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Frustrated with FSD timeline

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There are basically two kinds of data in this, or so the argument goes: the kind you can use to train a neural network - and the kind of data that might be useful otherwise to train or validate your auto-driving system. The assumption so far has been that it only sends the latter and that former is done by Tesla themselves.

Any comments on that based on this data amount? Or this summary? I am no expect, so I will not even begin to guess.

If they are only sending the data to validate as you assume, what data are they using to train the system? Employees driving around a hand full of cars? It does not seem to be enough raw data to train the system, but I could be wrong.

To me it seems like the right amount of data to send almost everything the driver is doing in 6500 miles over the 4-5 months. Unless we are all thinking they are not smart enough to compress video and raw data.

They are clearly using the onboard supercomputer processors in the car to make decisions about what to do in certain circumstances so it would also make sense that they could use it to decide what things it does not understand and mark that raw data to be saved long enough to transmit it over Wifi back to the mother ship, though based on the 1-1.5g per day for a guy who drives an hour a day seems about right for compressed video/image and data from 8 cameras and sensors.
 
From Electrec just today:

Waymo deploys 500 self-driving Pacifica hybrid minivans in Phoenix for rides open to public

Electrec said:
The 500 minivans are adding to the existing 100 that Waymo outfitted with its self-driving sensors already – bringing the total to 600 and making it the largest captive self-driving test fleet. Only Tesla with its open fleet of vehicles in customers’ hands can potentially gather more data, but as far as captive fleets, Waymo is now the clear leader.

More vehicles result in more data, which in turn accelerate the program and its potential commercialization. Considering that we are talking about a 6-fold increase here, we could see a significant step forward by Waymo with the data gathered from this new fleet.

I am pretty sure that Tesla is gathering as much data from HW2 as possible. Know one knows how much or what form it takes, but more cars equals more data, which makes FSD possible.
 
So about an hour a day on average of driving and about an hour a day worth's of data. Makes sense to me, going back to my response earlier to the notion that it would require 100-150gigs of data:



The whole point of shadow mode and machine learning is to feed the system data. You do not have to feed it every second of every mile that people drive and you do not have to feed it completely raw uncompressed camera data from all 8 cameras.

Wrong. You don't feed NN unlabeled data. That's not how it works. All frame must be human labeled.

The point of shadow mode is to be a validation tool. Elon has said this many times yet people like you try to hype it into something else.
 
Wrong. You don't feed NN unlabeled data. That's not how it works. All frame must be human labeled.

The point of shadow mode is to be a validation tool. Elon has said this many times yet people like you try to hype it into something else.

Not all frames need to be labeled, only the frames that the machine cannot label based on what it has already learned. You kind of contradicted your own argument. What frames exactly are being labeled by humans if not frames from HW2 cars in the wild. Are there an army of Tesla employees driving around the country?

I agree Elon said that shadow mode would be for validation, but he did not say that it would not also be for learning. Just because someone says apples come from those trees over there, they don't actually have to tell you that they are eating the apples, you can make that assumption for yourself.
 
Uh ok...I haven't checked the data in a month since I haven't gotten an update but I'll look tonight and take a screen capture of I have time and care but frankly it is what it is. I have no idea what the data is or whether Tesla actually does anything but it's a fact my car sends this data to them. You can choose not to believe without proof.

I car about facts not opinion. This isn't a question about belief. Proof is what makes something a fact. Facts don't care about your feelings. I need facts that have been coraborated by multiple people. If Tesla were uploading 2gigs daily/weekly it would be well known. Yet no one has mentioned it.
 
I car about facts not opinion. This isn't a question about belief. I need facts that have been coraborated by multiple people. If Tesla were uploading 2gigs daily/weekly it would be well known. Yet no one has mentioned it.

Good luck finding actual facts about Tesla's proprietary secret sauce. The rest of us will use our brains to try to figure out what is going on.

Since when did 2gigs/day become a lot. Could it possibly be that no one checked because people just assumed that the car was uploading data? Or they did check and they didnt think it was any revelation that it was happening. Like Croman here didnt come on TMC freaked out that his car was uploading a whopping DSL modems worth of data a day and only thought to mention it when we started discussing it.
 
To me it seems like the right amount of data to send almost everything the driver is doing in 6500 miles over the 4-5 months. Unless we are all thinking they are not smart enough to compress video and raw data.

Again you can't train the system by collecting raw video data and simply feeding it.

Mobileye for example has 600 labeling data for them.

Tesla uses the modular DNN approach like everyone else. So for example they have a deep neural network that detects cars and a separate DNN that detects pedestrians. How deep learning works is that you have millions of pictures of cars that have been human labeled. Each picture has been cut and trimmed to only have that car so images can for example be 124 by 124 pixels. You feed those pictures to a model running on a datacenter server and that model now knows how to detect a car if you showed it.


