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FSD Beta 10.69

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March makes sense, in fact I expect the typical timeline:
  • 2 Weeks from Now: "Surprised" TMC posters begin commenting 11.3 is late (the "2 week" jokes are exhausted, Elon's reliability revisited, etc.)
  • February: early non-employee tester rollout, followed by critical comments of "shill's posting youtube videos"
  • March: wide rollout begins
  • March wide rollout + 3 hours: concerns emerge about install getting stuck at 50%
  • March wide rollout + 1 to 2 days: the usual posters comment that 11.3 is worse than previous version
They are waiting for Punxtsutawney Phil to see its shadow
 
Yesterday because of rain - briefly FSD would not come on because of rain. I had to use AP for a while. I realized how far we have come in FSD ... even just lane keeping was quite bad with AP (basically when the lanes merged / widened). AP brakes quite hard when a car in the front brakes to turn etc. AP also takes a long time to start back. Compared to AP all these things are "smooth" in FSD.

Won't be surprised if FSD 11 is actually better than AP/NOA in a number of ways.
 
More likely April Fool's Day.
Or April 20th, 4/20? At 4:20 PM?

Seriously though, tomorrow would be OK by me.

I think the FSD beta testing program may have essentially ended when they rolled it out to everyone who'd bought it. Which was when the report button went away. Too bad, because there are still many opportunities for improvement.

I would still like to see how FSD beta does on Safety Score, what with the hard phantom breaking and acceleration in turns, etc. Not that I liked the driving style that SS required, but the cars are clearly perfectly capable of measuring their own smoothness and surprise abrupt reactions.
 
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Here is a new driving scenario I have to follow now because of a street blocked off for construction of a high rise. I now have to go down Arts Center Way and turn right. I then need to cross 5 lanes of traffic and get in the left turn lane (blue arrow) to turn on 17th St. So for it has been a 100% fail even with no traffic. The best it has done was to get over 3 lanes (red arrows). It seems when it is turning that is as far ahead as it is planing. Then AFTER it turns onto West Peachtree (yes it's true that many streets in ATL are named Peachtree 🙃 ) it starts planing to get over for the left turn. That is of course WAY too late in this short ½ block distance. It also will pull out with traffic in some of the left lanes which also means there is no chance of getting over.

As a human it is easy and just require some planning. You just wait for a red light ½ block farther up to turn red and hold traffic so you have a mostly clear shot across. Beta has no concept of this and just pulls out with traffic in the left lanes and sometimes even backed up.

Here is a sat. image from a couple of years ago that shows more clearly.

Screenshot 2023-01-08 at 6.15.47 AM.png
 
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Here is a new driving scenario I have to follow now because of a street blocked off for construction of a high rise. I now have to go down Arts Center Way and turn right. I then need to cross 5 lanes of traffic and get in the left turn lane (blue arrow) to turn on 17th St. So for it has been a 100% fail even with no traffic. The best it has done was to get over 3 lanes (red arrows). It seems when it is turning that is as far ahead as it is planing. Then AFTER it turns onto West Peachtree (yes it's true that many streets in ATL are named Peachtree 🙃 ) it starts planing to get over for the left turn. That is of course WAY too late in this short ½ block distance. It also will pull out with traffic in some of the left lanes which also means there is no chance of getting over.

As a human it is easy and just require some planning. You just wait for a red light ½ block farther up to turn red and hold traffic so you have a mostly clear shot across. Beta has no concept of this and just pulls out with traffic in the left lanes and sometimes even backed up.

Here is a sat. image from a couple of years ago that shows more clearly.

View attachment 893596
This looks like a planning issue, just couple of days ago when I took my usual route home, NOA decided to take a different (last) exit to switch to a business highway instead of an earlier one. The problem with going this route is after the off-ramp, it has to cross a 3 lanes service road and then make a sharp right turn within two hundred feet (not to mention there is a traffic light and traffice can come from the left), FSDb after the exit is not fast enough to make the move with or without traffic, I ended up taking over and result in a hard braking ding. Normally if I drive manually, I won't take this route unless I missed the earlier exit and desperate to get home faster, otherwise I will just drive 10 more miles to get home.

Another scenario is like this, FSDb is travelling 45 mph downhill, it knows it has to make the right turn but didn't slow down enough and result in a wide turn .. if I didn't take over immediately, it will run over the island and result in serious damage.

1673186176755.png
 
Here is a new driving scenario I have to follow now because of a street blocked off for construction of a high rise. I now have to go down Arts Center Way and turn right. I then need to cross 5 lanes of traffic and get in the left turn lane (blue arrow) to turn on 17th St. So for it has been a 100% fail even with no traffic. The best it has done was to get over 3 lanes (red arrows). It seems when it is turning that is as far ahead as it is planing. Then AFTER it turns onto West Peachtree (yes it's true that many streets in ATL are named Peachtree 🙃 ) it starts planing to get over for the left turn. That is of course WAY too late in this short ½ block distance. It also will pull out with traffic in some of the left lanes which also means there is no chance of getting over.
Making five safe lane changes in half a block would seem to be a challenge for any driver, let alone FSDb. The Nav software needs to be improved to understand this and use a different route.
 
