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From Zero to Model 3 AWD in 20 hours

jkliu47

Member
Apr 30, 2013
459
74
Glendale, CA
I am a 2 time Model S owner and a 1st day in-store Model 3 reservation holder. I held back ordering the Model 3 because the current Model S lease runs out in 2019 and was waiting for the AWD version. Then wife decided to replace her BMW (4 series) with the Model 3 (yeah!). Since 2018 is drawing to a close and I will be out of country from mid November until last few days of December, I dropped by the local Tesla store last Saturday (Sep 29) to see if we could get a Model 3 within 6 weeks before travelling.

Shouldn't be a problem I was told, then just after confirming the order, the owner advisor went back in office, and re-emerged, stating "How would you like to get your Model 3 tomorrow morning?"

Apparently they searched the system and located a Model 3 matching my order sitting in inventory at local pickup center. No need to show up Sunday morning to fight the crowds, they will deliver it to me!

So Sunday morning 9/30 I walked out of the front door to receive my brand spanking new Model 3.

Glad I could help with the Q3 delivery numbers.
 

adaptabl

Banned
Mar 13, 2018
776
-619
Canada
Getting a little concerned about 4Q sales if there are so many unsold units available now. Sure there will be a big surge in December before the federal rebates are cut in half but that will just be moving sales from Q1 2019. I really think the SR model has to come out very soon to keep the 5000/week cars from filling more lots with unsold inventory.
 

voip-ninja

Give me some sugar baby
Mar 15, 2012
4,121
4,692
Colorado
Getting a little concerned about 4Q sales if there are so many unsold units available now. Sure there will be a big surge in December before the federal rebates are cut in half but that will just be moving sales from Q1 2019. I really think the SR model has to come out very soon to keep the 5000/week cars from filling more lots with unsold inventory.

What's your source for "so many unsold units available"?

A handful of anecdotal stories of people getting lucky and getting a unit that hadn't yet been assigned? Tesla is building 4,000-6,000 of these cars per week. You know what other car sells 24,000 of in a month? Toyota Corolla. Except that car is boring as hell and costs $18,700 before dealer incentives and factory rebates.

Tesla is batch building these cars and matching them to orders. People who don't have their sh&t together with their trade in, their financing, people who are "out of the country" for weeks at a time when they need to pick the car up... or people who are squishy and decide they want a different color or configuration at the last minute result in cars sitting around that can be matched immediately to those who want them.

I have seen ZERO indication that Tesla has piles of unsold inventory other than sensationalist stories that show acres of parked cars that are awaiting distribution.

You should also put it right in your sig that your an unapologetic Tesla hater who down votes people on a minute by minute basis and hides your own profile. So, yeah, I'm sure you're "concerned".
 
Last edited:

adaptabl

Banned
Mar 13, 2018
776
-619
Canada
What's your source for "so many unsold units available"?

A handful of anecdotal stories of people getting lucky and getting a unit that hadn't yet been assigned? Tesla is building 4,000-6,000 of these cars per week. You know what other car sells 24,000 of in a month? Toyota Corolla. Except that car is boring as hell and costs $18,700 before dealer incentives and factory rebates.

Tesla is batch building these cars and matching them to orders. People who don't have their sh&t together with their trade in, their financing, people who are "out of the country" for weeks at a time when they need to pick the car up... or people who are squishy and decide they want a different color or configuration at the last minute result in cars sitting around that can be matched immediately to those who want them.

I have seen ZERO indication that Tesla has piles of unsold inventory other than sensationalist stories that show acres of parked cars that are awaiting distribution.

You should also put it right in your sig that your an unapologetic Tesla hater who down votes people on a minute by minute basis and hides your own profile. So, yeah, I'm sure you're "concerned".


I looks like Telsa is addressing this:

“Our Q3 Model 3 deliveries were limited to higher-priced variants, cash/loan transactions, and North American customers only. There remain significant opportunities to grow the addressable market for Model 3 by introducing leasing, standard battery and other lower-priced variants of the car, and by starting international deliveries.”
 

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
11,450
15,149
NC
Based on production and in-transit numbers we know there's a bit north of 8000 model 3s that are finished but not delivered as of Oct 1 morning.... that's about 10 days worth of deliveries at the average delivery rate for Q3.

How many already have buyers they're in transit to or not isn't known.
 