You can also have models with different category detection. For example pedestrians, car, van, truck, traffic sign, traffic sign.

For training, Each category would be a different folder and each folder would have about one million pictures of that category. Each folder name will then act as the label for each picture when they go into the model. You then train your model using a database server cluster. Now your model learned how to detect all the above categories.

However, using individual models for each category would lead to better accuracy as your layers would only have to learn from what it needs.

For developing a tight bounding box, you need more input variables than just picture and label. You draw a box (can be 3d) representation the hieght width and length of car depending on it's orientation. This is then translated to numerical values for each picture and feed into a model.

This is how you come out with 3d bounding box around cars.

Same with distance of objects and recognition and classifying objects, image segmentation. Everything MUST be labeled.

They are clearly using the onboard supercomputer processors in the car to make decisions about what to do in certain circumstances so it would also make sense that they could use it to decide what things it does not understand and mark that raw data to be saved long enough to transmit it over Wifi back to the mother ship, though based on the 1-1.5g per day for a guy who drives an hour a day seems about right for compressed video/image and data from 8 cameras and sensors.

A computer doesn't understand what it doesn't understand as it pertains to Vision. All it sees are pixels which are numbers RGB 0-255.

So it can't look at an image and say well that's a car i haven't seen before because it won't know what it's looking at is a car or anything all.
 
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There are alot of people with tesla who have looked and listened for uploads and they say there are none significant uploads going on. The only one not using their brain would be you to not detect an obvious lie.
You ask for proof of a claim but provide none for yours. I do know we tracked it with AP1 and didn't find any (or much) data going across the wire. I haven't seen the sources of "alot [sic] of people with tesla [sic] who have looked and listened".

Thanks in advance.
 
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A computer doesn't understand what it doesn't understand as it pertains to Vision. All it sees are pixels which are numbers RGB 0-255.

The computer understands what it understands, whatever is left over is what it doesn't understand, which is why they need to transmit bulk data.

If the argument is that they do not collect the data, I do not agree. If the argument is what they do with the data, no one knows except them.

I think the assumption that they do what everyone else may not be correct or we should assume that they will not have FSD until ~2021 when everyone else has it, which could be correct. So they are either doing what everyone else is doing and will finish in about the same time(~2021) and having a fleet of 100,000 cars and counting with HW2 doesn't make a difference because you arn't using them to further your efforts, or they are using them and harvesting the data every day. We cant possibly know what they are doing, but I would opt for the later.
 
Again you can't train the system by collecting raw video data and simply feeding it.
I agree with nearly everything you said in this post expect this statement.

Assuming you've already trained image recognition using supervised learning. There are plenty of other driving tasks which can be done by feeding in raw data coming from the car (not just video), such as learning from human steering input given a set of road conditions, objects present in the scene, accelerator and brake positions, etc. This can also be done in simulation such as in GTA V where it might get negative feedback when hitting something.
 
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Again you can't train the system by collecting raw video data and simply feeding it.

It's common to start training with hand labeled data simply because you can deploy an army of interns and temps to get it done quickly. Eventually you can feed in structured (not necessarily hand labeled) data. It'll never be 100% accurate but it scores data based on how certain it is of the correct answer and can simply ignore ambiguous data below a set threshold while slowly getting better over time. This is why huge datasets are so important.

Assuming you've already trained image recognition using supervised learning. There are plenty of other driving tasks which can be done by feeding in raw data coming from the car (not just video), such as learning from human steering input given a set of road conditions, objects present in the scene, accelerator and brake positions, etc. This can also be done in simulation such as in GTA V where it might get negative feedback when hitting something.

That's right. And the game training is extra easy because it's all pure simulation, you just feed the game output into the system and let it run forever. No one ever gets tired or hits anything and it's dirt cheap.

You can train a CNN via "observation" as it visually identifies a safe zone to drive and then observes human driver inputs in that context. In this way it doesn't have to perfectly identify the whole world around it, just an area around the car where it's safe to be, updated 30 times per second. This is how some cars can recognize a dirt road with no lane markings or shoulders as a "road" without ever being directly told.

Note that I have no idea what specific methods the Tesla software team uses. These are generic autonomous driving training techniques.
 
How many years till FSD can do the following?

Avoid a tire damaging pot hole?

Pass a stationary broken down car.. or even a slow moving car like postal worker?

Drive around dead animal?


I can not get tesla to fix a squeak in my FWD after three attempts.
 
How many years till FSD can do the following?
Avoid a tire damaging pot hole?
Pass a stationary broken down car.. or even a slow moving car like postal worker?
Drive around dead animal?
I can not get tesla to fix a squeak in my FWD after three attempts.

