumers/producers of ICE and carbon-based power generation. Rather than just goals we are now seeing direct policies.
Now we need Italy, Japan, Korea, all of Germany, Canada, Brazil, Mexico and so on to move with these developments. Eventually we just might see even the USA cease to impede human progress.
So, I apologize for not mention other who came before. I only reacted because France is moving faster and more comprehensively than have other major producers/polluters. Without a doubt progress will be disruptive.
Thanks for the additional information. France (and most of the rest of the world) are leaving the US back in the fossil age.
Looks like a 100 euro per ton CO2 tax also by 2030:
Le gouvernement souhaite aussi que le prix de la tonne de carbone passe à 100 euros d'ici 2030, bien que le prix ne soit pas encore fixé officiellement puisqu'il dépendra d'une loi de finance (votée donc pas des parlementaires).
I think this is going to be much more difficult than what most think. This link shows the problems of replacing fossil fuels with renewables.
Renewable Energy: the question of Capacity / Load factor: 2016
It becomes very difficult to provide the needed power especially during the winter. As this link shows the capacity factors for wind and solar tend to be quite low. If you look at it on a daily, weekly or monthly basis it gets worse.
France has nuclear.
This is really good news though I think that the timeline can be moved up significantly, perhaps to 2025. By then the preowned market should make it very easy for virtually anyone to get an EV. For those that can't, exceptions can be granted as long as there is justification.
In the French press,
"Conservative Le Figaro harrumphed about the government’s plans to retire all petrol and diesel engines by 2040. “Pity for the motorists!” ran its front page editorial."
Hamburg protesters to G20 leaders: ‘Welcome to hell’
Where do you see that? I see nothing that says gas/diesel fuel sales will be banned, that sale of used ICE's will be banned, or that existing ICE's will be banned from the roads. This is just about new car sales, not a total ban of all "diesel and petrol cars to be on road after 2040," as the thread title states.
Admittedly, I'm reading the Google translation of the French link, but there's a big difference between an outright ICE ban and just banning new ICE'es
Using 1000 kg per tonne, that is 10 Euro cents per Kg
A kwh of electricity generation from coal emits about 1 Kg of CO2
So ... a tax of 10 Euro cents on a kWh of electricity from coal
That is brilliant. Even half that amount would kill coal
It also kills fossil fuels for cars since it amounts to ~ 1.2 Euros tax per gallon
Le gouvernement entend aussi en finir avec la commercialisation des voitures roulant à l’essence ou au gazole en France d’ici 2040, objectif fixé à 2030 par l’Inde, a précisé M. Hulot
En savoir plus sur Nicolas Hulot : « Nous visons la fin de la vente des voitures à essence et diesel d’ici à 2040 »
yet in other quotations the word "vente" is used.
Both words cam be used as synonyms, but 'commercialization' implies support and continuing use, whereas 'venue' implies precisely nothing other than sale. M. Hulot has used both words and has described goals in more and less expansive terms in interviews. I think it is correct to say that the intention of the government has to remove ICE from service by 2040, while it is also safe to say that robust infighting could easily move to only prevent sale but allow ICE to stay on the road.
For practical purposes I think we probably can equate the Norway, France, India etc initiatives as having similar impact although the precise legislation and rules will eventually allow for both precise and accurate understanding of what each actually intend to do. None of these will end out being implemented exactly as they are being proposed. Some might think the transition will be shorter some might think these will never actually happen.
IMHO, the eventual impact will depend on technical advances, materials availabilities and infrastructure support. In all probability, I think the transition will be more rapid than was the actual adoption of automobiles. Thus, I suggest that new production of ICE will be minimal past 2040 worldwide, possibly a bit sooner. It will all come down to those three factors.
Frankly I do think M. Hulot wants a blanket ban of ICE as soon as possible. Countries such as Norway, France, Iceland and Canada have plentiful renewable energy and/or nuclear that can easily support full BEV. Others like the US, China and Russia that depend on dirty energy sources and have huge political backing for fossil fuel extraction and refinement are likely to take much longer. The questions about political will will devolve to political influence from fossil fuel extraction and distribution industries. In that respect there probably is a near certainty that the US will rapidly lose global economic influence because the transition will already have huge momentum before US government/industry adopts more progressive policies.
It is sad to see the US, Brazil, Indonesia and Japan so quickly losing momentum. Panasonic and Tesla, among other, are bright spots, but they are no match from the European and Chinese massive investments and political will.
So, I see the French story as a statement of political will rather than a specific legal position.
So what happens to the less well off citizens of France who can't afford to run out and buy a brand new electric car at the drop of a hat? What about the people who are still making loan payments on the ICE they are no longer allowed to drive? Will the banking system collapse when people default on these loans en masse? Sounds like "Let them eat cake" once again.
A ban on new sales could work (assuming electrics are equal too/better than ICE in range, performance, and price). Grounding the entire existing ICE fleet and erasing their value? Political and economic suicide.
Fossil fueled cars has always been about a perceived convenience ... like TV dinners.
I'm with @SageBrush on this one.
Not only that, 2040 is a long, long time in individual vehicle ownership terms. By 2030 or so, if:
1.Germany's EV plans work,
2. BEV cost effectiveness, energy and power density continue to advance as they are doing,
3. Vehicle manufacturers, especially European ones, meet their stated objectives,
4. National governments (in this case mostly France and Germanyl ) stick to their tax and investment priorities.
Then by 2035 or so sales of ICE will be very, very low. By 2040, even a ban of ICE operation will have modest impact. As a practical matter we can assume that farming, mining and heavy industrial equipment will be exempted or given longer times for conversion. Anyway, these sectors are not significant producers of greenhouse gasses (except cows and other multi-stomach methane producers- which do have research projects intended to reduce their negative environmental impact- in ten meantime don't eat beef or consume cow's milk!) despite their individually 'dirty' effects.
Several areas, including Singapore, have experimented with motor vehicle age restrictions that have been quite effective in minimizing older 'dirty' vehicles. Others have taxed vehicles according to their carbon footprint. These and other complementary actions, implemented gradually, will make the 2040 ban, if it happens, largely inconsequential. Poor @tga seems to seem preoccupied with any nation trying to correct the consequences of more than a century during which the fossil fuel/petroleum extraction industries have been beneficiaries of nearly global tax and political favoritism. Public policy ideally will have a longer view than only the next election cycle and should also deal with the 'greater good'.
Anyway, most advanced countries do provide some forms of encouragement for small populations that are harmed by changes for the 'greater good'.
This transition will certainly have winners and losers but the balance is already evident. The economic impact of these developments will be overwhelmingly positive.
Poor people are very creative. Given the amount of extra(redundant) resources about to flood the world, they should make out wonderfully from this point forward.
In the 12 years running up to a phase-out used ICE vehicles will have zero residual value and can be plucked up for nothing. Granted paying for fuel is going to be a major financial drag if everyone else is juicing up with nearly free electricity, but from the status quo onward things should get cheaper and cheaper for poor folks. That's the whole point.
China speaks and the world listens.
Toyota could finally start mass producing electric cars thanks to China
Even Toyota which loves H2 (in spite of physics) will be making EVs.
Actually Germany is having trouble with their renewable energy policy. The cost of power in Germany is about double what it is in the US. In addition they have started to reduce installations of wind and solar because of problems with the variability of these sources of power.
France will likely find a way to run cars on Calvados!!
IIRC Gerrmany is building out connections to France to smooth out the demand/load; and since peaking a couple years ago the high price of electricity for the retail market has been dropping as more clean power comes online. The cost of power for manufacturing has remained extremely low.
So ... beware snapshots in time, and avoid Fake news.