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The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.


Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.


Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.


screenshot-teslamotorsclub.com-2022.01.26-21_30_17.png


Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

 
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Everyone has their problem spot with FSD and mine is the simple 4 way stop then left turn into our housing development. Previous FSD versions would stop at the stop sign then proceed normally then get very confused about the left turn, then start to go straight then stop then make a sharper left turn. Pretty horrible. With 11.4.2 it is the worst it ever has been. Now it seems to be too stupid to realize there is a 4 way stop so now slowly creeps ahead, apparently looking for oncoming traffic? Then after that it proceeds to screw up the turn as I described above. So 11.4.2 is tossed into the garbage pile and once again I am waiting for the next best super duper upgrade. Actually after 6 months with FSD and my Model Y I don't get that excited about FSD upgrades anymore.
 
Previous FSD versions would stop at the stop sign then proceed normally then get very confused about the left turn, then start to go straight then stop then make a sharper left turn. Pretty horrible. With 11.4.2 it is the worst it ever has been. Now it seems to be too stupid to realize there is a 4 way stop so now slowly creeps ahead, apparently looking for oncoming traffic?

I have a similar four-way stop near me that typically has cars parked in bad spots fully blocking the view of on-coming traffic. I don't think creeping in this situation is a bug, I think it's a feature.

We take for granted that a four-way stop typically means it's safe to proceed even with blocked sight-lines. But FSDb isn't going to take chances and proceed at full speed into an intersection while blind. In general, assuming human drivers will obey traffic laws is a bad survival strategy for an autonomous vehicle.
 
Everyone has their problem spot with FSD and mine is the simple 4 way stop then left turn into our housing development. Previous FSD versions would stop at the stop sign then proceed normally then get very confused about the left turn, then start to go straight then stop then make a sharper left turn. Pretty horrible. With 11.4.2 it is the worst it ever has been. Now it seems to be too stupid to realize there is a 4 way stop so now slowly creeps ahead, apparently looking for oncoming traffic? Then after that it proceeds to screw up the turn as I described above. So 11.4.2 is tossed into the garbage pile and once again I am waiting for the next best super duper upgrade. Actually after 6 months with FSD and my Model Y I don't get that excited about FSD upgrades anymore.
That definitely sounds like a map problem.

BTW, if you have a problem with one turn close to your house, why would you throw the entire FSD out ?
 
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That definitely sounds like a map problem.

BTW, if you have a problem with one turn close to your house, why would you throw the entire FSD out ?
Speaking of map issues..

Got the map update to the 2022.44-whatever-the-heck-it-was from this last December three or four days ago. Today, was heading south on US 1 in Edison, NJ. This particular section of road with 3/4 lanes of traffic in each direction, heavy traffic at nearly all times, and speed limit signs with 50 on top and "trucks 45" below, would typically drive FSD nuts. It would split the single sign into two signs, one with 50, one with 45, and make them do a flutter on the screen. Sometimes it would pick 45 and slow the car madly; sometimes it would pick 50 and stay with traffic.

Today it went through that section with no fluttering on the signs whatsoever and kept the speed limit at 50 throughout. I'm still on 11.3.6.. but I'm thinking that the map update had something to do with the sanity.
 
Possibly true granted some have Extreme expectations that will never be managed. Judging the technology by how well it manages the juice in your sippy cup comes to mind… lol.
Well, it’s supposed to be super human and it can’t even brake without spilling my coffee…. Unless superhuman means an extra chromosome….
Wait ... when did you buy FSD ?
When only shills had it and that was the only Intel I had.
 
That reminds me, I am constantly battling the speed scroll wheel on some highways with constant limit changes. On highway 17 back from Santa Cruz, there are all sorts of speed limit changes along with construction limits, etc. I did no less than 10 scroll wheel battles with FSDb.

There is *NO* way a robotaxi can follow all these speed limits and not be at an increased risk of accidents.

There are many construction limits on the way to Monterey and back that aren't even relevant anymore. Not a single person follows the limits.
 
