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Frustrated with FSD timeline

Discussion in 'Model S' started by Bladerskb, Apr 14, 2017.

  1. Bladerskb

    Bladerskb Like how many times do i have to be right?

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    #1 Bladerskb, Apr 14, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2017
    [​IMG]

    So on 23rd Jan 2017 Elon promised that FSD feature will be here. Its 9 days from 3 months mark and we are not even at full parity with AP1.

    Let alone EAP specific features such as autosteer+ on non-divided local roads, on ramp / off ramp, self lane changing, smart summon and self parking.

    [​IMG]

    We are supposed to have that weeks ago and preparing to get the update to enable something like stopping at traffic lights, stop sign, make turns, navigating roundabouts maybe?

    Right now we have nothing, nothing but more hype statements to sell more cars, raise stock market and have naïve people pay $8,000 of their hard earned money on a fantasy FSD.

    Its been 7 months and we still don't have full parity AP1 after being promised we would have not only it but EAP features.

    The "6 months definitely" doesn't matter because the 3 months was used to generate hype and headlines when tesla isn't even anywhere close.

    Its like saying we will beat the Warriors in 4 games but 7 games definitely.
    Making that statement you already know what everyone pays attention to is that you said you will sweep the warriors and that will be the headline and the point of the statement.

    I predicted exactly how long the updates would take and was down voted to hell and yet I was right.
    Enhanced Autopilot 2 may never happen before Full Self Driving is ready!

    Elon being challenged about his 3 months statement points to his "maybe"
     
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  2. kingjamez

    kingjamez Member

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    Predicting the future, particularly when it comes to software development is impossible. Elon gave his best guess, it's probably wrong. It happens.

    Everybody knows Elon time is not earth time. It's always been that way, and likely always will be.

    Now, I do think it was foolish for them to announce FSD and start charging for it so early. I'd be SHOCKED if we have anything resembling FSD 2 years from now. I'd be even more shocked if they do with with AP2 hardware.

    -Jim
     
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  3. Haxster

    Haxster Member

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    Elon may be using the Mars calendar.
     
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  4. Bladerskb

    Bladerskb Like how many times do i have to be right?

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    Me and you know quite well it was not a guess, nor was December for both AP1 parity and EAP feature completion a guess. Its falsified statement to build hype and sell cars and stock. stop defending what's obvious. This is coming from a software engineer.

    The whole elon time joke is played out, its really not funny anymore.
     
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  5. kingjamez

    kingjamez Member

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    #5 kingjamez, Apr 14, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2017
    And you as a software engineer have never given an estimate to a boss that turned out to be too short?

    You've never had a task end up being more complicated than you thought it would be?

    Answer honestly.

    I regularly contract for and receive said estimates from software engineers. They are never on time, or under budget.

    You clearly know Elon's time warp. Why are you angry if you know the history? Fool me once I think?

    I'm also convinced that if everybody who worked for him was as smart as him or worked as hard as him, his time lines would always be accurate. ;)

    Lighten up.
    -Jim
     
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  6. Derek Kessler

    Derek Kessler Member

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    Never take any timeline that Elon tweets at face value. He is always overly optimistic to the point that he's constantly setting Tesla owners and would-be owners up for frequent disappointment and frustration.

    I highly doubt he's acting maliciously.
     
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  7. Patrick W

    Patrick W Active Member

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    Well, he could always do like Microsoft and release it before it's ready... :)
     
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  8. calisnow

    calisnow Active Member

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    @Bladerskb - what Tesla do you own? Your sig doesn't say.
     
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  9. ohmman

    ohmman Maximum Plaid Member

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    The last time I did something that took me less time than I thought it would was when I installed my trailer brake controller in my Model X. The time before that was when I fixed a flat tire on a bike in 1984.
     
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  10. kavyboy

    kavyboy Member

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    Why does that matter?
     
