Fremont reject rates could limit production volumes

[DanL3]

So I am wondering if anyone knows what percentage of cars coming off the line in Freemont need to be repaired or reworked? Back in the late 60’s when ford was making Mustangs and Cougars in that factory it was below 5%, probably more like 1%. Does anyone know what that number is for the Tesla S/X line? And then what is it for the model 3?


This can be a production volume limiter. Let’s look at the numbers. Bloomberg says they did 1025 last week. That is about 200 a day. They probably only have room for about 50 cars in the repair area so if they fill that area, then they have to slow down the line.


So a 25% reject rate holds them at this 1000 cars/week level. To get to 2500 cars per week they need to cut the reject rate to 10% and for the end of Q2 they need to be down to 5% rejects.

(Mod note: changed ‘will’ in thread title to ‘could’)

 

[smartypnz]

Looking for a large number. OK, I will give you 87%. You can quote me.

Bloomberg has no inside info - they are guessing based on reports from people NOT in the know. Just as you're guessing the room for cars in the repair area - as if there is such a place.

Of course - doesn't mean anything. If it is indeed a 'thing', it would be fluid and ever changing, sometimes swiftly. Also, corrections would be done swiftly. Any number given would be obsolete before reported.

 

[CalBlue 85D]

Ford didn't build cars there, it was GM's Fremont Assembly plant where they built a variety of GM cars and trucks. It was also known as one of GM's most troubled plants, which was why the NUMMI joint venture with Toyota was such an amazing turnaround.

Fremont Assembly - Wikipedia

 

[mkspeedr]

Ford didn't build cars there, it was GM's Fremont Assembly plant where they built a variety of GM cars and trucks. It was also known as one of GM's most troubled plants, which was why the NUMMI joint venture with Toyota was such an amazing turnaround.

Fremont Assembly - Wikipedia

Ford built Mustangs and Cougars down the road at what is now the Great Mall - Milpitas

 

[aronth5]

So I am wondering if anyone knows what percentage of cars coming off the line in Freemont need to be repaired or reworked? Back in the late 60’s when ford was making Mustangs and Cougars in that factory it was below 5%, probably more like 1%. Does anyone know what that number is for the Tesla S/X line? And then what is it for the model 3?


This can be a production volume limiter. Let’s look at the numbers. Bloomberg says they did 1025 last week. That is about 200 a day. They probably only have room for about 50 cars in the repair area so if they fill that area, then they have to slow down the line.


So a 25% reject rate holds them at this 1000 cars/week level. To get to 2500 cars per week they need to cut the reject rate to 10% and for the end of Q2 they need to be down to 5% rejects.

Do you honestly think anyone has the answer to your questions and even if they did would post them here?
Everything else is pure conjecture and guess work without any basis in reality.

 

[scaesare]

I'd suggest not titling threads as assertions when you are asking questions, have no supporting data, or are musing.

Comes across as trollish or bearish.

 

[azred]

I'd suggest not titling threads as assertions when you are asking questions, have no supporting data, or are musing.

Comes across as trollish or bearish.

Maybe the OP is Seeking Alpha. Alpha is sometimes hard to find.

 

[DanL3]

I'd suggest not titling threads as assertions when you are asking questions, have no supporting data, or are musing.

Comes across as trollish or bearish.

You are right, I did miss-state the title for the thread. Sorry about that.

I am not a troll and I am not bearish on Tesla or the model 3. I do have a reservation. I do apologize to anyone that got those feelings from this thread.

 

[Electroman]

Comes across as trollish or bearish.

.. or foolish

 

[DanL3]

Looking for a large number. OK, I will give you 87%. You can quote me.

Bloomberg has no inside info - they are guessing based on reports from people NOT in the know. Just as you're guessing the room for cars in the repair area - as if there is such a place.

Of course - doesn't mean anything. If it is indeed a 'thing', it would be fluid and ever changing, sometimes swiftly. Also, corrections would be done swiftly. Any number given would be obsolete before reported.

Thanks for the guess. Your guess is as good as mine. What is valid is that in order for production rates to go up, This reject rate needs to be dropping.

 

[scaesare]

You are right, I did miss-state the title for the thread. Sorry about that.

I am not a troll and I am not bearish on Tesla or the model 3. I do have a reservation. I do apologize to anyone that got those feelings from this thread.

