Elon already said Austin Model Y deliveries w/ 4680 will begin in 1Q. Given previous production ramps, I'm sure they will be very limited in the first few months but your logic is flawed. There is no CT production yet.
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Fremont 4680 indicators
- Thread starter DrivingDelta
- Start date
all you gotta do is look at the piles of FRONT megacasts stacked on the lot. There are thousands.
Once you start to see the piles shrinking or being shuffled around, you know what's what.
You can also hope some of the drone flyovers might show Front Megacasts being wheeled inside the building neighbooring the Gigapress like the Rears are.
Tesla has already said they developed a structural pack using 2170 batteries. But it's also described as a 'backup plan'.I'd wager that they built the structural pack frame to accommodate the previous 2170 pack design in some way(s). I have a May 2020 build and I'm pretty happy with it regardless. I'd say take your delivery and run with it as long as everything is "within spec".
If you really want the 4680 option down the road, I'm sure someone will happily buy your current Model Y for a pretty penny if this market continues as is
Tesla makes more profit per vehicle using 4680 in structural packs, along with both F + R megacasts.
Profit and production speed are their goals. A 2170 pack doesn't meet either of them.
So Tesla has been waiting on the 4680 to meet yield goals, then they'll pull the switch - at both Fremont and Austin.
Berlin will stick with 2170 and LFP for the foreseeable future due to supply and logistic constraints.
China and 4680 isn't known. Likely local China-produced batteries at some future time.
Ciaopec
Active Member
Ciaopec
Active Member
It's official then: Elon said so! If I had a dime for every time ....
Model Y will be first to have 4680 (aside from the SEMI prototypes).
Tesla wants 4680 and F+R megacasts as soon as possible since they enable the cars to be made faster, and they make more profit.
Those are powerful incentives, especially since Tesla has two new factories to pay for, neither of which is shipping cars yet.
It's all riding on 4680 availability, and Tesla VP Engr made public statement at the Q4 Earnings Call that Tesla has enough to meet production plans.
They also said their 4680 expectations include 3rd Party manufacturers to add to the mix, and did NOT say exactly what the 'production plans' are.
So stay tuned .....
and ignore the YouTubers clickbait BSSo true, I've fallen for these a couple times now. Now I just put the channel on ignore if they're rehashing someones elses content....
Too bad youtube got rid of the dislike button so it's impossible to discern between good vs low quality content
What would be a lie in this case? Many of us are in tech, and when we project manage, we provide a roadmap and ETAs to our partners and stakeholders. It's part of the planning and projection, because every project needs an ETA whether it's realistic or not. There's bugs and issues along the way, and we have to revise our plans. In fact, most of the time when we do projections, we provide estimates for best case scenarios give or take a few days/weeks/months. Are we "lying" when we don't meet those deadlines because of unforeseen circumstances or underestimated the difficulty? Are people at Google, FB, Microsoft, Apple, and other big names liars, because of missed projections daily? If Elon gives a projection based on what he thinks is feasible, but it is delayed, I don't consider that lying because I've been part of product lifecycles for years.
I don't think his projections were ever based even on internal estimates. He's trying to pump up the stock. And successful at it.
Even ignoring FSD, he's lied about other things. Like the refresh S/X being in production during last year's investor call. They did not enter production until much later that year. Can't really say that's an issue of optimistic projections.
Tesla is already at least a decade ahead of any other auto maker, AFAIC and even his older cars are getting better with every update unlike any other car. If his biggest issue is that his estimates are a year or two behind making him only 8 or 9 years ahead of other auto makers, I'll gladly take that. I'd rather he take the time and do it right rather than rush crap to market just to make his prediction accurate. It's honestly rather a refreshing bucking of the trend in every industry these days.
