Frustrated by Dual Motor Delay?

[MCJ_IP]

I have a March 31 reservation and live in Ohio. This means that I could potentially get a RWD car either late 2017 or early 2018--likely within the full Federal tax credit window.

Unfortunately, it seems that by the time a dual motor version of the car is available for purchase, the Federal tax credit may be $1,750, down from $7,500. Assuming that the dual motor upgrade is $5,000, it would effectively cost $10,750. I would love to get a Model 3 sooner, but I simply can't go with a RWD car, regardless of how well people claim RWD Tesla vehicles handle in the snow. There is a reason auto makers ship very few RWD cars to areas that get snow. I understand the "production hell" explanation, but the full year delay is pretty frustrating, particularly when the result is that those of us with March 31 orders who require AWD miss out on most of the tax credit while others who ordered much later, but do not live in areas with heavy snow, jump ahead in line.

Of all of the noted complaints on this site regarding the design, delivery or cost of the Model 3, this is issue that frustrates me most by far. I can't be alone on this, right?

 

[Thomas Edison]

Yes, it sucks, must make a decision, life is hard, #middle to upper class problems

 

[Ulmo]

I have a March 31 reservation and live in Ohio. This means that I could potentially get a RWD car either late 2017 or early 2018--likely within the full Federal tax credit window.

View attachment 240926

Unfortunately, it seems that by the time a dual motor version of the car is available for purchase, the Federal tax credit may be $1,750, down from $7,500.

Where is the math on this? I thought they'd have plenty of time to sell many all wheel drive cars to early reservation holders during the full federal tax reduction period. We calculated this many times in the investment forums and I never saw much hurry for early reservation holders. I could be wrong.

It requires a careful reading of the law and regulation regarding the matter, and some astute arithmetic. Of course, this has been done, and is here on TMC. Is there a disconnect between that work and Model 3 buyer expectations, or am I the one who is wrong in my memory?

 

[Litzy]

You're not alone. I'm on the same position and it means I will probably suffer and get the RWD. I'm not happy about it but I can't wait that long for AWD. My car probably won't last that long, and the price difference isn't worth it.

I'm hoping that the estimate is a little off and it will come out sooner, but not expecting it.

 

[No2DinosaurFuel]

If enough people select the AWD version in their reservation then tesla might actually put more resources in getting out sooner. That is what I did. I am not getting the RWD even though I live in CA. There are other benefits to AWD beside driving in snow.

 

[shrspeedblade]

If they hit 200k in Q1 2018, won't the $7500 last until June 30 and the $3750 for two quarters after that which would be the end of the year?

With the lower S&X deliveries so far and the fairly slow Model 3 ramp it is increasingly what it most likely- might even be what they are planning on.

 

[MCJ_IP]

I think the math is that the full tax credit ends the quarter after Tesla hits 200,000 (I think). I believe the $3,750 ends 6 months later. If the full credit ends March 31 (which it may), then the $3.750 will end Sept. 30, and the $1,750 will end March 31, 2019. October delivery could easily take you out of both the $7,500 and the $3,750 tax credit, unless I misunderstand it.

 

[MCJ_IP]

If enough people select the AWD version in their reservation then tesla might actually put more resources in getting out sooner. That is what I did. I am not getting the RWD even though I live in CA. There are other benefits to AWD beside driving in snow.

We can hope.

 

[Trips]

Where is the math on this? I thought they'd have plenty of time to sell many all wheel drive cars to early reservation holders during the full federal tax reduction period. We calculated this many times in the investment forums and I never saw much hurry for early reservation holders. I could be wrong...

The credit should be halved by Q3 when they are released.

Get a cheap SUV or take an Lyft/Tesla Network on those snow days.

 

[No2DinosaurFuel]

I think the math is that the full tax credit ends the quarter after Tesla hits 200,000 (I think). I believe the $3,750 ends 6 months later. If the full credit ends March 31 (which it may), then the $3.750 will end Sept. 30, and the $1,750 will end March 31, 2019. October delivery could easily take you out of both the $7,500 and the $3,750 tax credit, unless I misunderstand it.

Some people here are optimistic. My calculations are if you get the model 3 AWD delivered by Sept 30 2018 you should at least get the 3750. Anything delivered after this for the 3750 is luck IMO. I like to plan for the worst instead of planning for the best.

