FSD Beta v11.x

ScoobyDoo82 · Mar 19, 2023

For those of us (including myself) that are on the 2023 branch of updates (not prior FSD users) our update to v11.3.2 probably won’t be for some time. If i’m not mistaken, we need to wait for the FSD beta to be in latest update branch. So in other words, my FSD update will probably be something like 2023.8.1

Supcom · Mar 19, 2023

ScoobyDoo82 said:
For those of us (including myself) that are on the 2023 branch of updates (not prior FSD users) our update to v11.3.2 probably won’t be for some time. If i’m not mistaken, we need to wait for the FSD beta to be in latest update branch. So in other words, my FSD update will probably be something like 2023.8.1

Assuming Tesla continues previous practice, then your prediction is likely true.

To shorten the time to a minimum, you should not install any new updates until your car downloads an FSD beta version.

aviators99 · Mar 19, 2023

What's my best strategy to get V11 the soonest? I just took delivery on March 1, and currently have 2022.44.200. I'm currently in queue. I assume I should not cancel my queue and stay with the version I'm on? Or should I cancel the queue and hope for a later base version?

MarcG · Mar 19, 2023

gsmith123 said:
Teslafi reports how many cars they have on different versions, so we know there are about 175 on V11.3.2 and 4500 on FSD total. About 4% of the FSD population have gotten 11.3.2. Tesla has released info that there's around 400,000 FSD Beta cars (I'm going by memory on that one, but they have released that info), so 4% of that is about 16,000 cars.

Gotcha, thanks for expanding on your analysis.

I think the 400k number is probably closer to 300k though, given Tesla confirmed 285k about 3 months ago:

Tesla confirms 285,000 people bought Full Self-Driving

Tesla has confirmed that over 285,000 people bought its Full Self-Driving (FSD) package in North America.

electrek.co

valem · Mar 19, 2023

gsmith123 said:
So a 10% chance of getting it!

You're telling me there is a chance?

FSDtester#1 · Mar 19, 2023

MarcG said:
Gotcha, thanks for expanding on your analysis.

I think the 400k number is probably closer to 300k though, given Tesla confirmed 285k about 3 months ago:

Tesla confirms 285,000 people bought Full Self-Driving

Tesla has confirmed that over 285,000 people bought its Full Self-Driving (FSD) package in North America.

electrek.co

It's probably closer to 400K

Tesla's Full Self-Driving Beta pool balloons to ~400,000 users

Tesla's Full Self-Driving Beta pool has ballooned by more than double in just a matter of months.

www.teslarati.com

“We have now released FSD beta to nearly all customers in the US and Canada who bought FSD (approximately 400,000). This is an important milestone for our company. Every customer in the US and Canada can now access FSD Beta functionality upon purchase/subscription and start experiencing the evolution of AI-powered autonomy.”

JHCCAZ · Mar 19, 2023

TK211X said:
I’m just keeping an eye out hopeful that one pops up because I’m on 2022.44.100 and in queue since delivery.

Can’t not look at TeslaFi craving a sign.

An additional constraint for your car, being on a "break-in" or "shipment" firmware release, is that you may have to wait for some unknowable configuration patch to be mainstreamed into the standard releases.

If you're lucky, that could have been included in the 2022.45.11 package, but it's far from certain. I'd say it won't happen by accident, but only if someone at Tesla deems it a minor priority to get FSDb to the newest cars ASAP. Even without the FSDb complication, my car languished on its factory shipment firmware for about 7 weeks before I finally got the holiday update in late 2021.

JHCCAZ · Mar 19, 2023

aviators99 said:
What's my best strategy to get V11 the soonest? I just took delivery on March 1, and currently have 2022.44.200. I'm currently in queue. I assume I should not cancel my queue and stay with the version I'm on? Or should I cancel the queue and hope for a later base version?

I think you are in the same situation as @TK211X . See my message just above on that subject.

I would definitely advise you to stay in the queue and not cancel it, unless you just really want some new feature like Auto steering wheel Heating or you just really don't want to be on the shipment firmware anymore. Staying in the queue is your best shot at holding off unhelpful new versions that will just keep you perennially ahead of the FSDb versions.

I'm sure that at some level, Tesla themselves would like to resolve this and simplify their already complicated software release management, so that FSDb becomes just a standard part of standard software for those who purchase or subscribe.

I was hoping to see this happen from the December updates going forward, but unfortunately they reverted to the prior pattern where FSDb legs the standard software releases.

KrazinAz · Mar 19, 2023

FSDtester#1 said:
It's probably closer to 400K

Tesla's Full Self-Driving Beta pool balloons to ~400,000 users

Tesla's Full Self-Driving Beta pool has ballooned by more than double in just a matter of months.

www.teslarati.com

“We have now released FSD beta to nearly all customers in the US and Canada who bought FSD (approximately 400,000). This is an important milestone for our company. Every customer in the US and Canada can now access FSD Beta functionality upon purchase/subscription and start experiencing the evolution of AI-powered autonomy.”

