FSD Beta 10.10 Release Notes

[aronth5]

I think this is another "lie" being told by Elon that the media (and most forum posters) repeat constantly - this idea that, as far as approaching "fully autonomous," FSD is working in "the long tail of 9's," i.e. currently capable of 99.99...% of the driving task. You may say they are referring to percentage of miles driven, perhaps (and I don't know if I even believe that), but as far as counting by situational transitions faced while driving, they are nowhere near 99%, or 90%, or 80% for that matter. As @Gilliland said above, it still can't handle school zones, school busses, railroad crossings, "do-not-block-the-box" intersections, multiple-lane left turns, and at least up to 10.8.1, left turns on flashing yellow arrows, just to name a few - things I encounter on my commute every day. And that's not even broaching the subject of phantom braking or staying in its own lane on a windy two-lane road.

I don't mind testing the FSD software and I hope my contribution is moving the feature(s) forward for me and other Tesla owners, but I just can't see how Elon's take on where it is and where it will wind up can be considered rational or honest.

Where do you get the idea that most people on the forum are stating FSD is 99%+ done and working on the "long tail of 9's"? That just isn't correct.
Simply take a look at the poll where over 90+ are critical of Elon's statement. There is significant push back by forum members on FSD.
Post Elon Update Poll on FSD

 

[Goose66]

Where do you get the idea that most people on the forum are stating FSD is 99%+ done and working on the "long tail of 9's"? That just isn't correct.
Simply take a look at the poll where over 90+ are critical of Elon's statement. There is significant push back by forum members on FSD.
Post Elon Update Poll on FSD

"Most" may have been impertinent. I am not suggesting that "most" people agree with Elon on his predictions or are not appropriately critical. What I am saying is that I hear this "long tail of 9's" repeated A LOT in podcasts, blogs, social media, and these and other forums in relation to why autonomous driving is so hard and/or why Elon's predictions of FSD delivery don't come to fruition. It's a very common theme in discussions of the limits of machine learning and neural networks in general. But I feel that Elon has repeated it enough that, IMO, it has become a de facto status for where FSD is in development - accepted by many - when it is just not true.

 

[Goose66]

My guess (from data from Teslafi) is that 10.10 has been rolled out to about 9,500 people so far. I wonder if they have decided that 54,000 people are too many for a beta test and are just going to roll out releases to 10,000 or so each time and wait a couple of weeks to see what happens.

 

[Knightshade]

My guess (from data from Teslafi) is that 10.10 has been rolled out to about 9,500 people so far. I wonder if they have decided that 54,000 people are too many for a beta test and are just going to roll out releases to 10,000 or so each time and wait a couple of weeks to see what happens.

That's problematic given most are still on a "recalled" version of the beta.

 

[JulienW]

That's problematic given most are still on a "recalled" version of the beta.

As I have stated before there is no hurry on the recall since they normally take a few months to complete (mail notice, schedule work and take to the dealer service center).

 

[AndreP]

Seems like the last bunch of updates have often gone out to limited groups, I could swear we had people sitting on 10.5 or something until 10.8 came out but haven’t been keeping close track.

 

[EVNow]

That's problematic given most are still on a "recalled" version of the beta.

Here is the "normal" recall process.

- People start reporting issues
- After months, NHTSA sends a letter to OEM
- OEM gives vague answers to NHTSA, after a month
- More people report issues to NHTSA
- OEM settles with some people in secret
- More people report issues to NHTSA
- NHTSA starts talking to OEM in earnest saying the issue can no longer be brushed under the carpet
- OEM and NHTSA negotiate a fix and recall schedule over next several months
- OEM sends letter to customers about the recall, asking them to expect a letter about when the customer can get the fix
- After several months, OEMs send a letter to the customers that they can schedule a fix at the dealer
- Customers call dealers and are given a date that is weeks or months away
- Customer forgets about the fix

What NHTSA is used to is
...

 

[ArtMasson]

The current rollout to address the recall (Version 10.10) has stopped. It would be fairly easy for Tesla to communicate to all the current FSD Beta Users what their rollout approach is and what the current plan/schedule is to address the recall. I think that would put a lot of beta tester needless speculation to rest. For some reason, Tesla chooses not to do that.

 

[Knightshade]

Here is the "normal" recall process.

- People start reporting issues
- After months, NHTSA sends a letter to OEM
- OEM gives vague answers to NHTSA, after a month
- More people report issues to NHTSA
- OEM settles with some people in secret
- More people report issues to NHTSA
- NHTSA starts talking to OEM in earnest saying the issue can no longer be brushed under the carpet
- OEM and NHTSA negotiate a fix and recall schedule over next several months
- OEM sends letter to customers about the recall, asking them to expect a letter about when the customer can get the fix
- After several months, OEMs send a letter to the customers that they can schedule a fix at the dealer
- Customers call dealers and are given a date that is weeks or months away
- Customer forgets about the fix

Ok.

