FSD Beta v11.x

EVNow · Dec 30, 2021

Elon says 11 was planned for this year but was *surprise* delayed. It is in ”alpha” now.

Question is what is alpha … rough with a lot of bugs ? But that is what Beta looks like !

To me alpha sounds like a POC - proof of concept. Significant dev work remains, apart from fixing bugs. Hope we get 11 by this time next year.

Sharps97 · Dec 30, 2021

I think alpha is just a roughly shelled out version that mostly touches on each of the critical components with at least some of them not working ideally or possibly even as intended but far enough along to be tested internally and allowing for rapid iteration in preparation for beta releases.

I am most interested in how object persistence winds up improving things because I think that is a big gap with today’s modeling.

Once we see a few spins of this model, we might gain some insight as to whether the current suite of hardware is enough or if additional revisions might be necessary.

Looking forward to seeing what this generational improvement brings.

okcazure · Dec 30, 2021

EVNow said:
To me alpha sounds like a POC - proof of concept. Significant dev work remains, apart from fixing bugs. Hope we get 11 by this time next year.

I would think alpha is "feature complete" I.E. all new features added except regression in other areas bad enough it needs fixed. Just my thoughts anyways

EVNow · Dec 31, 2021

Sharps97 said:
I think alpha is just a roughly shelled out version that mostly touches on each of the critical components with at least some of them not working ideally or possibly even as intended but far enough along to be tested internally and allowing for rapid iteration in preparation for beta releases.

That would be a good definition - though in the industry I think people use it to indicate that it’s still not good enough to be beta, mostly for external communication. We never used alpha internally, using various other milestones instead. You wouldn’t find Windows builds named alpha, for eg.

I wonder - with so many items slated for 11, whether any of them come to some 10.x version. Also, Tesla will probably put most effort into 11 and not spend a lot of effort on 10.x code that is possibly short lived/throwaway.

eli_ · Dec 31, 2021

Single stack isn't just highways but also parking lots (i.e. smart summon's domain).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1415782123298902019

JulienW · Jan 1, 2022

eli_ said:
Single stack isn't just highways but also parking lots (i.e. smart summon's domain).

Yes and Musk even reiterated Lex Friedman Podcase a couple of days ago. However I bet that we get Highway first with 11.0/11.1 with Summon/parking lots added later in 11 (like 11.6).

EVNow · Jan 1, 2022

JulienW said:
Yes and Musk even reiterated Lex Friedman Podcase a couple of days ago. However I bet that we get Highway first with 11.0/11.1 with Summon/parking lots added later in 11 (like 11.6).

Auto parking already looks ready to be part of FSD.

Summon is partly done in the cloud … not sure that part will change soon. But once navigation is set in the cloud, actual driving can easily be FSD, it’s just like driving unmarked roads.

EVNow · Jan 1, 2022

karbomusic said:
Small clarification The 13ms is for all 8 cameras combined, something like ~1.5ms per cam FYI. Elon makes it sound like per camera at first but his next couple of sentences sort of clarify it. I'm also not entirely swallowing his great night vision statement, because he's not accounting for sensor noise. It's not like the sensors produce nothing if photons are hitting it. I'm not saying its not better than expected, just he doesn't fill in the details.

This raw image / photon count / night vision thing brings up many questions …

- Would raw images be different enough between different camera models that if they train with HW3, they have to retrain with HW4, maintain different NNs.
- I wonder whether in their tests raw image at night is doing better than processed. Ofcourse it is possible they were aggressively reducing noise when processing images that might account for this.
- There are NNs that can greatly improve night vision. I wonder whether they are planning on using those.

https://cchen156.github.io/paper/18CVPR_SID.pdf

israndy · Jan 1, 2022

EVNow said:
Auto parking already looks ready to be part of FSD.

In what way? Is there a "Go find parking" feature? Or do you mean it's on the FSD roadmap? That will be great! I do expect to see a bunch of Teslas in the news for parking on top of things that are not parking spaces when that feature is first released.

Another thing that is going to need to be better explored is FSD v11 vs v11 Holiday release, perhaps a better naming strategy when talking about FSD to eliminate confusion.

