TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC
Start a Discussionhttps://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/tags/

Frequency of AP2 updates is steadily rising (chart inside)

Discussion in 'Model S' started by calisnow, Oct 1, 2017.

Tags:
  1. calisnow

    calisnow Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2014
    Messages:
    2,565
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    Summary: The scatter plot I made below illustrates that Tesla has steadily shrunk the time intervals between AP2 software updates by almost 45% during 2017. In other words the mean time between autopilot updates was 80% greater during the first four months of 2017 than it has been during the most recent four week time period ending September 27 with the release of build 17.38. Scroll down for my more detailed explanation of the data and method after the charts.

    Screen Shot 2017-10-01 at 4.38.07 PM.png

    Screen Shot 2017-10-01 at 5.37.25 PM.png


    Intro

    As Mr. Twain said, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics." With that disclaimer out of the way I see good news here and this is fun to look at. While making an entry today for 17.38 in my AP2 tracker spreadsheet I noticed that the time between releases seems to be dropping. So for fun I averaged the time between releases (measured in weeks) for five time periods - starting with the first limited release on 12.13.16 up til now. The intervals were chosen by me to coincide with what seemed like significant dates or developments.

    Method
    • Data: My AP2 update tracker spreadsheet. I set dates for AP2 releases by looking at the earliest date I can find mention online of a particular build - either a thread on TMC or a media article.
    • Sample size: Admittedly small - 12 total releases from 12/31/16 until now. However the confidence level as measured by an r squared calculation is reasonably high. I can make another chart showing every single release and then do a linear regression but I made this one using mean-interval-between-releases because it seemed fun to compare the frequency of AP2 releases against what might be significant developments in the program.
    • Description of Intervals: The five periods in the chart are described in detail below as periods 1-5:
      • Pd 1: 12/31 - 5/6/17: All five AP2 releases prior to the commencement of the video upload deep learning program that was announced on May 6. The first release of this period was Tesla's limited, low speed initial roll out and the period ended with the release of 17.17.4, speed now up to 90 mph - and the announcement that Tesla had begun uploading large video files from cars in the wild to aid in deep learning.
      • Pd 2: 5/7 - now: All six releases after video uploads began until now - including the very first "silky smooth" June 10 (which was still prior to Karpathy joining the team as AP head).
      • Pd 3: 6/21 - now: All releases after the hiring of Andrej Karpathy. About a month passed after his hiring on 6/21 until the first release under his watch on July 20 - "silky smooth V2" - or 17.28
      • Pd 4: 7/20 - now: All releases after the first Karpathy release until now. If you remove the first release under his watch you
      • Pd 5: 8/17 - 9/27: There have been four releases from 8/17 until now. What is interesting about the three intervals between these four releases is that each has been only two weeks apart.
    Discussion

    These are obviously not contiguous time periods. The first graphed time period only contains releases prior to the video upload program. The last four graphed periods each start at the date mentioned and include all releases up til now. I did it this way to show that after Karpathy was hired the interval until the first release under his watch was a full four weeks - longer than the average intervals prior to his hiring, even though he was running the program under new conditions of a data firehose Tesla had never had before. Perhaps he was putting his own touches on method? All we know is that the mean intervals between release after Karpathy fired off the first update under his watch have dropped significantly - from four weeks for the first one to less than 2.5 for all releases after that - and that the last month has seen a further increase in update frequency - with the last three updates coming only 2 weeks apart. What this may indicate I don't know - but of course the fleet size is growing significantly each quarter. The AP2 total fleet size is now over 33% larger than when Karpathy first came on board - presumably the training data Tesla is receiving from the cars is coming in over 33% faster as well. Perhaps Tesla's progress rate is improving and so they are pushing out updates more rapidly. Perhaps they are simply working harder to meet some internal time goal for an announcement we don't know about yet. And of course the Model 3 production ramp is happening now. It seems reasonably that by the end of 2018 the AP2.X total fleet size will be 300-400% greater than it is now - and the data Tesla is receiving for reinforcement training will be coming in at a correspondingly increased rate. Or - perhaps nothing is happening and these are just meaningless data points. :p
     
    • Informative x 2
    • Like x 2
  2. Maximapolak

    Maximapolak Member

    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2016
    Messages:
    473
    Location:
    North NJ / SouthCentral PA
    im still on 34.......so the frequency they are released don't matter if I'm not getting the newest ones.
     
  3. T_E_S_L_A

    T_E_S_L_A Member

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2016
    Messages:
    41
    Location:
    Virginia Beach
    Out of curiosity, do we have any average time frame for implementation of said updates? I often hear about updates being announced by a Tesla owner only to have weeks (months?) go by before others receive the update (or if ever).

    Disclaimer: I'm not a Tesla owner...yet.
     
    • Helpful x 1
  4. calisnow

    calisnow Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 11, 2014
    Messages:
    2,565
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    Not that I know of - some cars skip updates entirely - leaping two or three versions ahead. Tesla has never said anything about the rhyme or reason to this practice - but it is reasonable to guess that it's for testing and development purposes.
     
    • Like x 1
  5. jimmy_d

    jimmy_d Member

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2016
    Messages:
    125
    Location:
    San Francisco, CA
    I just got 40. My network monitor tells me the download was 322MB. Was wondering if anyone has been tracking the size of the downloads. This one was larger than I expected, but then I really don't have much info to compare it to.
     
    • Informative x 1
    • Like x 1
  6. outie

    outie Active Member

    Joined:
    May 22, 2016
    Messages:
    1,267
    Location:
    SoCal
    Anything new in the release notes?
     
  7. ucmndd

    ucmndd Member

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2016
    Messages:
    416
    Location:
    California
    Seems only every third or fourth release goes to the whole fleet, so for most people the effective release cadence hasn’t really changed.
     
  8. MorrisonHiker

    MorrisonHiker S 90D 2017.34 2448cfc

    Joined:
    Mar 8, 2015
    Messages:
    3,271
    Location:
    Colorado
    My average time between releases since December 2016 has been 19.5 days.

    It's been 36 days since my last update. :(
     
  9. scottf200

    scottf200 Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2013
    Messages:
    1,577
    Location:
    Chicagoland ModelX S603
    Great job.

    My crud chart showing number_of_weeks between firmware is below. i.e. Chart data point A2 is simply B3-B2. I called this WeekDiff (WkDf).

    I used the data from (ev-fw . com) Tesla Firmware Upgrade Tracker Web App "Updates by Build/Day" with some basic Google sheet functions. Props to @HankLloydRight

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    • Informative x 1
    • Like x 1

Share This Page