Gavyne

Member
Jul 27, 2018
667
1,832
SoCal
Ignore adaptabl he's from seeking alpha.

Let's not derail this thread, congratulations to getting matched up so quickly! Even better your wife is moving into the future by ditching a gasoline car. A lot of these quick matches of inventory cars have to do with people not completing their deliveries, either due to financial reasons, or their delivery schedule got rescheduled and they're unable to pickup the car.
 

cablue

Member
Feb 4, 2013
118
56
Sierra foothills
Congratulations to your wife! But, yes, I'm still waiting for our order placed 6/30. We are also current owners. We ordered a P3+, are a cash buyer, but no word yet on when we'll get ours. We're also in CA. We almost got ours this past weekend, but we were then told there wasn't one.
 

Trevor B

Active Member
Apr 2, 2016
1,161
628
USA
What's your source for "so many unsold units available"?

A handful of anecdotal stories of people getting lucky and getting a unit that hadn't yet been assigned? Tesla is building 4,000-6,000 of these cars per week. You know what other car sells 24,000 of in a month? Toyota Corolla. Except that car is boring as hell and costs $18,700 before dealer incentives and factory rebates.

Tesla is batch building these cars and matching them to orders. People who don't have their sh&t together with their trade in, their financing, people who are "out of the country" for weeks at a time when they need to pick the car up... or people who are squishy and decide they want a different color or configuration at the last minute result in cars sitting around that can be matched immediately to those who want them.

I have seen ZERO indication that Tesla has piles of unsold inventory other than sensationalist stories that show acres of parked cars that are awaiting distribution.

You should also put it right in your sig that your an unapologetic Tesla hater who down votes people on a minute by minute basis and hides your own profile. So, yeah, I'm sure you're "concerned".

Unraveling a Tesla Mystery: Lots (and Lots) of Parked Cars
 

voip-ninja

Give me some sugar baby
Mar 15, 2012
4,121
4,692
Colorado

What I read in that article is an awful lot of speculation. The article, which goes out of its way to mention that short sellers are flying drone sorties and even a turboprop sortie over these lots refuses to acknowledge that comparing photos of these lots from one week to the next shows that cars are moving constantly.

A real weakness in production, as the article implies repeatedly, should be matched with cars sitting unmoved in the same lots for weeks at a time but there's very little indication that is happening.

Another data point is that Tesla delivered more Model 3 cars than it produced in Q3 indicating that overall supply is trending down, even if Tesla miscalculated the demand between RWD cars and AWD cars.

My suspicion is that a lot of buyers who wouldn't normally purchase a $50,000 and up Tesla LR RWD car will become more and more tempted as the year end tax-credit begins to get more attention... as @MXWing points out, a lot of decisions to purchase a Tesla Model 3 are likely going to be made over the Thanksgiving dinner table, with anxious buyers snapping up whatever inventory they can take immediate possession of in order to save $7500.

Tesla very well might be stocking a small number of cars in anticipation of this and staging them at distribution hubs around the country in anticipation of a big spike in demand at the end of the year.

I do think that the # of people willing to take a $50,000-$75,000 purchase, even with credits is limited and Tesla will soon have to shift to production of SR cars, and/or plan export of excess LR production to outside of the US.
 
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MXWing

Well-Known Member
Oct 13, 2016
7,301
17,939
USA
plan export of excess LR production to outside of the US.

We are soooo US centric in our thinking it’s unfair. The Model 3 reveal was for the whole world and not just us.

We are clamoring for the lowest cost Tesla’s and the whole world would love to get a AWD or P, LR anything they can take!
 

adaptabl

Banned
Mar 13, 2018
776
-619
Canada
What I read in that article is an awful lot of speculation. The article, which goes out of its way to mention that short sellers are flying drone sorties and even a turboprop sortie over these lots refuses to acknowledge that comparing photos of these lots from one week to the next shows that cars are moving constantly.

A real weakness in production, as the article implies repeatedly, should be matched with cars sitting unmoved in the same lots for weeks at a time but there's very little indication that is happening.

Another data point is that Tesla delivered more Model 3 cars than it produced in Q3 indicating that overall supply is trending down, even if Tesla miscalculated the demand between RWD cars and AWD cars.