EVNow · Jan 1, 2022

Randy Spencer said:
In what way? Is there a "Go find parking" feature? Or do you mean it's on the FSD roadmap? That will be great! I do expect to see a bunch of Teslas in the news for parking on top of things that are not parking spaces when that feature is first released.

No - just normal vision based perpendicular auto park.

BTW, go find parking is just a combination of auto park and navigating through parking lots. Once they have proper parking lot navigation, go find parking should be fairly easy.

FloridaJohn · Jan 1, 2022

EVNow said:
BTW, go find parking is just a combination of auto park and navigating through parking lots. Once they have proper parking lot navigation, go find parking should be fairly easy.

EVNow · Jan 1, 2022

zigmeister said:
Great sounds like 20 steps back one step forward to me.

How so ?

EVNow · Jan 1, 2022

Couple of tweets by Arman who claims to be (not) a Tesla AP engineer.

Nothing that anyone here who follows FSD closely from outside can't easily guess/write.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1475897644580962306

https://twitter.com/x/status/1477038646280687616

https://twitter.com/x/status/1477038476839120897

JulienW · Jan 1, 2022

Wonder if we will get a 10.9 first?

EVNow · Jan 1, 2022

JulienW said:
Wonder if we will get a 10.9 first?

I hope so. I don't expect 11 for several months ... and I don't want to be stuck with 10.8.

But I've to say ... the FSD team is probably interested in working on 11 rather than making small improvements to 10.x. Afterall they keep making improvements to 10.x and a lot of us think there isn't much of an improvement or there are a lot of regressions.

These are always tough decisions for the engineering team ...

israndy · Jan 1, 2022

I am happy if they don't bother taking on more betas, *now that I got mine*, until v11. Focus on the new paradigm, don't bother with making pretty changes.

Now as far as the other v11 (Is there a NAME for those two sw releases that is different??) that everyone is upset about the look of, feel free to keep making changes to that and releasing it's updates until the rabble have been sated.

JulienW · Jan 1, 2022

Randy Spencer said:
I am happy if they don't bother taking on more betas, *now that I got mine*, until v11. Focus on the new paradigm, don't bother with making pretty changes.

Now as far as the other v11 (Is there a NAME for those two sw releases that is different??) that everyone is upset about the look of, feel free to keep making changes to that and releasing it's updates until the rabble have been sated.

v11 is the UI (user interface) update for almost all Tesla MCU's and 10.8 is the current FSD Beta. Soon we will have FSD Beta 11.x and at the same time almost everyone will also have the v11.x UI. Just a pure coincidence of numbering and nothing else. By later this year the FSD Beta numbers (like 13.2) will be well past the UI version number of v11.x (the UI will be v11.x for at least year or so since the UI was on v10.x for 2 years) so that they will no longer be conflated.

powertoold · Jan 1, 2022

EVNow said:
- Planner optimization using Monte Carlo simulation

Pretty sure FSD beta already uses Monte Carlo tree search for its planner / decision making. Monte Carlo tree search itself doesn't involve NNs, although it might use the NN outputs.

The example used during AI Day involved planning for lane changes based on predicted futures, and FSD beta already does this. Sometimes it would speed up vs slow down for route-based lane changes.

EVNow · Jan 1, 2022

powertoold said:
Pretty sure FSD beta already uses Monte Carlo tree search for its planner / decision making. Monte Carlo tree search itself doesn't involve NNs, although it might use the NN outputs.

The example used during AI Day involved planning for lane changes based on predicted futures, and FSD beta already does this. Sometimes it would speed up vs slow down for route-based lane changes.

No they use a hybrid approach now.

EVNow said:
I've to watch again - but it sounded like they were using Monte Carlo so to reduce the number of simulations / searches they had to do. May be that was WIP.

Either way - the core idea doesn't change. They are not "hard coding" the path for every situation.

ps : After a bit of reading - looks like what they were/are using is a hybrid approach. MuZero based NN for planning is probably in development.

Deep Understanding Tesla FSD Part 3: Planning & Control

From Theory to Reality Analyze the Evolution of Full Self-Driving from Tesla AI Day

saneryee-studio.medium.com

FSD Beta v11.x

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