FSD Beta v11.x

macmee · Nov 26, 2022

AceG8tr said:
My video button is gone too (69.3.1).

Same

Buckminster · Nov 29, 2022

https://twitter.com/x/status/1597497401509441536

Mardak · Nov 29, 2022

Someone received a new vehicle with 2022.40.100 and the mobile app update shows FSD Beta 11 release notes:

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/z7lrdo/_/iy88uer

Although I would guess it's a bug with the new remote release notes viewing behavior where maybe it doesn't find specific release notes for 2022.40.100 and "goes back" to find "previous" release notes for 2022.40.5 (FSD Beta 11) then 2022.40.4 then 2022.36.x, etc.

But if that's the case, maybe we'll be able to find future FSD Beta 11.x release notes this way.

Mardak · Nov 29, 2022

Estimating the FSD Beta cumulative miles from Tesla's quarterly reports, it seems like the monthly rate for September was around 9M miles:

For most of December last year, the population was closer to 30k vehicles before increasing to about 60k vehicles at the end of last year with 10.8. The population remained around there until expanding to 100k end of May with 10.12. With the 10.69 series, the population increased toward 160k near the end of September with 10.69.2 and again toward 200k end of November with 10.69.3 wide release.

Assuming those estimate are accurate, a full month's miles with the current FSD Beta population should be closer to 13M even without accounting for potentially increased capability/usage. And if we say highway miles are about half of miles traveled, FSD Beta 11 even with the same population could be around 25M miles each month.

Of course this will depend heavily on whether people will activate FSD Beta more on highways or not based on regressions compared to current Navigate on Autopilot. Similarly, maybe even with regressions, people will use FSD Beta on highways but not as much on city streets because highways are "easier" with mostly straight roads and lower density of intersections?

AlanSubie4Life · Nov 30, 2022

Mardak said:
Assuming those estimate are accurate, a full month's miles with the current FSD Beta population should be closer to 13M even without accounting for potentially increased capability/usage.

I think as the pool expands we’ll see lower usage per vehicle.

V11 on the limited access highways will inflate it a lot if they don’t break it out.

Hopefully they keep those miles tracked separately from the City Streets miles. Very different.

The more I think about V11 the more sad I get. Have to be sure I am not disappointed so going super low here.

FSDtester#1 · Nov 30, 2022

AlanSubie4Life said:
I think as the pool expands we’ll see lower usage per vehicle.

V11 on the limited access highways will inflate it a lot if they don’t break it out.

Hopefully they keep those miles tracked separately from the City Streets miles. Very different.

The more I think about V11 the more sad I get. Have to be sure I am not disappointed so going super low here.

I am using 3.1 way less than 2.4, and I am a Tesla Super fan... 3.1 maybe added a couple good things, but for me it was 1 step forward, 3 steps back.
You know when I bitch, something ain't right.

Supcom · Nov 30, 2022

Ryan27 said:
I am using 3.1 way less than 2.4, and I am a Tesla Super fan... 3.1 maybe added a couple good things, but for me it was 1 step forward, 3 steps back.
You know when I bitch, something ain't right.

3.1 may have added some great stuff under the hood, so to speak, but the user experience has definitely degraded. This is not surprising as Tesla is still making fundamental changes to the system.

It's good that Tesla apparently has not run out of avenues for major improvements, but it is frustrating when things that seemed to be working well go south. I had the car try to turn left in front of another car on a residential street this evening. I don't know whether the car was shown on the visualization. I was too busy applying the brakes to look. I haven't had that sort of behavior in a long time.

I also had the swerving issue on a one-way street that was about a lane and a half wide. There was no other traffic and no cars parked on the street, so I let FSDb do what it liked. It couldn't seem to decide which side of the street to be on and just kept switching like it was going to follow the left curb, then right curb, then left curb, ...

Mardak · Dec 1, 2022

AlanSubie4Life said:
I think as the pool expands we’ll see lower usage per vehicle. V11 on the limited access highways will inflate it a lot if they don’t break it out.

That does make sense as the larger population will be more of people who didn't try to get FSD Beta earlier with 100 Safety Score or even 80+. Then again, potentially soon some FSD Beta 11.x will be so good on highways that people will toggle on FSD Beta just for that as the legacy stack is over 4 years old.