Cool.

Let's hope this isn't an issue and you get your 3 as soon as possible.

(and @Eclectic can reconcile his disagree with my post with the OP's subsequent comments...)

 

[DanL3]

Ford built Mustangs and Cougars down the road at what is now the Great Mall - Milpitas

Yes, My mistake. I had mentioned to Ford because my dad had worked there.

 

[mkspeedr]

Yes, My mistake. I had mentioned to Ford because my dad had worked there.

Maybe he built my beloved 1968 Cougar.

 

[gregincal]

Thanks for the guess. Your guess is as good as mine. What is valid is that in order for production rates to go up, This reject rate needs to be dropping.

Unless it's low enough already. Why do you assume the reject rate is high?

 

[DanL3]

Unless it's low enough already. Why do you assume the reject rate is high?

Hello Greg,
I worked as a Manufacturing Engineer for years. I have literally seen hundreds of production ramp-ups and over and over again the final production yield rates limit the production rates. This is so common that it is predictable that when the production ramp misses the goals that were stated just before the production ramp up that correlates to the assembly yield rates being poor.

Also it is common that the final inspection process only catches about 99% of the bad parts and issues that happen on a production line. That means that for every Model 3 that has a problem in the customers hands there were about 100 of that same problem caught at the factory. We have had less than 5000 cars delivered and we are seeing many minor issues reported. Way more than a hundred cars that have been delivered to the customer needed some level of fixing something. I am not complaining about this. Most items are minor and Tesla is great about fixing them with a minimum of discomfort to the customer, but they are happening. So that means that the reject rates on the line must have started very high.

So the hope is that Tesla is solving the root causes of those problems and making them so that "they never happen again". As that is done on each issue the line reject rates drop and then the production rate can start to climb, and then about a month later we will see a drop in customers reporting problems as they take deliver of there new Model 3.

 

[DanL3]

Maybe he built my beloved 1968 Cougar.

Did it come from the factory with the wrong Fan Belt? He put on fan belts and they had 5 or so options. if the line got moving to fast and he had a problem he had to just lay the parts on the motor and let some one down the line fix it later.

Guaranteed, your Tesla will not have the wrong Fan Belt.

 

[cpa]

Maybe he built my beloved 1968 Cougar.

We have a '67 sitting in our garage. One hundred ninety-three thousand miles. One owner. Three speed floor-mounted transmission. Our only link to the primitive years of gasoline fueled vehicles. Love this car!

 

[mkspeedr]

We have a '67 sitting in our garage. One hundred ninety-three thousand miles. One owner. Three speed floor-mounted transmission. Our only link to the primitive years of gasoline fueled vehicles. Love this car!

Very cool. I bought my 68 from the original owner when I was in high school 30 years ago. 15 years ago I rebuilt it from the ground up.

I know the GM plant had a bad reputation for quality - my Cougar was perfect. I know the Toyota guys got the quality up to world class.

My P85D has only had one issue - a loose screw in the arm rest. I fixed it and everything else has been perfect.

 

[DanL3]

Thanks to the moderator for editing the title. I had looked to edit it myself but could not find a way to do that.

 

[30seconds]

Hello Greg,
I worked as a Manufacturing Engineer for years. I have literally seen hundreds of production ramp-ups and over and over again the final production yield rates limit the production rates. This is so common that it is predictable that when the production ramp misses the goals that were stated just before the production ramp up that correlates to the assembly yield rates being poor.

Also it is common that the final inspection process only catches about 99% of the bad parts and issues that happen on a production line. That means that for every Model 3 that has a problem in the customers hands there were about 100 of that same problem caught at the factory. We have had less than 5000 cars delivered and we are seeing many minor issues reported. Way more than a hundred cars that have been delivered to the customer needed some level of fixing something. I am not complaining about this. Most items are minor and Tesla is great about fixing them with a minimum of discomfort to the customer, but they are happening. So that means that the reject rates on the line must have started very high.

So the hope is that Tesla is solving the root causes of those problems and making them so that "they never happen again". As that is done on each issue the line reject rates drop and then the production rate can start to climb, and then about a month later we will see a drop in customers reporting problems as they take deliver of there new Model 3.

This seems to be what happened with the S & X