And I agree that's a route Tesla can take, given how "normal" recalls work.


But if Tesla actually wants the NHTSA to start treating OTA updates differently from traditional recalls, which it sounds like they do, they're going to have to act like they're different.

The current rollout to address the recall (Version 10.10) has stopped. It would be fairly easy for Tesla to communicate to all the current FSD Beta Users what their rollout approach is and what the current plan/schedule is to address the recall. I think that would put a lot of beta tester needless speculation to rest. For some reason, Tesla chooses not to do that.

Tesla is excellent at many things.

If I were listing the things they're TERRIBLE at, the top 3 would be communications.... with ensuing arguments about which of ranking 1 through 3 they're worst at among "with existing customers", "with new customers", and "internally"

 

[ArtMasson]

T

Ok.

And I agree that's a route Tesla can take, given how "normal" recalls work.


But if Tesla actually wants the NHTSA to start treating OTA updates differently from traditional recalls, which it sounds like they do, they're going to have to act like they're different.

Yes, Tesla -- Choose to be different to set a new standard approach in openness and timing.

 

[jabloomf1230]

If I was the regulator in charge of the Tesla case and saw them updating cars to allow the user to have the car be purple in the UI, I'd demand the same responsiveness for a safety recall.

 

[EVNow]

But if Tesla actually wants the NHTSA to start treating OTA updates differently from traditional recalls, which it sounds like they do, they're going to have to act like they're different.

Would you say the current recall schedule of Tesla is different ?

 

[EVNow]

I hear this "long tail of 9's" repeated A LOT in podcasts, blogs, social media, and these and other forums in relation to why autonomous driving is so hard and/or why Elon's predictions of FSD delivery don't come to fruition.

Those are all clickbait types. Don't go by them. It is clear from disengagement rates, FSD Beta is some 100x to 1000x worse than humans at present.

ps : BTW, how exactly do you define disengagement rates - what is your unit of distance. If it is small enough, then we are talking march of nines indeed

 

[Rusty1]

With the current delay, it is looking like 10.10.1 may be coming.

 

[EVNow]

With the current delay, it is looking like 10.10.1 may be coming.

Yes, at this point I'd be very surprised if 10.10 rolls out wide. We should see 10.10.1 (or even 10.11) soon.

 

[EVNow]

New theory : Nothing wrong with 10.10 - NHTSA is complaining about the release notes explanation of rolling stop change since it makes them look silly.

 

[drtimhill]

Keep in mind that the NHTSA recall is for 53,822. This is a legal and exact number. It may (or may not) exclude some or all Tesla employees. This is also likely the reason no one has been added to the Beta program since the number can't increase.

What I meant by "active" was people who had the beta and were engaging it and testing it on a reasonably regular basis. No arguments about 58,000 being the correct number of enrolled testers.

 

[Dan D.]

New theory : Nothing wrong with 10.10 - NHTSA is complaining about the release notes explanation of rolling stop change since it makes them look silly.

How many FSD Betas are visible on Teslafi and the other software tracker(s)? Compared to the declared total of 53822. Are some cars listed on multiple trackers or does it not work that way? There's no way to see them all I suppose.

As to the decrease in updates, could Tesla just be shrinking the Beta quantity?

Is it clear that 53822 cars are running a version of Beta or is that the number that have paid for it, including subscription, but not necessarily been granted it yet?

 

[EVNow]

How many FSD Betas are visible on Teslafi and the other software tracker(s)? Compared to the declared total of 53822. Are some cars listed on multiple trackers or does it not work that way? There's no way to see them all I suppose.

Teslafi has some 2.5k cars on FSD Beta. So, about 5% of total.

As to the decrease in updates, could Tesla just be shrinking the Beta quantity?

No - this would be opposite of what Elon wants. In anycase, they need to do the "recall".

Is it clear that 53822 cars are running a version of Beta or is that the number that have paid for it, including subscription, but not necessarily been granted it yet?

Yes - otherwise there would be no recall.

 

[Ramphex]

The current rollout to address the recall (Version 10.10) has stopped. It would be fairly easy for Tesla to communicate to all the current FSD Beta Users what their rollout approach is and what the current plan/schedule is to address the recall. I think that would put a lot of beta tester needless speculation to rest. For some reason, Tesla chooses not to do that.

You said Tesla and communicate in the same sentence