What would really inflate FSD Beta miles is once highway driving on the new stack is safer and more comfortable than legacy, Tesla will probably want to switch basically the entire fleet to it. (3M+ vehicles driving an average 14k miles/year with roughly half highway miles is 21B miles/year, but yes is this inflated number even meaningful to regulators?)

Daniel in SD · Dec 1, 2022

Mardak said:
is this inflated number even meaningful to regulators?

Probably not. Cruise and Waymo were approved and they haven’t driven anywhere near what’s already been done on FSD.

OlsonBW · Dec 4, 2022

EVNow said:
Elon says 11 was planned for this year but was *surprise* delayed. It is in ”alpha” now.

Question is what is alpha … rough with a lot of bugs ? But that is what Beta looks like !

To me alpha sounds like a POC - proof of concept. Significant dev work remains, apart from fixing bugs. Hope we get 11 by this time next year.

I'm a computer programmer so I know what Alpha, Beta and Production ACTUALLY are.

Alpha: This is PRE-Beta where the software isn't yet deemed good enough for the Beta group to start being allowed to test it. Meaning mostly that a very small group of people who are top end experts (people that have more skills and knowledge than 99.9% of most people on the planet) have with the software.

They know details about the software that nobody else would know because they are the true experts of the experts of the experts. These people have knowledge that only they and the programmers know about and they are tasked with testing very specific scenarios and they know the language to use when reporting back to the programmers because they have a lot of experience with high grades from the programmers (meaning the programmers highly understand and respect their feedback).

To put it another way. If were were someone that worked in a company and you were part of a group that used software X. There are people in your group that you go to for help with the program before you contact IT because they seem to know and understand what the problems are with the software better than anyone else in your group.

Then there are the people that THESE people go to for help. They don't yet go to IT because they know of this other group that can respond faster or they think they have run into the same programs and they have work around they haven't figured out yet.

Then THOSE people have people that they know and so on.

Once you get down to the 0.1% MOST experts with the software. These are the people that get to test out the alpha versions of the software before a wider group gets to test it.

By the way, there are usually multiple rounds, sometimes quite a few rounds of alpha testing and there are usually multiple levels of alpha testers (the more people that use the software the more alpha and beta levels there are) that test the system before a wider group gets to test it.

Eventually it gets released to the beta group. When this happens the software is considered to be 98 or 99% complete and working as expected. The only errors at this point are fringe cases where nobody in any of the alpha teams have experienced X, Y or Z issues with the software OR they haven't had >>repeatable<< errors. Meaning that sometimes you get an error and other times you don't even though you used very strict methods of trying to replicate the issue.

-----------

With Tesla the first team would be the programmers themselves and not even Elon would be allowed to use the software because it is not ready to test outside of extremely controlled circumstances. Meaning not out on public roads.

Only when they feel it is safe enough for Elon to use and they KNOW that the can always disable the software would they allow Elon to use it and he would give feedback that nobody outside of the computer programming industry is likely to be able to give because Elon knows how to program computers. It would take too much to explain this here but trust me, he knows how to program.

The next step is allowing a very expert group of Tesla employees who aren't programmers but who have been trained enough to know how to give consistent feedback vs other testers so that they aren't using different words to describe the same issues.

This is where version 11 is now.

Before they can release it to the Beta group (those of us with the street version of the beta software), Tesla has to test it under all weather conditions including hard core hot and cold and as many types of weather as they can put Tesla Full Self Driving beta through.

They also need to put it through enough miles that they have ironed out as many errors as they believe possible and it is to a point where they don't think there is much more to learn and only THEN do they release it to the Beta group. Not the WHOLE beta group but drivers in the beta group that they trust the most. Only Tesla knows who these people are for sure.

As that beta group is having problems finding problems with FSD then they release it to a larger group of Beta testers and at some people they release it to all beta testers.

Yes, long winded. Hopefully this clears up any questions you might have about Alpha and Beta versions of software.

FSDtester#1 · Dec 4, 2022

OlsonBW said:
I'm a computer programmer so I know what Alpha, Beta and Production ACTUALLY are.

Alpha: This is PRE-Beta where the software isn't yet deemed good enough for the Beta group to start being allowed to test it. Meaning mostly that a very small group of people who are top end experts (people that have more skills and knowledge than 99.9% of most people on the planet) have with the software.

They know details about the software that nobody else would know because they are the true experts of the experts of the experts. These people have knowledge that only they and the programmers know about and they are tasked with testing very specific scenarios and they know the language to use when reporting back to the programmers because they have a lot of experience with high grades from the programmers (meaning the programmers highly understand and respect their feedback).