I think the 400k number was from the earnings call in late January. It says 400k bought FSD, but I wonder how many more are monthly subscription? Cant imagine there are that many subscribers.

ScoobyDoo82 · Mar 19, 2023

Supcom said:
Assuming Tesla continues previous practice, then your prediction is likely true.

To shorten the time to a minimum, you should not install any new updates until your car downloads an FSD beta version.

Yea.. that’s my plan. If a new 2023.X.X update comes in that is not containing FSD I will not install it. I might even go so far as to remove my wifi credentials from the car so that it doesn’t connect when I pull into/park in my garage.

FOOLSLFDRVNG · Mar 19, 2023

MarcG said:
Gotcha, thanks for expanding on your analysis.

I think the 400k number is probably closer to 300k though, given Tesla confirmed 285k about 3 months ago:

Tesla confirms 285,000 people bought Full Self-Driving

Tesla has confirmed that over 285,000 people bought its Full Self-Driving (FSD) package in North America.

electrek.co

Canceled subscribers who gave up after waiting on promises, loyal Tesla buyers who got FSD much less sub 10k and not willing to pay a whopping 15k when getting a newer Tesla.

dramsey · Mar 19, 2023

Todd Burch said:
"V11 starts going wide this weekend." -Elon Musk

This is the same guy who said it would go into wide release “in a few weeks” last November…

FSDtester#1 · Mar 19, 2023

400+ just dumped on teslafi

Now you can burn your daily software check!

TeslaFi.com Firmware Tracker

tdiggity · Mar 19, 2023

I’ve been chosen! See you on the other side.

swedge · Mar 19, 2023

gsmith123 said:
It has! A surprising number of people on this forum have suggested that once FSD was available to everyone who wanted it and/or when single stack was released then Tesla would just stop doing gradual rollouts. Basically they'd go back to how "production" code releases have historically worked.

I personally think that's highly unlikely. They've had over two years to perfect how to minimize risk with incremental releases. That's just a free benefit for Tesla, I can't see why they'd stop. There's only upside for them.

Pure speculation on my part here, but perhaps FSD beta was different, and quicker roll-outs may resume soon. Freeways are pretty similar to each other, with far fewer edge cases. City streets vary tremendously and include crossing traffic, pedestrians, stops, turns, random signs, etc, etc, etc. So, testing AutoPilot did not need tons of training video collected from tens of thousands of drivers, while FSD on city streets did, and still does.

The problem would have been that as long as the software was not ready to handle the variety of situations, it was not very safe. Hence the Safety Score, which I viewed more as training us to really pay attention than a sorting for great drivers. We all learned what SS wanted and how to get a great score.

Now that FSD in city streets has supposedly achieved a proven accident rate substantially lower than human drivers, it may be possible to roll out incremental improvements widely more quickly, after they have been tested for dumb regressions in a smaller test releases.

V11 was a bit of a special case, because it replaces the old AutoPilot, which had an established safety record, and had the entire Tesla driver population trained on how it behaves. V11, will be different, but replacing AP for everyone with that FSD code will take some pretty thorough testing. Once that is done, they may be able to go back to more frequent and quicker wide releases.

Sadly, the in-city FSD still has a number of problems still requiring improvement. I have four routine interventions within a couple miles of leaving the house, every time I leave home. So it is not quite time to consider FSD beta done, but as those issues are fixed, quicker rollouts won't surprise me because of the proven safety of the existing code.

ChaoticNeutral · Mar 19, 2023

installing v11!!!! Only time will tell if HWY lane changes will work with a non-functioning USS now that it’s FSD on the freeway.

JHCCAZ · Mar 19, 2023

dramsey said:
This is the same guy who said it would go into wide release “in a few weeks” last November…

Eighteen weeks can be a "few" weeks...
When I tell my wife "I'll get to it in a few minutes", it's hardly ever less than 18.
When I tell her "I only ate a few of those chips", it's always more than 18.

swedge · Mar 19, 2023

FSDtester#1 said:
400+ just dumped on teslafi

Now you can burn your daily software check!

TeslaFi.com Firmware Tracker

Yippee! But I tried at 4 this afternoon, so I can only look forward till late tomorrow, sigh. Time to go for a walk rather than a drive, I guess.

FSDtester#1 · Mar 19, 2023

swedge said:
Yippee! But I tried at 4 this afternoon, so I can only look forward till late tomorrow, sigh. Time to go for a walk rather than a drive, I guess.

Waking your car up will also sometimes get the update.
Play with some buttons on the app or move the car a few feet.

D Good · Mar 19, 2023

No luck.

Ever since Oct 2021 I’ve always been dead last getting these updates. Oh well.

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