goRt
Active Member
I'll wait for you to read Musky's tweets and reflect on them and what we're seeing.
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FSD / AP Rewrite - turning the corner?
- Thread starter MrBadger
- Start date
I'll wait for you to read Musky's tweets and reflect on them and what we're seeing.
Moderator comment - please take this argument elsewhere - plenty of the same arguments being thrashed out in Autopilot & Autonomous/FSD | Tesla Motors Club
But please come back when you have an answer that everyone can agree on
But please come back when you have an answer that everyone can agree on
Interesting interview with Musk, who is “100% certain” Tesla will reach level 5 in 2021, but also says the EU will be the last to approve. If L5 comes to pass, I wonder what the UK will do being outside of the EU. Interesting year coming up.....
https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-interview-axel-springer-tesla-accelerate-advent-of-sustainable-energy?r=US&IR=T
Musk: In the US, it will be pretty quick to approve, particularly in certain states. Some countries, like perhaps Norway, will be very quick to approve. They've said that. The EU is where we actually have the most difficulty. It's quite challenging. And the committee only meets every six months, and then the agenda is decided six months before that. So, it's very difficult. Our biggest challenges for regulatory approval are in the EU. This is a case of too many cooks in the kitchen, maybe.
https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-interview-axel-springer-tesla-accelerate-advent-of-sustainable-energy?r=US&IR=T
Musk: In the US, it will be pretty quick to approve, particularly in certain states. Some countries, like perhaps Norway, will be very quick to approve. They've said that. The EU is where we actually have the most difficulty. It's quite challenging. And the committee only meets every six months, and then the agenda is decided six months before that. So, it's very difficult. Our biggest challenges for regulatory approval are in the EU. This is a case of too many cooks in the kitchen, maybe.
..on a few selected routes at 3am on a bank holiday...
Most of us would like to think L5 mean anywhere, anytime but reality is a different picture - rural roads with passing bays, single carriageways with broken down vehicles, double-parked side streets, emergency vehicles - there's a long way to go. Spaghetti junction anyone?
Mark-R
Member
It has probably been posted earlier, but this uk.gov consultation document is an interesting read:
Safe Use of Automated Lane Keeping System (ALKS) Call for Evidence
Quote (bold added by me):
Automated vehicles offer the potential for huge benefits, such as helping to reduce the number of road deaths and casualties. The UK is keen to be the first country to see these benefits, offering an attractive place for manufacturers to deploy their technology. ALKS is one step along in that journey, which is designed to allow a driver to disengage from the driving task for the first time. The UK will continue to be an active participant in international fora like the UNECE, but leaving the EU offers opportunities to go further and faster. It is important therefore that the UK seizes the opportunity to make the most from automated vehicle technology.
The UK government is keen to demonstrate the benefits of leaving the EU, so we might see some relatively rapid changes to legislation with the aim to facilitate autonomous vehicles on UK roads. Hopefully we will soon (2021?) see ALKS regs updated to include automated lane changes, making Navigate on Autopilot a lot more functional (i.e. indicate to confirm lane change won't be required). Hopefully this will be followed by autonomous driving on roads other than motorways (e.g. FSD Beta).
Safe Use of Automated Lane Keeping System (ALKS) Call for Evidence
Quote (bold added by me):
Automated vehicles offer the potential for huge benefits, such as helping to reduce the number of road deaths and casualties. The UK is keen to be the first country to see these benefits, offering an attractive place for manufacturers to deploy their technology. ALKS is one step along in that journey, which is designed to allow a driver to disengage from the driving task for the first time. The UK will continue to be an active participant in international fora like the UNECE, but leaving the EU offers opportunities to go further and faster. It is important therefore that the UK seizes the opportunity to make the most from automated vehicle technology.