How many years until all humans consistently avoid a tire damaging pothole or avoid hitting a dead animal?

Passing a double parked car was demonstrated in some of the cruise automation videos.

I'm pretty sure Tesla doesn't hear the squeak as often as you do since you own it. If you can figure out exactly what's causing it to squeak and direct them to it, then they might be able to fix it properly. If it's sporadic then that's difficult to troubleshoot. They might grease it, it disappears, you go home and it might squeak later.
 
What you @JeffK and @AirKuhl are talking about is the end to end self driving which we have already discussed and mobileeye and Tesla director of autopilot have been publically against and most of the industry

Mapping steering angle and pedals to front facing camera images. As Tesla director of autopilot said. You can get a nice demo out of it but that's just it. A demo.
 
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What you @JeffK and @AirKuhl are talking about is the end to end self driving which we have already discussed and mobileeye and Tesla director of autopilot have been publically against and most of the industry

Mapping steering angle and pedals to front facing camera images. As Tesla director of autopilot said. You can get a nice demo out of it but that's just it. A demo.
Again, former director. And what I'm describing Waymo is using Don't Worry, Driverless Cars Are Learning From Grand Theft Auto

MobilEye is also using simulations. Here's a quote regarding highway merging from a Forbes article:

To solve this, Mobileye is developing additional algorithms for its chips to safely execute mergers that even human drivers would find challenging and testing them with computer simulations. Currently, the system is achieving just 200 failures for every 100,000 simulated merger attempts, Shashua said.

I mean, if you think you know better than Tesla, MobilEye, Waymo, and Cruise Automation, then by all means start a company and compete. :) We could all benefit.
 
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Again, former director. And what I'm describing Waymo is using Don't Worry, Driverless Cars Are Learning From Grand Theft Auto

MobilEye is also using simulations. Here's a quote regarding highway merging from a Forbes article:



I mean, if you think you know better than Tesla, MobilEye, Waymo, and Cruise Automation, then by all means start a company and compete. :) We could all benefit.


No No No, you are confusing and meshing everything together.

Object Classification and Detection using CNN are fundamentally different from
End to End CNN using direct camera feed to actuation for self driving cars which are also completely different from
Reinforcement learning models which are also different from
Simulation by using Lidar map of the city and generating ai traffic cars/pedestrians/scenarios/etc in it.

Research. Research. Research.
 
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No No No, you are confusing and meshing everything together.

Object Classification and Detection using CNN are fundamentally different from
End to End CNN using direct camera feed to actuation for self driving cars which are also completely different from
Reinforcement learning models which are also different from
Simulation by using Lidar map of the city and generating ai traffic cars/pedestrians/scenarios/etc in it.

Research. Research. Research.

Do we even know what's going to be used for FSD?

As of right now as I understand it the AP only uses various CNN's for to determine the lane edge, cars, pedestrians, etc. Where it then combines this data with the radar data to algorithmically determine what to do.

There isn't any kind of NN in the actual driving. I kinda wish there was because I imagine it would be a lot smoother than my AP1 system. The AP1 system lane steering is constantly doing small adjustments where a normal human would be a lot smoother.

In my own hobby projects I've done:

Image Classification: Using an AlexNet based network (trained using Digits which is a front-end to Caffe)
Image Detection: Using a DetectNet based network (trained used Digits)

On both of those I trained the models using Playing Cards where the Image Detection found the cards, and Image Classification determine the card type.

Then I played around with inference on a Jetson TX1 so the detection could be live. It's doesn't run them both at the same time, but I pipelined the two networks.

Using that I created a silly BlackJack type game. It's a very simplified game that requires a human to to deal the cards to it, but I think it's neat because it's live. You simply aim the camera at the table and it knows which cards are shown.

GitHub - S4WRXTTCS/jetson-inference: Jetson-Inference Fork

At some point I'll add reinforcement based learning, but I haven't gotten around to it. I started playing with segmentation networks and then got stuck on the inference not working on the TX1 correctly.

I do plan on playing around with the self-driving type stuff NVidia has, but I haven't gotten around to it aside from purchasing some necessary stuff (like the ZED Camera).
 
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No No No, you are confusing and meshing everything together.

Object Classification and Detection using CNN are fundamentally different from
End to End CNN using direct camera feed to actuation for self driving cars which are also completely different from
Reinforcement learning models which are also different from
Simulation by using Lidar map of the city and generating ai traffic cars/pedestrians/scenarios/etc in it.

Research. Research. Research.
Not once have I mentioned an end to end NN. You are the only person that keeps suggesting we are all talking about end to end systems.
 
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