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FSD beta waiting game

Apparently everyone will get access to the beta by the end of this year according to Musk?
I listened carefully to the whole analyst phone conference.

Elon clearly said that new customers who bought FSD would get FSDb right away. He said nothing that directly applied to what is currently, I think, the main problem--that policy prohibits installing software with an older code base than the software already on the car.

That problem meant the September expansion was nowhere near the initially mentioned +60k, and that problem remains.

They could fix it within not too many weeks simply by stopping making any new general release that has a code base higher than the current FSDb release. We'll see what they actually do.
 
Bought Model Y at the end of May and also in queue for FSD beta. Droves 3912 miles with Safety score 99-100. Uphill now, no signs of invitation for Beta. When will this game be over? Anyway I will know that I will get Beta? Lost all the hope for now
I am just wondering, if you have a safety score of 100, say, won't that discourage Tesla to issue FSD Beta to you? FSD would certainly not meet your 100 safety score and disappoint you. This waiting game sucks! You pay more than 10K just for seemingly endless wait.
 
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I am just wondering, if you have a safety score of 100, say, won't that discourage Tesla to issue FSD Beta to you? FSD would certainly not meet your 100 safety score and disappoint you. This waiting game sucks! You pay more than 10K just for seemingly endless wait.
Yes long wait for sure. But the 100 score encourages them to give you the beta because it's hard to keep a 100 score without close attention to your driving. FSD Beta requires close attention as well, but to how the car is driving.
 
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DCGOO

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I am just wondering, if you have a safety score of 100, say, won't that discourage Tesla to issue FSD Beta to you? FSD would certainly not meet your 100 safety score and disappoint you. This waiting game sucks! You pay more than 10K just for seemingly endless wait.
You did not pay 10K for the beta. You paid 10K for FSD Capability (future). It only works on limited access highways at the present time. The FSD on City Streets potion of the package has not been released yet. NO ONE has it. A tiny portion of us here have agreed to be part of an experiment to get it working. But it is hardly finished quality. If you expect your car to work flawlessly, you should not be anxious to get FSD Beta. I am one of those that has it. It makes lots of mistakes, some dangerous. Be Very Careful what you wish for.
 
A tiny portion of us here have agreed to be part of an experiment to get it working.
Not so very tiny. Among fewer than 20,000 TeslaFi subscribers, currently 4,024 are reported as having the current FSDb release installed on their cars. My estimate is that means about 120,000 North American customers are currently driving around with FSDb installed. Now I don't know just how often each driver does the double-stalk pull, nor do I know how many never found the activation menu item. Nevertheless, there are quite a few of us.
 
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Not so very tiny. Among fewer than 20,000 TeslaFi subscribers, currently 4,024 are reported as having the current FSDb release installed on their cars. My estimate is that means about 120,000 North American customers are currently driving around with FSDb installed. Now I don't know just how often each driver does the double-stalk pull, nor do I know how many never found the activation menu item. Nevertheless, there are quite a few of us.
I had the same thought, however, to get to that conclusion we need to assume that the same % of driver that buy FSD also pay for TeslaFi. I thought it is possible that drivers that paid for FSD are more likely to pay for TeslaFi (I'm only calling myself a geek =) Therefore the actual percentage of drivers that got FSD would be less than TeslaFi statistics. Hope it makes sense!
 
I had a 100 score with more than 750 miles driven on FSD over the past 30 days until a false FCW brought me down a point this afternoon. Not a huge deal, but I'm just tired of driving extra carefully, worried about stupid things like false warnings or some jerk pulling out in front of me, making me slam on my brakes potentially killing my score. This whole thing is such a joke.
 
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drtimhill

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Apr 25, 2019
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I had the same thought, however, to get to that conclusion we need to assume that the same % of driver that buy FSD also pay for TeslaFi. I thought it is possible that drivers that paid for FSD are more likely to pay for TeslaFi (I'm only calling myself a geek =) Therefore the actual percentage of drivers that got FSD would be less than TeslaFi statistics. Hope it makes sense!
According to Tesla there are now over 160,000 beta testers, the vast majority in the US (some are in Canada, now sure about other countries).
 
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DCGOO

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Nov 24, 2015
2,929
2,035
Indianapolis, IN
Not so very tiny. Among fewer than 20,000 TeslaFi subscribers, currently 4,024 are reported as having the current FSDb release installed on their cars. My estimate is that means about 120,000 North American customers are currently driving around with FSDb installed. Now I don't know just how often each driver does the double-stalk pull, nor do I know how many never found the activation menu item. Nevertheless, there are quite a few of us.
That is a pretty tiny percentage of the 2 million or so teslas on the road here. Though I agree that most of them are probably here on TMC.
 

drtimhill

Active Member
Apr 25, 2019
3,507
4,538
Seattle
That is my point exactly. Out of the totality of Tesla owners, very few are running FSD Beta.
I'm not sure 160,000 is "very few", since this is really about absolute numbers. When testing software there are diminishing returns when you get past a certain number of testers - all you get are redundant reports of the same issues. While testing NNs on something as complex as FSD does need a large test population, my guess is that Tesla are close to saturation point for directed testing. At that point all that is really left is increasing the test population to try to find the very obscure issues (meaning, like it or not for FSD, seeing if it crashes if you give it to pretty much everyone).
 
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I had a 100 score with more than 750 miles driven on FSD over the past 30 days until a false FCW brought me down a point this afternoon. Not a huge deal, but I'm just tired of driving extra carefully, worried about stupid things like false warnings or some jerk pulling out in front of me, making me slam on my brakes potentially killing my score. This whole thing is such a joke.
Sounds like you may not be fully understanding how the safety score works.
 

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