The UK government is keen to demonstrate the benefits of leaving the EU, so we might see some relatively rapid changes to legislation with the aim to facilitate autonomous vehicles on UK roads. Hopefully we will soon (2021?) see ALKS regs updated to include automated lane changes, making Navigate on Autopilot a lot more functional (i.e. indicate to confirm lane change won't be required). Hopefully this will be followed by autonomous driving on roads other than motorways (e.g. FSD Beta).
i think you’ll be surprised at what FSD can already do. Spaghetti Junction is actually a much easier problem to solve - I would expect the latest FSD beta would already handle it.
Watching cars with Beta software ducking in between parked cars to make progress against oncoming traffic which have right of way is very impressive - and essential for the UK. Creeping forward at poor visibility junctions to get a better view before making the decision is also vey human-like.
The pace of improvement in technology and software is always much greater then most people realise, but advancement in neural networks is something else altogether. Quite extraordinary time we live in.
I’d like to think that Tesla can deliver L5 autonomy with the current hardware and beta software but I’m far from convinced. I’m not sure there’s been any serious evaluation of the beta software yet, just some videos posted by enthusiasts lucky enough to get early release access. Certainly I don’t trust Elon’s timelines as he has been disastrously wrong in his predictions so far. I wouldn’t trust him to predict tomorrow’s sunrise.
darkNstormy
Member
I don't understand why Tesla try to emulate what the driver sees - IIRC the bulk of the FSD 'brains' is analysing what is seen from the camera set in the top of the windscreen. It would surely make more sense to use more advanced tech, such as cameras in the corners of the bumpers to be able to get a better view out of junctions and put cameras elsewhere to remove blind spots (a bit like Audi's 360 camera system gives you loads of views, not just from the driver's seat perspective).
Hmmmm. Level 5 - that means they will have to allow the car to drive autonomously under all (reasonably expected) weather conditions...So a fix for low sun, humid/cold and wet conditions?
Level 5 requires no human input. Cars shouldn’t need accelerators, brakes or steering wheels. Absolutely no chance anytime soon, whatever Elon says.
No chance any automated vehicle system can handle things like country lanes with passing places etc.
Level 5 in the States in 2021 is wildly optimistic, i’d argue impossible. In Europe with the UNECe restrictions, that the UK is part of unless it chooses to deviate - and from what I gather the UK was one of the more strident voices against easing autonomous restrictions. I’d like to believe the statement above about the UK seizing the chance to take the lead in Europe on this stuff, but I’m cynical so suspect it is just politics.
Level 5 in the States in 2021 is wildly optimistic, i’d argue impossible. In Europe with the UNECe restrictions, that the UK is part of unless it chooses to deviate - and from what I gather the UK was one of the more strident voices against easing autonomous restrictions. I’d like to believe the statement above about the UK seizing the chance to take the lead in Europe on this stuff, but I’m cynical so suspect it is just politics.
Wol747
Active Member
I would be very surprised to see level FOUR any time soon, and flabbergasted to see level five on normal roads within five years.
Fantastic though the automation is now, it's the so-called edge cases that come up which are problematic. Level 5 cannot accept cars which stop safely when presented with say a lorry on a single file road but can't reverse if necessary - the definition makes it clear that level 5 does not need to have manual controls at all although they may be fitted.
Fantastic though the automation is now, it's the so-called edge cases that come up which are problematic. Level 5 cannot accept cars which stop safely when presented with say a lorry on a single file road but can't reverse if necessary - the definition makes it clear that level 5 does not need to have manual controls at all although they may be fitted.
Thats fundamentally the difference between L4 and L5 although design intent comes into it too. L4 is L5, but with a limited operational domain. EM may have the intent that it is/will be L5, but unless they can mitigate against the issues that currently cause a restriction in its operational domain, I think he will be called out.
The reason why I say, "I think", is without delving into the specifics of the widely used SAE definition of L5, would for example, a vehicle still be classed as L5 if it could drive a stretch of motorway, but not be able to change lane - eg the good old NoA messages of bad weather/camera blinded, restricted functionality etc. I think in my book, it would not be within the spirit of L5 if a human driving in those circumstances would not have the same limitation.
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