Making five safe lane changes in half a block would seem to be a challenge for any driver, let alone FSDb. The Nav software needs to be improved to understand this and use a different route.
Yes, have to get into the Peachtree St couple of blocks earlier.

I think the next big thing for FSDb to do is in planning. Nav should be updated to avoid difficult maneuvers.
 
Yes, have to get into the Peachtree St couple of blocks earlier.

I think the next big thing for FSDb to do is in planning. Nav should be updated to avoid difficult maneuvers.
Funny but you would be lost in ATL since it is NOT Peachtree St. It is West Peachtree St. There are 71 streets in ATL with Peachtree in their name. 🙃 🤪

Like I said it is no problem for a human since there is a red light ½ block up and all you have to do is wait. Of course FSD Beta can't understand this and even if it is all CLEAR it still can't get over that many lanes. If all clear a human just pulls out across the lanes and NOT into the first lane to work your way over.

Also it is the navigation that IS driving that route. It would have to go down 2 blocks to the next through street to avoid but it doesn't, nor would any human.

So in effect it is a 100% disengagement route.

 
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Like I said it is no problem for a human since there is a red light ½ block up and all you have to do is wait.
What if there are other drivers at the back honking at you ?

Anyway, as I said, the easier thing to do is to avoid such routes. Waymo does it all the time - and even UPS is supposed to do that.

It already does this to some degree. Early on in the beta, it altered my route to work because it consistently failed to make a certain left turn, every single time. I've also seen it plan fairly silly routes to avoid making moderately difficult UPLs.
Haven't noticed that. Its been giving me a new route on the way back from dropping off my kids at school that requires a U-Turn that it can't do (it won't even attempt, just gives me a message).
 
I back in my semi regular weekend drives again now and can get a much better idea of how 69.25.1 compared to prior versions.
Results from this drive aren't good at all. Overall FSD performed noticeably worse than previous versions on the same drive.
It wasn't stable in its lane, almost behaving like there was a heavy side wind (weather was great, no side wind)
The flashing yellow warning lights don't fail every time - now behaves like its going to fail then kinda works sometimes, but still rapidly slows down to 45/50 on a 70 road.
After its first attempt to move left for no reason I turned off NOA for the fast roads, at least NOA warns you. For the slower roads FSDb just signals and starts moving. Four unneeded left lane ventures later and I gave up with FSD again and just used TACC.
Only good this about the weekend drive was that we had zero random slowdowns. For me at least the slowdowns have been replaced by stupid lane discipline.
Can't wait to get updated away from this version.
One good thing. The Nav now suggests more than one route, so we could go the way we wanted. Just had to disengage for all the other reasons instead of the Nav.
 
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No, just the one. It does navigate the original route sometimes. It seems to be using traffic info to determine if the street is open or closed. It still gets it wrong sometimes and of course tries to ram the closed street barrier. 🤪
I've to force it to use my routes of choice many times. Alt routes have been decent so far letting me pick my preferred route.
 
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Yesterday because of rain - briefly FSD would not come on because of rain. I had to use AP for a while. I realized how far we have come in FSD ... even just lane keeping was quite bad with AP (basically when the lanes merged / widened). AP brakes quite hard when a car in the front brakes to turn etc. AP also takes a long time to start back. Compared to AP all these things are "smooth" in FSD.

Won't be surprised if FSD 11 is actually better than AP/NOA in a number of ways.
It might be but it's also because AP has regressed. It used to be smoother in traffic , even the original "Mobileye" AP1 was smoother than what we have now.
 
Here is a new driving scenario I have to follow now because of a street blocked off for construction of a high rise. I now have to go down Arts Center Way and turn right. I then need to cross 5 lanes of traffic and get in the left turn lane (blue arrow) to turn on 17th St. So for it has been a 100% fail even with no traffic. The best it has done was to get over 3 lanes (red arrows). It seems when it is turning that is as far ahead as it is planing. Then AFTER it turns onto West Peachtree (yes it's true that many streets in ATL are named Peachtree 🙃 ) it starts planing to get over for the left turn. That is of course WAY too late in this short ½ block distance. It also will pull out with traffic in some of the left lanes which also means there is no chance of getting over.

As a human it is easy and just require some planning. You just wait for a red light ½ block farther up to turn red and hold traffic so you have a mostly clear shot across. Beta has no concept of this and just pulls out with traffic in the left lanes and sometimes even backed up.

Here is a sat. image from a couple of years ago that shows more clearly.

View attachment 893596
There's probably something related to planning like you said. The planner seems to only handle one chunk/task (1 lane change) with seemingly great effort and time. The team might make it work with a 30ft crawl for each lane change.

No doubt FSD's myopia and lack of anticipation would have a poor outcome in this case. I could picture being halfway to the 17th St intersection before FSD completed the first lane change and then slowing to a crawl to make the remaining lane changes. A human driver can process all lanes for the best timing and be halfway into the second lane within 50 ft or so after the right turn into Peachtree. FSD isn't nimble enough in its current form.