My suspicion is that a lot of buyers who wouldn't normally purchase a $50,000 and up Tesla LR RWD car will become more and more tempted as the year end tax-credit begins to get more attention... as @MXWing points out, a lot of decisions to purchase a Tesla Model 3 are likely going to be made over the Thanksgiving dinner table, with anxious buyers snapping up whatever inventory they can take immediate possession of in order to save $7500.

Tesla very well might be stocking a small number of cars in anticipation of this and staging them at distribution hubs around the country in anticipation of a big spike in demand at the end of the year.

I do think that the # of people willing to take a $50,000-$75,000 purchase, even with credits is limited and Tesla will soon have to shift to production of SR cars, and/or plan export of excess LR production to outside of the US.

They already said that:

“Our Q3 Model 3 deliveries were limited to higher-priced variants, cash/loan transactions, and North American customers only. There remain significant opportunities to grow the addressable market for Model 3 by introducing leasing, standard battery and other lower-priced variants of the car, and by starting international deliveries.”
 

MXWing

Well-Known Member
Oct 13, 2016
7,301
17,939
USA

The most hilarious contradiction in my opinion of that article is:

"That may dovetail with a new headache that has cropped up: severe shortages of replacement parts. Some owners needing collision repairs have complained of waiting a month or longer for new bumpers, centers, door panels and taillights to arrive."

So instead of having replacement parts, Tesla is using parts to build new vehicles that NO ONE WANTS instead?
 

Carotene

Member
Feb 26, 2018
103
256
MD

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spesler

Member
Jul 6, 2018
337
468
Atlanta, GA USA
I think there are a few extra white interiors hanging around in inventory right now. Got a sales pitch today from a delivery advisor suggesting earlier delivery (no vin for black interior AWD).
 
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RFernatt

Solar/EV Owner/Enthusiast
Oct 13, 2016
645
3,363
Eastern Panhandle, West Virginia
Getting a little concerned about 4Q sales if there are so many unsold units available now. Sure there will be a big surge in December before the federal rebates are cut in half but that will just be moving sales from Q1 2019. I really think the SR model has to come out very soon to keep the 5000/week cars from filling more lots with unsold inventory.

For every "I got my car in 24 hours story" I would hazard to guess that there are many times that "I'm a reservation holder still waiting on a car" stories. There probably is some slack for RWD cars, but AWD and P not so much.
 
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Reactions: qwer and adaptabl

SoCalGuy

Active Member
Apr 22, 2012
1,416
1,095
So Cal & New York, NY
I am a 2 time Model S owner and a 1st day in-store Model 3 reservation holder. I held back ordering the Model 3 because the current Model S lease runs out in 2019 and was waiting for the AWD version. Then wife decided to replace her BMW (4 series) with the Model 3 (yeah!). Since 2018 is drawing to a close and I will be out of country from mid November until last few days of December, I dropped by the local Tesla store last Saturday (Sep 29) to see if we could get a Model 3 within 6 weeks before travelling.

Shouldn't be a problem I was told, then just after confirming the order, the owner advisor went back in office, and re-emerged, stating "How would you like to get your Model 3 tomorrow morning?"

Apparently they searched the system and located a Model 3 matching my order sitting in inventory at local pickup center. No need to show up Sunday morning to fight the crowds, they will deliver it to me!

So Sunday morning 9/30 I walked out of the front door to receive my brand spanking new Model 3.

Glad I could help with the Q3 delivery numbers.
What ext color and interior? 19s?
 

dsvick

Closed
Jun 10, 2016
2,198
2,214
NE Ohio
You know what other car sells 24,000 of in a month? Toyota Corolla. Except that car is boring as hell and costs $18,700 before dealer incentives and factory rebates.
Hey now... I drive a Corolla. Oh wait, it's boring as hell and I'm giving it to my son and getting a model 3. Carry on ....
 
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RFernatt

Solar/EV Owner/Enthusiast
Oct 13, 2016
645
3,363
Eastern Panhandle, West Virginia
I think there are a few extra white interiors hanging around in inventory right now. Got a sales pitch today from a delivery advisor suggesting earlier delivery (no vin for black interior AWD).

Yeah, I wish my white interior AWD would become available. Maybe it's an east coast thing with rescheduling appointments due to no cars available. I've been scheduled, rescheduled, unscheduled, and just moved out a week due to no VIN available.
 

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