That reminds me, I am constantly battling the speed scroll wheel on some highways with constant limit changes. On highway 17 back from Santa Cruz, there are all sorts of speed limit changes along with construction limits, etc. I did no less than 10 scroll wheel battles with FSDb.

There is *NO* way a robotaxi can follow all these speed limits and not be at an increased risk of accidents.

There are many construction limits on the way to Monterey and back that aren't even relevant anymore. Not a single person follows the limits.
Would be interesting to see what Waymo does with this if they ever work on highways.

One odd advantag Waymo etc have is they have all these ugly sensors everywhere so people expect them to behave weirdly.
 
I have a similar four-way stop near me that typically has cars parked in bad spots fully blocking the view of on-coming traffic. I don't think creeping in this situation is a bug, I think it's a feature.

We take for granted that a four-way stop typically means it's safe to proceed even with blocked sight-lines. But FSDb isn't going to take chances and proceed at full speed into an intersection while blind. In general, assuming human drivers will obey traffic laws is a bad survival strategy for an autonomous vehicle.
I’ve been fsd beta testing for about 20 months and generally agree about being overly-cautious with low visibility cross traffic. Except in my neighborhood, it’s the opposite problem, which I attribute to bad map data.

It’s an urban area but the infrastructure isn’t great so we have two way yield signs as well as entirely uncontrolled 4 way intersections (crazy I know). Beta just blows through them as if there is no intersection there. I was hoping the nhtsa recall would help but no such luck. It’s such low hanging fruit I can’t believe this hasn’t been fixed, hence why I assume the correct map data just doesn’t exist yet.

Yield sign recognition obviously needs to be addressed pronto because one of them is registered as a stop sign and then ignored coming from the other direction (at the same intersection).
 
I agree and am not a YouTuber. It completed the first intervention free trip in SoCal. In city and then merging on highway in a complicated merge scenario of off and on highway sub lane with traffic getting off and on at the same time. Never successfully done this before 11.4.2. In average mode.
I also had my first 11.4.2 trip today, also in So Cal.

This is the first version I think is reasonably acceptable to be called 'beta' vs 'alpha/development/some-dudes-random-branch'. It took a somewhat complex intersection with 5 incoming streets and no fully protected turn reasonably well at night, one where it usually freaked out and stopped in the middle. Other driving was reasonable, speed choices appropriate enough; previously it was either too slow or inappropriately fast and jerked between the extremes at times.

11.3.6 was much better on freeways than previous versions, but still so inadequate off freeways I stopped using it there. Now it may be useful in some street situations, though I will be ready to drive manually.

My criterion is judging as a L2+ driving assist product. For that, it's now reasonable, at least in California.

No it's not worth $15K. I would call what's now "FSD" as Enhanced Autopilot for $6K, what's now EAP as a $3K Autopilot Plus, and say FSD is some vague future goal.

The map routing is still persistently wrong right near my house.
 
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Would be interesting to see what Waymo does with this if they ever work on highways.
They would pay employees to take trips on all the common roads/highways in the service regions and human annotate and correct the obvious mistakes in maps when the cars behave in an undesirable way.

Then measure what other cars do while driving and correlate their average speeds vs location to find potential additional map errors automatically. This can happen with no-human cars.

Once all that is done they allow paying passengers.
 
Just back from a 2700 mile trip to San Diego, Yosemite, and Sonoma wine country. 3.6 was nice overall but moving out of the passing lane unprompted was my main “issue” - rarely does it unless someone is riding your butt. Any improvement on 4.2? Have another long trip in Sep, hope it’s fixed by then. Otherwise no real complaints.
It still hangs out in the left lane (passing lane). If a car comes up fast and gets close enough it signals and movers over, but if it approaches to slow and doesn't get close enough, you have to manually move over. They should address this because you can get ticketed for hanging out in the left lane. On 81 and also NY thruway it stayed in left lane even though there were no cars around in the right lane. Several times I had to use the blinker. Overall it is pretty cool and did all the heavy driving, 5hrs up and 7hrs back over the holiday weekend. Little more work needs to be done on lane changing with cars on the left. I'm not as aggressive as I used to be and I'd rather wait until I had a big gap (I have it set to Average) rather than squeeze in, but that's me. Probably because the car is in control and not me and I want that buffer just in case.