To put it another way. If were were someone that worked in a company and you were part of a group that used software X. There are people in your group that you go to for help with the program before you contact IT because they seem to know and understand what the problems are with the software better than anyone else in your group.

Then there are the people that THESE people go to for help. They don't yet go to IT because they know of this other group that can respond faster or they think they have run into the same programs and they have work around they haven't figured out yet.

Then THOSE people have people that they know and so on.

Once you get down to the 0.1% MOST experts with the software. These are the people that get to test out the alpha versions of the software before a wider group gets to test it.

By the way, there are usually multiple rounds, sometimes quite a few rounds of alpha testing and there are usually multiple levels of alpha testers (the more people that use the software the more alpha and beta levels there are) that test the system before a wider group gets to test it.

Eventually it gets released to the beta group. When this happens the software is considered to be 98 or 99% complete and working as expected. The only errors at this point are fringe cases where nobody in any of the alpha teams have experienced X, Y or Z issues with the software OR they haven't had >>repeatable<< errors. Meaning that sometimes you get an error and other times you don't even though you used very strict methods of trying to replicate the issue.

-----------

With Tesla the first team would be the programmers themselves and not even Elon would be allowed to use the software because it is not ready to test outside of extremely controlled circumstances. Meaning not out on public roads.

Only when they feel it is safe enough for Elon to use and they KNOW that the can always disable the software would they allow Elon to use it and he would give feedback that nobody outside of the computer programming industry is likely to be able to give because Elon knows how to program computers. It would take too much to explain this here but trust me, he knows how to program.

The next step is allowing a very expert group of Tesla employees who aren't programmers but who have been trained enough to know how to give consistent feedback vs other testers so that they aren't using different words to describe the same issues.

This is where version 11 is now.

Before they can release it to the Beta group (those of us with the street version of the beta software), Tesla has to test it under all weather conditions including hard core hot and cold and as many types of weather as they can put Tesla Full Self Driving beta through.

They also need to put it through enough miles that they have ironed out as many errors as they believe possible and it is to a point where they don't think there is much more to learn and only THEN do they release it to the Beta group. Not the WHOLE beta group but drivers in the beta group that they trust the most. Only Tesla knows who these people are for sure.

As that beta group is having problems finding problems with FSD then they release it to a larger group of Beta testers and at some people they release it to all beta testers.

Yes, long winded. Hopefully this clears up any questions you might have about Alpha and Beta versions of software.

Well written and welcome to fsdb and the forum. This is the kind of perspective we can use more of.

Cheers!

OlsonBW · Dec 4, 2022

Supcom said:
In Texas, NOA is used much more than on limited access roads. Outside of city limits, roads with 65+ mph speed limits will activate NOA. I regularly drive on two-lane 75 mph roads with NOA. These are roads with lots of cross streets, so you must be vigilant to cars slowing to turn off the highway as well as cars turning onto the highway and, of course, those just crossing. Generally, traffic lights are not an issue. FSDb generally takes over before a traffic light is encountered. When NOA does have to slow way down, it is very sluggish to speed back up unless you use the accelerator to get the car back up to 55 mph, or so.

I am very interested to see how V11 FSD handles these situations. It is curious that V11 is taking so long to be released given that NOA is supposedly so much simpler. Apparently it's not as simple as it appears.

I'm curious as to why you think V11 would use "much simpler" software. It would ONLY be simpler in the fact that it is using one one base vs two.

Think of each code base as a person with V11 having two codes bases (freeways and streets) it would be like two different people giving you instructions. One for freeways (your house for instance) and streets (your brother or sister) giving you instructions.

Moving V11 would have ONE "person" giving you instructions based on person giving you instructions for Streets and not the person giving you instructions for freeways.

Assuming that the person giving you instructions for the streets wants to take maps while you are on the freeway because they trust the "freeway" person to give you correct instructions but then when things get trickier the street person takes over with instructions.

In this case a human sister who knows how to drive on city streets would almost undoubtably also know how to drive on freeways. However, that can't be assumed with software (I work as a computer programmer, just so you know) that the street person also knows freeways.

It would make sense that they would but you don't know for sure until you test the software under as many conditions as reasonably possible by the programming team, then Elon gets involved. Elon is a very good programmer. He knows what he expects FSD to do (he runs the company and has the most control over it and what each group does) and he is an expert it giving extreme quality input/feedback to the programming group for everything that he experiences.

