FSD City release date keeps getting pushed?

[hellchris]

Except that there's no evidence at all that a neural net is in any way equivalent to, or could be developed into, what goes on inside our heads. The technology difference is probably much greater than the difference between Babbage's hand cranked Difference Engine and a GPU.

No matter how many brass cams, gears and levers you built a Difference Engine with, you'd never get it to run a version of Mario Brothers, much less beat an expert at Go.

If the difference engine is Turing-complete, it could run Alpha Go, albeit very slowly...

 

[vamike]

If the difference engine is Turing-complete, it could run Alpha Go, albeit very slowly...

Elon says we can achieve winning a game of Go with a Turing-complete brass cam hand cranked difference engine this year

 

[raptor5244]

I am still surprised the FSD software keeps going up in price. I figured they would drop the price once they ramped up production and started selling a lot more vehicles. I wonder what the take rate is on FSD at this point. I would be interested and pay to play if I could subscribe to a specific set of FSD features but it would have to be reasonable, like $20 a month with no commitment.

At any rate we at this point we should see “Not really Full Self Driving” sometime in Juvember 2029.

 

[petabb]

Tesla is walking a very fine line here. With a lot of competitions heating up the autonomous driving, it's putting on a lot of pressure. They know this and so do their competitors. Pushing FSD back a few months would be OK but anything of a year or longer perhaps will do more damage than good.

 

[APotatoGod]

... I would be interested and pay to play if I could subscribe to a specific set of FSD features but it would have to be reasonable, like $20 a month with no commitment. ...

Something tells me it’ll never be $20 a month, as that’d be a pretty rotten deal for the early adopters who pre-paid for the first 41.6 years of use!

EDIT: I re-read and saw how you mentioned subscribing to a subset of features, which is a little more reasonable, but I’m still dubious they’d offer features that cheaply on a subscription basis.

 

[Silicon Desert]

It actually said "later this year 2019" first then it got changed to "later this year 2020". it got pushed back twice now.

yes, I remember that. Actually at this point, I will be ok if Elon tells me "You will get it before you die". Then if I get it, he will be right for once. But if I die first, then I will never know he was wrong yet again.

 

[raptor5244]

Something tells me it’ll never be $20 a month, as that’d be a pretty rotten deal for the early adopters who pre-paid for the first 41.6 years of use!

EDIT: I re-read and saw how you mentioned subscribing to a subset of features, which is a little more reasonable, but I’m still dubious they’d offer features that cheaply on a subscription basiear It is just too pricey for me

Something tells me it’ll never be $20 a month, as that’d be a pretty rotten deal for the early adopters who pre-paid for the first 41.6 years of use!

EDIT: I re-read and saw how you mentioned subscribing to a subset of features, which is a little more reasonable, but I’m still dubious they’d offer features that cheaply on a subscription basis.

I hear you. I doubt they would get to my desired price point and probably require yearly commitment. I wonder what the take rate for FSD is now. At say $25-$50 per month they would probably attract a lot more early adopters to FSD and have a nice recurring revenue stream to work with. This is the type of feature where people need to try it out. For example, I only keep cars 2-3 years so I would be paying for a feature that may never come to fruition during my time of ownership. This obviously impacts leasing customers as well. If you could just subscribe to a specific set of features then that would help.

I find Autopilot pretty good for highway use but I just can’t see the FSD feature ever being worth $5,000, $10,000, etc. if it can’t achieve true level 5 autonomy. It just seems like a lot of money to babysit the software and cameras. I find it more enjoyable to just drive myself.

 

[muffinjello]

At say $25-$50 per month they would probably attract a lot more early adopters to FSD and have a nice recurring revenue stream to work with.

If Elon's tweets are any indication, FSD subscription is supposed to be more expensive than buying it outright right now. It'll be more palatable than $10k, but I was thinking it would probably be something like $200+/mo. That would definitely put a lot of pressure on Tesla to make it worthwhile, though, because if it's not worth $200 you could just cancel it.

That being said I find it stupid that FSD is locked to the VIN...

 

[raptor5244]

If Elon's tweets are any indication, FSD subscription is supposed to be more expensive than buying it outright right now. It'll be more palatable than $10k, but I was thinking it would probably be something like $200+/mo. That would definitely put a lot of pressure on Tesla to make it worthwhile, though, because if it's not worth $200 you could just cancel it.

That being said I find it stupid that FSD is locked to the VIN...

Agreed, charging $10k for a feature like this that is still under development and not allowing you to take it with you to the next vehicle if you keep it in the family and get another Tesla is pretty crazy as well. That was another reason why I couldn’t purchase FSD. I tend to only keep my cars 2-3 years so I would be trading in a feature worth pennies on the dollar. $200 subscription is way too much in my opinion. IMO, It has to be in that $20-$30 range. Now if the software ever reached a point where it is truly offering full self driving then they can raise the subscription price but I think we all know that true FSD is not a reality for quite some time regardless of how Tesla markets the feature.