Phantom slow downs also seem to have been fixed or significantly reduced. I also notice that it no longer tries to turn into the left lane at the grocery store up the road and is back to continuing straight. That only happened in 11.3.6., so they fixed that too. More testing to find what else has been fixed and what needs to be addressed. Sloooooowwww progress.....
 
Well, it’s supposed to be super human and it can’t even brake without spilling my coffee…. Unless superhuman means an extra chromosome….

When only shills had it and that was the only Intel I had.
So assume that means 2020? When I was watching the "shills" it was clear there were lots of problems and that it was going to be awhile before FSD was going to be close to full self driving so I don't buy your excuse.
You might try using a cover on your coffee :)
 
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Everyone has their problem spot with FSD and mine is the simple 4 way stop then left turn into our housing development. Previous FSD versions would stop at the stop sign then proceed normally then get very confused about the left turn, then start to go straight then stop then make a sharper left turn. Pretty horrible. With 11.4.2 it is the worst it ever has been. Now it seems to be too stupid to realize there is a 4 way stop so now slowly creeps ahead, apparently looking for oncoming traffic? Then after that it proceeds to screw up the turn as I described above. So 11.4.2 is tossed into the garbage pile and once again I am waiting for the next best super duper upgrade. Actually after 6 months with FSD and my Model Y I don't get that excited about FSD upgrades anymore.
Stuff like this has been one of the most frustrating parts of FSDb for me almost since I started testing it. FSDb would consistently fail seemingly simple tasks like proceeding straight in the same lane instead of taking a turn lane and getting confused. A new version would come out and it would manage some of the old problem spots but then have problems with another one.

The thing I’ve noticed is that each version does get incrementally better, even if there are also some regressions. Two steps forward, one step back, but still it does move forward. When I consider it’s performance 12-14 months ago and compare it with performance today it’s clearly better but the progress was often difficult to see at the time. The trap we all fall in to is we keep expecting the miracle version that fixes all of our problem spots. Maybe that version will come but it hasn’t yet and I doubt it will. Instead there will continue to be improvements in increments.
 
Yesterday was a smooth sailing. I went to work, then went to Orange County and went back to a relative's home, and my home. Freeway handling during rush hour and during late night with heavy road work was very comfortable. No nags at night because I wore glasses. Turnings were very good in neighborhoods. There were 3 minor issues:
1. The car slowed down and stayed about 1.5 car length from the car in front when entering freeway with lots of cars in the morning.
2. The car stayed on the rightmost lane on a 3 lane road and changed lane at the last minute when the rightmost lane was cut off (3 lane road became 2 lane road).
3. The car stayed on the right, too close to the curb when it was on the rightmost lane. This made me feel uncomfortable especially when the road surface was curved. It should stay close to the left lane marker. This is not a problem with vision or NN. I think it's a bad algorithm used by the young developers without driving experience (unless someone at Tesla tell me why).
 
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That definitely sounds like a map problem.

BTW, if you have a problem with one turn close to your house, why would you throw the entire FSD out ?
Two things. First, the sight lines are always clear at the 4 way stop. Zero need to creep out, and it takes so long that it is not practical. It never used to do this so a new behavior. I am not throwing FSD out. I am just so frustrated that I really don't use it in traffic. I still use Autopilot on the highway and am pretty happy with that. Also there is a new "feature". A couple of times when turning into my driveway I get a "lane departure" warning-not when using FSD either-just normal driving. I should make sure all the cameras are working properly. The street is two way with no dividing line so not sure what the car thinks is going on. This is new with the latest software update.