FSD == Boeing 737 Max 8

[ben1628]

I certainly hope not...

However, it will be years before AI is smart enough to take over human to drive a simple car. In my previous life, if there is a serious bug in the software, we may lose money... But losing life, no thanks.

The basic AP is good, TACC and lane keeping and autosteering are all doable. However, even NOA is not 100% at this stage. Sure, for another $4000, I may get HW3, but that is just hardware, it takes years to do the software right.

https://nationalpost.com/news/heres-the-terrifying-reason-the-737-max-8-is-grounded

Just to point out something that may help in your purchase.

 

[Bushcaddy]

The really scary part is that pilots spend years training to use these systems.
Imagine millions of people who can't even be bothered to read the manual.

 

[ben1628]

Too much automation. And then we just trust it blindly.

 

[duanra]

You can't really compare a transport category jet with the car. If you remove all automation from the aircraft and you fly it plainly with the cables which control the ailerons and elevator, you'll find that it is very very difficult to fly because of aerodynamic forces involved. This is done in a simulator. A car is far more lighter than the plane. However, in the future I wouldn't be surprise that drivers become to dependant on automations and loose touch with their vehicle the same way pilots unlearn how to fly bu relying too much on auto pilot.

 

[5_+JqckQttqck]

You can't really compare a transport category jet with the car. If you remove all automation from the aircraft and you fly it plainly with the cables which control the ailerons and elevator, you'll find that it is very very difficult to fly because of aerodynamic forces involved. This is done in a simulator. A car is far more lighter than the plane. However, in the future I wouldn't be surprise that drivers become to dependant on automations and loose touch with their vehicle the same way pilots unlearn how to fly bu relying too much on auto pilot.

Plenty of studies show that it's Human error that cause 99% of all vehicle accidents (aggressive behavior, fatigue, DIU, distraction, misuse of controls etc).

Automation is here to stay and it works. Look at all the Autopilot miles/kms driven and the number of accidents that involve a Tesla. The accidents all point to misuse of the technology (that's in BETA) or speeding; a human need for thrills.

When used as designed, any tool will work as intended and provide efficiencies. When you throw an idiot human into the mix, *sugar* happens. I for one can't wait for FSD to show up because I made it to work this morning fresh and stress free thanks to EAP.

 

[ben1628]

Remind me of the Total Recall movie. All cars were driven by Robots.

I do agree it's mostly human error, and that's why it is difficult right now. There are so many variables when you are driving in urban area, and you cannot trust others to follow the rules. Wait until the first fatality involved Tesla on FSD... I certainly hope that won't happen.

FSD is coming, but we don't know how long it will take. When it's ready and proven, I am in, but not until that time. Our lives are too precious.

 

[5_+JqckQttqck]

I don't see urban street FSD possible until 10 to 20 years from now where the code has been incrementally improved for that long. Although AI doesn't sleep and learns 24/7 - so who knows... maybe the Tesla NN is that good and awaiting regulator approval.

It is modeled after our vision system and brains with it's software processing and driving decisions learned by shadow mode.

Controlled highways, FSD should be fine especially if it is not aggressive to change lanes all the time and also weather dependent (hello snow storms).

 

[duanra]

I totally agree that automation is a big asset and improves safety. What I am concerned about is the over reliance on it, until of course cars become 100% autonomous which will probably be the safest way...so much for the fun of driving though...oh well...

 

[adaptabl]

Plenty of studies show that it's Human error that cause 99% of all vehicle accidents (aggressive behavior, fatigue, DIU, distraction, misuse of controls etc).

Automation is here to stay and it works. Look at all the Autopilot miles/kms driven and the number of accidents that involve a Tesla. The accidents all point to misuse of the technology (that's in BETA) or speeding; a human need for thrills.

When used as designed, any tool will work as intended and provide efficiencies. When you throw an idiot human into the mix, *sugar* happens. I for one can't wait for FSD to show up because I made it to work this morning fresh and stress free thanks to EAP.

One bad line of code or a hack and the roads will be a killing field. Driver assistance is a good idea. Driver replacement is a nightmare.

 

[bijan]

Controlled highways, FSD should be fine especially if it is not aggressive to change lanes all the time and also weather dependent (hello snow storms).

