powertoold
Active Member
Some of these drives are approaching Waymo performance in areas more complicated than Chandler (IMO):
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Car handles a couple of roundabouts well. The second one in particular was very good as the car didn’t stop at the yield sign but just entered the roundabout. Handled a tricky situation in the parking lot. And then failed a third attempt at a roundabout at the end of the vid.
Beta handles some turns on some narrow streets very well.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Sorry for all the snark
Nobody knows what will actually be delivered to customers. Some of us think that Tesla will never release something like beta FSD because it will not be safe when used by the average person until it does not require supervision. Some people think they will not be able to achieve that with the current hardware and some question whether it is achievable at all without a huge breakthrough in artificial intelligence. Tesla could release what you see in the videos tomorrow if they wanted to. No one knows what criteria they're using to make that decision.
TLDR: Wait for the subscription!
mikes_fsd
Banned
You would get whatever they're having (hopefully better than what we're seeing in the videos right now) once it is deployed to the rest of the fleet.
The exact timing of that deployment no one knows.
Right now, it is in this closed beta stage.
The next step is to see it in the early access program, which is a whole lot more Tesla owners with FSD package.
But how long each step will take in real time, no one knows.
Tesla and Elon say you will. Tesla and Elon say a lot of things will happen that never have.
mikes_fsd
Banned
If you're leasing a car, sure.
But if you're like me, who keeps his cars on average for 9 years, you're better off buying.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
There is no guarantee of anything. We don't know when the general public will get the capabilities in the beta 9 videos since the software is still beta and Tesla will only release it when they feel it is "good enough". We don't know when that will happen. FSD Beta V9 could go out to the general public next month, 6 months, a year or maybe it gets delayed even longer.
Agreed. Next FSD beta update, unprotected left videos from Chuck is all I am interested in
Ok, I think I understand. The intent is to try to get the capabilities being tested in beta 9 to the public in the relative short term, they're not long term to never pie in the sky capabilities. Whether that actually happens or not, I understand, who knows, because they have to make basic decisions about safety and all that. But the intent of the effort is to get these out and we'll just have to wait and see if that happens. As far as subscription or not, that just depends. If my car falls on this side of the full up next gen Y I can easily see only keeping this one a few years then trading in for a fully realized longer range next gen Y and not worrying about FSD at all. And if I get another one in two years or so relook at FSD then and see where it actually is.
powertoold
Active Member
Super impressive right here, the red car moved into fsd's lane mid-turn, and V9 didn't speed the car to avoid it (see the red car highlighted in gray). This is "expert" human driving and mind-boggling computer vision magic:
The absolute worst thing about the FSD beta for us Seattle folks is this idiot is the only one that seems to have the beta who posts videos.
I find his posts unbearable.
The hyped up super Tesla positive language
The constant use of 7X fast forward
The lack of any kind of critical thinking.
My expectation is that we won't see a huge delay (longer than 3 months), but we will see a reduction in capabilities.
As you pointed out V9 doesn't even attempt to turn a right onto a high speed road without being told to go.
I expect all uncontrolled lefts to require activation.
There might be some other low hanging fruit that is pushed to "confirmation needed" for the initial public release of V9.
I wish some technical people had the beta, not just youtubers. James Douma, George Hotz, Green etc. Someone who understands the difference between sees and visualizes. Hopefully the beta will expand soon.
Anyway I think the videos are looking promising. It seems to be about where autopilot is now, you can use it to relax your driving most of the time, but when there is something going on, like construction, chaotic city enviroments etc you take over. But over time you have to take over less. I think if I had access to it, my rate of accidents per million kilometers would be less than it is today and I would have more energy. FSD still a few itertions away, hopefully not 6months iterations like v9.
Anyway I think the videos are looking promising. It seems to be about where autopilot is now, you can use it to relax your driving most of the time, but when there is something going on, like construction, chaotic city enviroments etc you take over. But over time you have to take over less. I think if I had access to it, my rate of accidents per million kilometers would be less than it is today and I would have more energy. FSD still a few itertions away, hopefully not 6months iterations like v9.
powertoold
Active Member
Very nice first impression. Now to wait and see how it performs in downtown Sac and on those weird small roundabouts he has, where previous builds struggled mightily.
Haha that's funny being that Tesla has been always 2 years behind mobileye in NN development and deployment.
Infact that visualization while abit stable than before doesn't solve the vehicle disappearing problem. As Mobileye has said in the past. Their viz is only displaying the output of one NN model which is the per frame bounding box. The viz has high threshold and only shows objects that are completely not obstructed or even partially occluded. You can see this by comparing the viz in the car vs the raw bounding box output. Not only that but the viz is also lagged.
For anyone who actually cares...Mobileye actually has 3 different detection NN models:
1. Per frame bounding box including vehicles, lanes, road edges, road markings, etc.
2. Full scene Per pixel segmentation
3. Vidar (Pseudo Lidar)
The supervision software that ME has demonstrated all over the world doesn't use just #1 which is what the current visualization in the car is based on. It uses a model that combines all three to achieve something that even V9 and Tesla has not achieved (4D object permanence).
As you can see with v9 video and with other videos, objects and vehicle still disappear after being occluded.
Mobileye show the output of their environmental NN model that supervision drives with and you see 4D object permanence.
The only one who is light years ahead is Mobileye.
4m40s
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powertoold
Active Member
Mobileye is done for, has been since Tesla broke up with them. V9 is so so impressive. Tesla Vision is a software / technical / engineering marvel. I'd even hazard to say that Waymo is done for as well (just watched a Waymo video to balance out my perspective). It's sad that everyone else is pursuing fsd the wrong way, but I totally understand how immensely difficult it'd be to change their approaches.
powertoold
Active Member
This one will be fun:
Check out this path. It'd give me PTSD:
Check out this path. It'd give me PTSD:
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