My guess is that he has an assistant (or did) in the car with him taking notes about who, what, where, why, when, etc., when he runs into an issue with FSD and this report would be given to the programming team (a specific person or two in the group who then relays it appropriately to the right people) and they use that information to update the programming and also test it to make sure that what he is seeing is what they see during visualizations and/or physically driving the same route as Elon to verify that they understand what he is saying is happening. I'm guessing that the verifying part rarely needs to happen. If someone has any questions about what happened they might have direct access to Elon to verify what he said and what he meant.

Once they have tested the software under every weather condition, extreme heat and cold, rain, snow, fog, sleet, elevation (high/medium/low), etc., etc., etc.

Once that all happens then it will be given to a very select group of Tesla employees who have been trained on how to give feedback to the programmers.

Once it passes their test it will be opened up to more Tesla employees and so forth until they feel that it is ready for a small set of public testers, the ones they trust most with the best ability/quality feedback and as time goes on they release it to more and more people until everyone has it.

There is no "simpler" version of software unless you dumb it down which is not happening FSD software. They aren't dumbing it down but removing the set of instructions meant only for freeways and whatever else that code base includes. But it not "simpler". There are just less code bases to deal with.

Zilla91 · Dec 4, 2022

Thought v11 was meant to be available before thanksgiving? It’s all gone a bit quiet about this…

FSDtester#1 · Dec 4, 2022

Zilla91 said:
Thought v11 was meant to be available before thanksgiving? It’s all gone a bit quiet about this…

Thanksgiving 2023... you were misinformed, sorry !

willow_hiller · Dec 4, 2022

Zilla91 said:
Thought v11 was meant to be available before thanksgiving? It’s all gone a bit quiet about this…

My optimistic guess is that V11 will be the holiday firmware release for this year, and Elon doesn't want to spoil the surprise.

My pessimistic guess is that V11 ended up needing a lot more work after the first group of employees tested it, and it was clear it wouldn't be ready for wide release this year, so Elon made 10.69.3.1 the wide release, and we'll hear more about V11 next year.

RickyFish89 · Dec 4, 2022

willow_hiller said:
My pessimistic guess is that V11 ended up needing a lot more work after the first group of employees tested it, and it was clear it wouldn't be ready for wide release this year, so Elon made 10.69.3.1 the wide release, and we'll hear more about V11 next year.

Yep, that'd be my guess as well. Seemingly randomly and unprompted announcing that FSD was wide to anyone, on a release that had been out for a bit, with the massive caveat that it was only available to people that hadn't updated their cars to 2022.40 yet. To me that definitely signals that v11 is not making it for Christmas and we'll either get a delayed holiday update, a 2-part holiday update with v11 coming in part 2, or maybe a combination where holiday update includes a slightly updated version of 10.69 to go further "wide" while v11 comes in Q1 of 23.

Buckminster · Dec 4, 2022

https://twitter.com/x/status/1599628966398025728

Mardak · Dec 4, 2022

RickyFish89 said:
To me that definitely signals that v11 is not making it for Christmas

Based on FSD Beta 10.69.3 being released instead of 11 for Thanksgiving? There were 2-week cycles in the past, and clearly there was some issue with 11 preventing release then, so you're suggesting whatever was close to being released definitely couldn't be fixed in 2 or 4 weeks?

Although with 10.69, even after releasing to the pre-Safety-Score testers (typically internal alpha -> "employees" -> "actually" early access -> safety score early access -> production), there were indeed a few versions before getting to the Safety Score group.

Mardak · Dec 4, 2022

Buckminster said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1599628966398025728

Some reason it feels like most of us Safety Score FSD Beta testers will be disbanded from early access. We already no longer have the video snapshot button whereas the much smaller group that got FSD Beta in 2020/earlier-2021 still have the button and might get FSD Beta 11 next week.

Potentially most of us will never get something labelled "FSD Beta 11" as it will just be a regular release as part of the holiday software update, which if following previous year versioning would be called "Software Version 12."

Mardak · Dec 5, 2022

willow_hiller said:
My optimistic guess is that V11 will be the holiday firmware release for this year, and Elon doesn't want to spoil the surprise

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how much gets revealed as part of early access testing of FSD Beta 11 vs held back for the holiday update.

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