Except Montreal it seems (Probably a lot of other places too)

Every time I'm there, there's some new construction and it seems like it takes google maps 6 months or more to catch up to the new configuration. Driving into downtown on highway 20 the Tesla navigation gets real confused. Also there's a good 2-3 km stretch there with no lane markings now. So yeah not trying out FSD there

 

[duanra]

Yes, I noticed that yesterday coming back from work...the gps was totally lost on the 20 !

 

[ben1628]

One bad line of code or a hack and the roads will be a killing field. Driver assistance is a good idea. Driver replacement is a nightmare.

Haha, as I mentioned before. Apple, MSFT and all others are still fixing bugs in the operating system.

I like the phase "I have control" when you are a pilot of a plane or driver of a car, but too bad, it doesn't happen to Boeing 737 (or they don't know how to override the computer".

 

[duanra]

Sometimes it is a matter of reaching for the proper discinnect switch like fir a runaway trim. However in the heat if the moment it is easier said than done.

 

[ben1628]

I don't see urban street FSD possible until 10 to 20 years from now where the code has been incrementally improved for that long. Although AI doesn't sleep and learns 24/7 - so who knows... maybe the Tesla NN is that good and awaiting regulator approval.

It is modeled after our vision system and brains with it's software processing and driving decisions learned by shadow mode.

Controlled highways, FSD should be fine especially if it is not aggressive to change lanes all the time and also weather dependent (hello snow storms).

And hence I am not spending extra $4000 + tax on FSD now. My bet is by the end of the year, FSD will recognize the STOP sign and traffic light. It will be just like a urban TACC, but no turn on the street without human. You may not even need HW 3.0.

 

[YusufT]

One bad line of code or a hack and the roads will be a killing field. Driver assistance is a good idea. Driver replacement is a nightmare.

You watch too many movies friend. That's not how the real world works

Source: Computer Engineer

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

They are two entirely different things.

The issue with the Boeing 737-Max is they made it really difficult to take back control. They also didn't bother training pilots on how to do the steps to take back control.

From the article posted "Rather, the passenger jet may have killed 346 people for the terrifyingly modern reason that human pilots were unable to override a malfunctioning computer."

What made the entire thing much worse was the lack of sensor redundancy.

Quite frankly its a killing machine, and I'm glad it's grounded till they sort the whole thing out.

FSD is more of about the dangers of automation while the the driver retains 100% of the responsibility. The more the driver has trust in the automation the less likely he/she will be paying attention to take over. Chances are they won't have the situational awareness to handle the situation.

There is a big lesson Tesla can take from the 737-Max incidents.

That would be the need for sensor redundancy.

Tesla doesn't have much Sensor redundancy either with the rear corners cameras (to detect incoming cars) or in the front to augment the radar/camera.

It's going to be really interesting when Tesla does release unconfirmed lane changes with NoA. It's practically a guarantee that a portion of drivers will have misplaced trust in Tesla's ability to detect cars to the side so they'll just let NoA change lanes anytime it wants.

That might seem really scary, but is it?

It's no more scary than having a car that is as quick as a Tesla.

With AP you have to be responsible with how you use it or you will get into an accident.

With the speed/acceleration you have to respect physics. If you don't you'll get into an accident.

 

[Shock-On-T]

There are only 350 of these aircraft.
Tesla has a lot more data coming in, and has been running in shadow mode (observing driver and compare driver to it's own plan).

 

[ben1628]

There are only 350 of these aircraft.
Tesla has a lot more data coming in, and has been running in shadow mode (observing driver and compare driver to it's own plan).

Yes, BIG DATA computing, I knows all about it. I have no doubt that Tesla is doing a lot of number crunching behind the scene. With Machine learning Algo, the AP/FSP will get smarter.

Tesla did everything right in the beginning, though at a very high cost. Superchargers, driving data collection, Over the air update etc.

Hyundai Canada recalls 255,000 vehicles to update engine software

Look at Hyundai, have to do a massive recalls of 255,000 vehicles to do a software update. How much money will that cost. For Tesla, Done...

In my vocabulary, it is called "Pay me now, or pay me MORE later".

 

[Darthbenji]

One bad line of code or a hack and the roads will be a killing field. Driver assistance is a good idea. Driver replacement is a nightmare.

Dude, your reputation proceeds you. Even when you get it right, as you did here I think, you get thumbs down. They’re automatic now cause of all the ones you’ve given.

Anyway, I agree. One hack away from disaster.

 

[Darthbenji]

You watch too many movies friend. That's not how the real world works

Source: Computer Engineer

Uh, do we all imagine the various security breaches we hear about several times a year?