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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


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Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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Is it still limited to 80mph on AutoSteer though?
I would expect so. There's a discussion in another thread on this - Tesla states the forward camera can see 250 feet. 80 MPH is about 120 feet/second and the 60-0 stopping distance for a model 3 is roughly 133 feet. Extrapolating that to 80 MPH we get about 175 feet. That leaves 75 feet or just over ½ second for the system to respond to an object in the road before it would be unable to stop in time, and that's in ideal conditions.

Short answer - if you want to drive faster than 80 you're on your own.
 
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I would expect so. There's a discussion in another thread on this - Tesla states the forward camera can see 250 feet. 80 MPH is about 120 feet/second and the 60-0 stopping distance for a model 3 is roughly 133 feet. Extrapolating that to 80 MPH we get about 175 feet. That leaves 75 feet or just over ½ second for the system to respond to an object in the road before it would be unable to stop in time, and that's in ideal conditions.

Short answer - if you want to drive faster than 80 you're on your own.
Braking distance goes with the square of speed. 80mph = 236 feet
I’ve never attempted to wait for Autopilot to stop for a stopped vehicle while going 80mph. It always seems to me that it only sees about 200 feet ahead.
 
Lee discussing the 10.11 improvements with James. 1 1/2 hour long and many of the items are Beta 11.

Basically, looks like Tesla is not waiting for full Beta 11 - but are slowly releasing whatever is ready in 10.x. I like this approach.

Wow, I watched the whole thing, so much more going on than the average person even has the smallest clue about. Who is this guy James? His knowledge on FSD/autonomy is really impressive!
 
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I usually get the 1st push of new fsd updates. I was an original 100% score. Has anyone else who is usually in the early group received 10.11 yet?
I don't think that the early group has a constant composition from one release to the next. I am sometimes in it and sometimes (like this release) not.
 
Quick question, unfortunately I opted out of the FSD Beta in November and then opted back in during December. I have had a score of 100 for the past three months and thousands of miles and understand they have not added new vehicles since December timeframe. I normally receive the most recent release over the air software updates on day 1 or 2 of release but have not received any of the past 3 updates. Could this mean they have put my VIN on the next addition to FSD Beta or am I wishful thinking. Customer service says my vehicle looks good on their end to receive updates but FSD Beta engineering doesn't share anything with them.
 
The hairiest situation I encountered recently (not using FSD) was an unfamiliar "merge" where it was near impossible to see anything. The headrest and pillar block the view badly.

North on 687 to merge onto 231. That is a 22 degree angle. I doubt FSD could handle this in any sort of graceful and safe way.

View attachment 780001
I have several merges like this in my area. In my wife's X I feel blind. In my refresh S I have become spoiled by the center screen projection of the side camera when the turn signal is on. I love it. I don't know why they haven't pushed this backward to pre-refreshes. Would FSD not have an advantage on this type of merge given the camera positions (assuming no k-rail or foliage obstructions)?
 
I have several merges like this in my area. In my wife's X I feel blind. In my refresh S I have become spoiled by the center screen projection of the side camera when the turn signal is on. I love it. I don't know why they haven't pushed this backward to pre-refreshes. Would FSD not have an advantage on this type of merge given the camera positions (assuming no k-rail or foliage obstructions)?
Basically yes, though the various side cameras field of view if not necessarily as good as your eyes turned to the side (though, of course, unlike you the car can see through all cameras at the same time). So yes, the car can see what you can see on the screen (actually, more than you can see, since the screen view is pretty heavily degraded by the limitations of the display itself).
 
Would FSD not have an advantage on this type of merge given the camera positions (assuming no k-rail or foliage obstructions)?
I think you are right that FSD could have an advantage.

However, if I have difficulty myself and cannot quickly and easily visually confirm that it's clear to go, I'm not going to trust FSD to merge safely.

I wish these roads were closer so I could do a few test runs (ideally with a passenger to monitor the merge). I am jealous of your center screen for viewing the turn display - which certainly could have helped.
 
I have several merges like this in my area. In my wife's X I feel blind. In my refresh S I have become spoiled by the center screen projection of the side camera when the turn signal is on. I love it. I don't know why they haven't pushed this backward to pre-refreshes. Would FSD not have an advantage on this type of merge given the camera positions (assuming no k-rail or foliage obstructions)?
Page 2 of the "Why Haven't They" file: Why haven't they put this turn signal camera images on the instrument cluster, where it belongs?

Sure, use the main screen in cars which lack an instrument cluster screen, obviously. But when an instrument cluster exists, it's a way better use.
 
Page 2 of the "Why Haven't They" file: Why haven't they put this turn signal camera images on the instrument cluster, where it belongs?

Sure, use the main screen in cars which lack an instrument cluster screen, obviously. But when an instrument cluster exists, it's a way better use.


Is that even possible? (I legit don't know the nature of the connections between the center dash on the S/X and the MCU to know if it can display actual video there)
 
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Lee discussing the 10.11 improvements with James
They've talked about FSD Beta being limited to 65mph multiple times now, but it seems to go fine up to 80mph on 10.10.2 in my experience. Most commonly I notice it happening on interstate on-ramps, so it switches to NoA visualizations pretty soon. But recently we went on a trip on US101 where most of it it did stay on NoA but there was one section without any intersections or near any cities and actually the opposite highway traffic briefly is completely separate going through its own tunnel. Here's a screenshot towards the end of the section where FSD Beta visualizations were shown:
us101 fsd 77mph.jpg


His reasoning for replacing bag-of-points with neural network vector-space predictions for FSD Beta 11 / Single Stack probably is still correct as it's computationally expensive to process all points at 80mph when there are many things of interest. Here there's "just" 2 lanes of traffic in each direction and low density of vehicles, but FSD Beta handling any highway including those with 20+ lanes in rush hour traffic… 💦
 
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Continuing the previous comment about rush hour traffic…

Maybe another FSD Beta 11 / single stack change getting pulled in to a 10.12 for moving objects predicted in vector space instead of bag of points? That switch would probably reduce the compute expense and improve predictions of cross traffic for unprotected lefts as well as reducing of many vehicles for heavy traffic in general?
 
Continuing the previous comment about rush hour traffic…

Maybe another FSD Beta 11 / single stack change getting pulled in to a 10.12 for moving objects predicted in vector space instead of bag of points? That switch would probably reduce the compute expense and improve predictions of cross traffic for unprotected lefts as well as reducing of many vehicles for heavy traffic in general?

I think slowly they will get all major Beta 11 items into 10.x and leave 11 for just single stack - since that is what the Twitterati think beta 11 is all about.

That language of "We’re also making good progress with single stack." means it is nowhere near completion. He is not even saying "next month".
 
I think slowly they will get all major Beta 11 items into 10.x and leave 11 for just single stack - since that is what the Twitterati think beta 11 is all about.

That language of "We’re also making good progress with single stack." means it is nowhere near completion. He is not even saying "next month".
I dont even think that .. it's pretty clear that V11 has always been about single stack (though now we get confused because the UI is at V11, and we have V10.11, which some people think IS "v11" .. visions of Spinal Tap).