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  11. eloder

    eloder Active Member

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    I suggest you re-read the tweet.
     
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  12. S4WRXTTCS

    S4WRXTTCS Active Member

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    You gotta pay attention to the details of what Elon says.

    He never said the FSD feature. He was answering a question by someone really asking when Tesla would throw FSD owners a bone.

    He didn't give any details about how FSD would noticeable depart, and simply gave a ridiculous timeline for this mysterious divergence. You know any time line that is 3-6 months is pretty much BS.

    I believe he eluded to a safety element in a later tweet since the FSD allows the usage of all the cameras.
     
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  13. spentan

    spentan Active Member

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    You do realize, that within the next 3 months, they could release Stop Sign Recognition, Traffic Light Recognition, something fairly minor (in Beta), and it will still be considered FSD Features.

    Also because it's Elon, the maybe is unlikely, the Definitely is a maybe. So We're looking at features related to FSD within the next 3 months.

    Which is totally fine by me

    EDIT: @S4WRXTTCS are you a wizard?
     
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  14. JHWJR

    JHWJR Member

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    I agree. But I also think that he imposes very ambitious "deadlines" to create pressure on himself and the company. And by doing so, he gets things done that "should have" taken a lot longer.

    If they took away all that I accomplished the night before it was due, I'd have accomplished a whole lot less in this life.
     
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  15. Canuck

    Canuck Active Member

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    This is actually quite funny. Of course, he didn't do it intentionally, just to "build hype and sell cars and stock", but let's assume for the sake of argument it's true. Who here is mad they bought the stock and a car? Not me! I'm suppose to mad at the stock price? Okay... :rolleyes:

    Also, it's funny because if you actually follow Elon Musk (not just select tweets but his life), he's not the type of person @Bladerskb makes him out to be. He's all about the risk and challenge and not about the money. Yes, he's wildly overly optimistic, and promises some things he delivers late, but I don't see him doing that for the money when risked a lot of his money expecting Tesla to fail.

    Then Tesla became worth more than Ford and GM. I guess that's just:

    Okay, right.
     
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  16. S4WRXTTCS

    S4WRXTTCS Active Member

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    One of the things that drives me a bit nuts about Elon is he over-promises, and under-delivers. It does because I'm strongly aligned to under promising, and over delivering. That way I hardly ever make promises that I can't keep.

    It also feels like society is more accepting of BS than in any time I can remember.

    But, lots of people will argue that he can still deliver more as a result of constantly sticking his neck out. That you have to take these kinds of risks, and hope things work out.

    I tend to be a realist though so I'm not going to bet my money on it until I see something more tangible.
     
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  17. kavyboy

    kavyboy Member

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    Well, for me personally as a computer programmer, the formula I use factors in both my ego and reality: I estimate the maximum it could possibly ever take to complete the task, and double it. My best project managers know their staff and add their own fudge factors for each of us code toads. We nail our targets and our clients are very happy. There's no time warp, sleeping on the assembly line, unreal expectations, or appeal to "ooga-booga software's a black art".
    The reality is that not everyone is a Musk or a Ramanujan or Torvalds. We need those Übermensch, no doubt, but they in turn should understand that the speed of progress is also a function of us plebes.
    In other words, a guy as smart as Mr Musk should know the limits of the real world and/or surround himself with the people who do.
    </soapbox>
     
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  18. CmdrThor

    CmdrThor Active Member

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    Kudos to you. I was so afraid of damaging my baby that it took me a very long time to install my brake controller. Most of the time was just looking and evaluating though. If I had to do a second one it would go super fast.
     
  19. JoeZ

    JoeZ Member

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    My Model X does not even have working cruise control after 8.1...and now you are telling me we gonna have full self driving...lol tbh Lvl5 will not happen on HW2. HW2 is lvl4 at its best.
     
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  20. JoeZ

    JoeZ Member

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    Otherwise there is no point that tesla is testing lidar right now.
     

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