Sorry for the long and rambling thread. I just made my first foray into options trading, buying January 2019 put options on TSLA. Since I was previously highly positive on Tesla and was about to place an order for one a few years ago, I thought I would post the reasons why I think TSLA will approach zero in the medium to long term.
Like most people who test drive a Model S, I fell in love with the car immediately, and was ready to place an order then and there. The salesman, and the Tesla website, promised Ranger service (I forget if it was free or a nominal amount), and living far from the Tesla dealer, I wanted the Ranger service commitment in writing before I put down a deposit. Several phone calls and e-mails later, and no written commitment to their Tesla Ranger service, so i did not place my order.
I followed the Tesla news and forums, and noticed a pattern. Promises were made and not kept. Forecasted release dates for new vehicle models proved overly optimistic. Free supercharging was advertised, then people were discouraged from using the superchargers, then free supercharging got taken away. There were serious concerns about reliability and quality, and Consumer Reports dropped the vehicle from its recommended list. Overall there seemed to be a pattern of overpromising and underdelivering.
I have read optimistic production forecasts for the Model 3. I understand that they are going straight into production rather than doing a prolonged test of prototypes. Given the previous quality issues with the Model S and Model X, I question whether Tesla Motors can produce the Model 3 at an acceptable quality level, by the projected dates and in the volumes which have been forecast.
In addition, GM, Ford, Hyundai, Honda, Toyota, Volkswagen and just about every other car company is producing, or plans to produce electric vehicles. If there is one thing I have learned from studying Tesla the past few years, it is that vehicle production is an incredibly complex business. I am not so sure that Tesla is capable of competing against the big boys.
There has been an amazing run-up in the TSLA stock price, despite the company losing money. It is as if their production and quality problems do not exist, as if the major automobile manufacturers are not going to compete with them, and as if the Model 3 will somehow be profitable despite being priced far lower than the Model S.
The most probable outcomes I forsee are either bankruptcy or being bought out at a low price by a competitor in the next few years. I sincerely hope to be proven wrong. It is sad, as the Model S, when it is working, is an amazing car. Having missed some obvious bubbles in the past (Bre-X, dot-com bubble, etc) where I should have bought put options but was too scared, I am not going to miss out on this one. I have purchased options to sell 600 shares of TSLA at $220.00 by January 2019, and I am to quintuple this investment over the next few months.
Like most people who test drive a Model S, I fell in love with the car immediately, and was ready to place an order then and there. The salesman, and the Tesla website, promised Ranger service (I forget if it was free or a nominal amount), and living far from the Tesla dealer, I wanted the Ranger service commitment in writing before I put down a deposit. Several phone calls and e-mails later, and no written commitment to their Tesla Ranger service, so i did not place my order.
I followed the Tesla news and forums, and noticed a pattern. Promises were made and not kept. Forecasted release dates for new vehicle models proved overly optimistic. Free supercharging was advertised, then people were discouraged from using the superchargers, then free supercharging got taken away. There were serious concerns about reliability and quality, and Consumer Reports dropped the vehicle from its recommended list. Overall there seemed to be a pattern of overpromising and underdelivering.
I have read optimistic production forecasts for the Model 3. I understand that they are going straight into production rather than doing a prolonged test of prototypes. Given the previous quality issues with the Model S and Model X, I question whether Tesla Motors can produce the Model 3 at an acceptable quality level, by the projected dates and in the volumes which have been forecast.
In addition, GM, Ford, Hyundai, Honda, Toyota, Volkswagen and just about every other car company is producing, or plans to produce electric vehicles. If there is one thing I have learned from studying Tesla the past few years, it is that vehicle production is an incredibly complex business. I am not so sure that Tesla is capable of competing against the big boys.
There has been an amazing run-up in the TSLA stock price, despite the company losing money. It is as if their production and quality problems do not exist, as if the major automobile manufacturers are not going to compete with them, and as if the Model 3 will somehow be profitable despite being priced far lower than the Model S.
The most probable outcomes I forsee are either bankruptcy or being bought out at a low price by a competitor in the next few years. I sincerely hope to be proven wrong. It is sad, as the Model S, when it is working, is an amazing car. Having missed some obvious bubbles in the past (Bre-X, dot-com bubble, etc) where I should have bought put options but was too scared, I am not going to miss out on this one. I have purchased options to sell 600 shares of TSLA at $220.00 by January 2019, and I am to quintuple this investment over the next few months.