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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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You must not have a refresh model S. It drives like complete *sugar* so you have to supervise it more than just relaxing and watching the butterflies around you
It's a 2018 M3 with the (refreshed from 2.5) 3.0 computer, LR, RWD. It has it's ugly bits and the wheel does jerk in the inappropriate moments. And, no, I'm not watching butterflies - I'm watching other cars. That being the point.
 
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FWIW, I drove to work and back then to a meeting 20 min away and back with no interventions today.

Sure- I've mentioned any number of 0 intervention drives I've had too-- generally when there's little to no traffic, and/or I'm mostly on simple or one-way-each-way roads.

When there's not much traffic, but on multi-lane roads, I can usually just let it do the weird dive into the wrong lane, or change into then shortly back out of, the wrong lane, or a UPL with nobody coming, or take way too long to handle an intersection because it stops too far back, then takes too long to creep, then takes too long to finally go... because nobody else is around to be annoyed or potentially be dangerous about it.

But add much traffic and the same route now is going to have interventions. Sometimes courtesy ones (to not upset other drivers) and sometimes safety ones (not letting it drive into a UPL with oncoming traffic dangerously close, or finally after taking to long to start a right at an intersection turning when there's oncoming traffic too close.

Also this assumes clear weather... soon as there's much about light rain we get degradation of capabilities too.


All of which tells me with enough additional development they'll eventually be able to roll out a quite capable L2 ADAS system that works in urban environments.

But instills very little faith they're remotely near, nor have the HW able to ever achieve, any widespread L4 system.

I still have hopes of L3 highway-only- which is all I really ever bought FSD hoping to get back in 2018 (though I expected it'd be here a lot sooner).
 
Wow.
Chuck shows some BAD behavior on narrow (and even not so narrow) roads. Keeps stopping for oncoming cars. Odd that it is not highlighting them as Blue though. Definitely need a 11.4.2 update.

Chuck shows some BAD behavior on narrow (and even not so narrow) roads. Keeps stopping for oncoming cars. Odd that it is not highlighting them as Blue though. Definitely need a 11.4.2 update.

Wow. I thought my road I live on is narrow. The first 5 or so minutes of proved me wrong.

So, my backwoods, unmarked road I live on is definitely wider than what’s shown in the first five minutes of Chucks video. I have had the same behavior since 10.3. There’s a hair pin turn basically in front of my house. The other day, my neighbor was going through the apex of that turn, surprisingly, my car hugged the right of the lane, and we both made it through with no issues. Might have just been a fluke. Other parts of my road, oncoming traffic causes my car to slow to a crawl while they pass. Very unconventional.
This should be fixed, big time.

Funny though, like two miles down from my house there is another unmarked road, but much wider. Car handles this perfectly, with or without oncoming traffic. Definitely an issue with the actual width of the said lane.
 
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Sure- I've mentioned any number of 0 intervention drives I've had too-- generally when there's little to no traffic, and/or I'm mostly on simple or one-way-each-way roads.

When there's not much traffic, but on multi-lane roads, I can usually just let it do the weird dive into the wrong lane, or change into then shortly back out of, the wrong lane, or a UPL with nobody coming, or take way too long to handle an intersection because it stops too far back, then takes too long to creep, then takes too long to finally go... because nobody else is around to be annoyed or potentially be dangerous about it.

But add much traffic and the same route now is going to have interventions. Sometimes courtesy ones (to not upset other drivers) and sometimes safety ones (not letting it drive into a UPL with oncoming traffic dangerously close, or finally after taking to long to start a right at an intersection turning when there's oncoming traffic too close.

Also this assumes clear weather... soon as there's much about light rain we get degradation of capabilities too.


All of which tells me with enough additional development they'll eventually be able to roll out a quite capable L2 ADAS system that works in urban environments.

But instills very little faith they're remotely near, nor have the HW able to ever achieve, any widespread L4 system.

I still have hopes of L3 highway-only- which is all I really ever bought FSD hoping to get back in 2018 (though I expected it'd be here a lot sooner).
2 of the trips were midday and the final trip was at 5 PM with rush hour traffic.
 
2 of the trips were midday and the final trip was at 5 PM with rush hour traffic.


...ok, and?

The plural of anecdote is not data of course- but we do have much more broadly sourced data than "one guy who took a couple of drives" showing interventions remain quite common for fsdb, with the rate not remotely approaching anything where a sane business would consider taking any responsibility for the driving task.

151 testers across 45 states currently tracked here:

Current version remains barely below 100 miles between critical interventions needed, below 50% for percent of drives with no disengagement needed, and hasn't even reached having a single 9 directly to the left of the decimal point (let alone a march of them after it) for percent of drives completed without a safety critical disengagement needed.
 
Current version remains barely below 100 miles between critical interventions needed, below 50% for percent of drives with no disengagement needed…

I’m a glass half full kind of a guy .. still surprised so many are intervention free drives. Some people here make it seem l8ke FSD can’t drive more than a mile with disengagement.
 
Remotely updated route data has resulted in some improved lane selection still on FSD Beta 11.3.6 and NA-2022.28-14046 (not the new NA-2022.44-14515) navigation data compared to even last week, but looks like it might not yet be able to override overfitting of lane guidance neural networks where it ignores the visible double yellow lines and mispredicts white lines to cross:

tacc vs fsd beta 11.3.6.jpg


The left side shows TACC seemingly using some other neural network not relying on lane guidance to correctly predict the adjacent double yellow lines. The right side shows FSD Beta wanting to cross over the actual double yellow lines shown in left repeater view to where oncoming traffic temporarily drives during this construction phase. At least when there's cars actively driving towards us, it knows there's not enough space to switch, but once they pass, I need to disengage before it switches into what used to be a left-turn lane.
 
...
The left side shows TACC seemingly using some other neural network not relying on lane guidance to correctly predict the adjacent double yellow lines. The right side shows FSD Beta wanting to cross over the actual double yellow lines shown in left repeater view to where oncoming traffic temporarily drives during this construction phase. At least when there's cars actively driving towards us, it knows there's not enough space to switch, but once they pass, I need to disengage before it switches into what used to be a left-turn lane.
Props for the description plus the excellent images including the left repeater view.

Aside: GreenTheOnly has mentioned that there can be map updates without the NA-20YY.WW-##### full OTAs. Maybe that is what you were implying.
 
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I wonder if others are finding this in their highway drives. Usually when driving FSDj my car stays very true to the map and follows the highway. Yesterday, it followed the car in front of me going off the exit ramp where I did not want to go. Anyone else?
I've never seen that. I've had it miss an exit because it couldn't or just didn't get over, but it's never followed another car on a bad route.

The map is updated every 2 min when driving, maybe the car was re-routing and it didn't display on your navigation.
 
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Must be burb's to burb's. Also in ATL a 20 minute drive might only be 1¾ miles away. That is not too impressive for 0 interventions.🤣
Yeah - I interventions when all the car has do do is stand still in gridlock isn’t saying much!

Yes, it was ‘burb to burb,’ about 40 miles total.

...ok, and?

The plural of anecdote is not data of course- but we do have much more broadly sourced data than "one guy who took a couple of drives" showing interventions remain quite common for fsdb, with the rate not remotely approaching anything where a sane business would consider taking any responsibility for the driving task.
And you claimed to care about the traffic in your previous comment but clearly you were just running off at the mouth again.

Also, the pleural of anecdote actually is data.
 
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