 

[Jtrader]

I guess motors are hard to make and it will take time to ramp up to making twice as many per week as needed in the beginning.

 

[shrspeedblade]

Just to clarify:

-The $7500 lasts through the end of the quarter they hit 200k and one more quarter: so if they hit it in early January it would be June 30, 2018.

-The $3750 lasts for TWO MORE QUARTERS after that: so in this scenario December 31, 2018.
-And finally the $1875 until 6/30/19.

Move all this up one quarter if they manage to hit 200k by the end of this year, but it's looking more and more doubtful.

 

[Mark Z]

Buy the RWD M3 for clear days and use the tax savings and lower price savings for a used AWD ICE vehicle for snow days.

Contact your insurance company about cost savings that could occur by making the cheaper ICE car the primary car. In states without accident forgiveness there is a huge difference. By having my 2009 Escalade the primary car, an accident where I am at fault causes a $250 a year increase no matter what vehicle I am driving. If my cheaper Model S was the primary, then $700 more per year. The highest priced Model X, a staggering $1,000 a year if it was the primary. This is dependent on the state and insurance company. Contact your agent and ask questions on how to save IF an unexpected accident were to take place.

 

[voip-ninja]

I guess motors are hard to make and it will take time to ramp up to making twice as many per week as needed in the beginning.

I doubt that's it at all. The Model 3 is using a new permanent magnet motor. The front axle will likely need a smaller version of this matter to keep the weight down and prevent it from taking up too much of the front cargo area.

This is a process that can take a couple of years, not a few months.

The motor is probably in development and Tesla probably has a reasonable idea of how long it's going to take to test the engineering prototypes, do the software for it (different than their other cars I imagine), and put it into wide scale production.

Q4 of next year could be optimistic for them... I highly doubt it's going to be arriving earlier than that.

Even the big boys (BMW, Mercedes) do their RWD cars first with the AWD ones showing up 6-12 months later when it's a brand new platform... and they have way more engineers working on this stuff than Tesla does.

 

[BluestarE3]

Tesla is probably frustrated as well that they can't produce the AWD and Performance versions right off the bat. Just a guess on my part, but maybe these other models will require additional engineering and testing vs. the RWD model, so they're not ready for release under Elon's revised (and accelerated) launch plan. Also, once Tesla hits the 200K mark, the quarterly countdown commences, so it behooves Tesla to produce and deliver as many cars as possible to ensure the most people get all or some of the credit (Elon stated this as a goal). They may be able to produce more of the simpler RWD cars vs. the AWD or Performance models in the same amount of time.

 

[KarenRei]

Responses to various people:

* There is no way Tesla is going to make a second type of motor. I think they've been very clear about this. They even plan to use "the motor" from M3 on Semi. They plan to use this motor (singular) in a variety of products. They're not making two completely different ones.

* Twice as many motors is a real issue. If they're motor-constrained - which they might well be - then doubling the motors would be halving the production rate.

* Telling someone from Ohio to buy a AWD ICE car for "snow days" is to tell them to not drive electric for the entire winter. It's slippery for pretty much the whole winter in Ohio.

* Why is it "looking more and more doubtful" that they'll hit 200k? I've seen no signs of delay.

* AWD on Model S costs about $5k extra. Musk said it would be cheaper on M3. So I wouldn't assume it'll cost $5k.

 

[kengchang]

Weren't Alpha car already Dual Motor?

 

[aronth5]

I doubt that's it at all. The Model 3 is using a new permanent magnet motor. The front axle will likely need a smaller version of this matter to keep the weight down and prevent it from taking up too much of the front cargo area.
This is a process that can take a couple of years, not a few months.
The motor is probably in development and Tesla probably has a reasonable idea of how long it's going to take to test the engineering prototypes, do the software for it (different than their other cars I imagine), and put it into wide scale production.

Doubtful the motor is still in development since the prototypes at the March 31st reveal already had dual motors which the drivers confirmed during rides.

 

[03DSG]

Weren't Alpha car already Dual Motor?

Yes, according to the drivers.

 

[Bokonon]

Weren't Alpha car already Dual Motor?

Yes, the prototypes at the first reveal were dual-motor, according to the drivers... but it's possible that those motors weren't the production-intent motors for Model 3.