FSD Letter - What does it include?

[R1Bill]

The current Autopilot in our cars does use NN for vision, but not for driving rules.

Do you have 3.0 hardware? It would be really interesting to see what the difference is. Because, with 2.0, it makes frequent mistakes. either miss-identifying objects or missing them entirely. It rarely identifies people or motorcycles and doesn't see cross traffic or stationary objects at all. I've never seen it identify a bicycle.

 

[diplomat33]

Do you have 3.0 hardware? It would be really interesting to see what the difference is. Because, with 2.0, it makes frequent mistakes. either miss-identifying objects or missing them entirely. It rarely identifies people or motorcycles and doesn't see cross traffic or stationary objects at all. I've never seen it identify a bicycle.

No. I have 2.5 hardware.

 

[EVNow]

Yes I watched it. All of it. It was way cool! Elon looked really pastly and nervous but his engineers were quite enthusiastic and convincing.

But, those specs are still not in black and white and associated by Tesla with the FSD upgrade. All that is associated with the upgrade by Tesla are those two lines previously quoted. It's like they don't quite know what they're going to do and definitely don't want to make any commitments.

We have been trying to figure out what Tesla means by "feature complete" - you can look at my thread in the investor section. I think we are quite close to what they are planning to do in the short term (City NOA). If that doesn't interest you much and you think is not worth $3k, then you may be disappointed. We (or even Tesla, probably) have no way of knowing when they will get to level 4 automation.

It rarely identifies people or motorcycles and doesn't see cross traffic or stationary objects at all. I've never seen it identify a bicycle.

That is interesting. With my 2.5 (Model 3) - I rarely see it miss motorcycles or bicycles or people. Cross traffic is not yet in the production version (only in their dev version).

BTW, you should checkout the videos after the production version was made to work like dev version by @verygreen. That gives you an idea of what they are actually identifying and what is likely coming up.​

 

[R1Bill]

No. I have 2.5 hardware.

So, with 2.5, are your results better than mine?

 

[diplomat33]

So, with 2.5, are your results better than mine?

Yes, it sounds like mine is a bit better. It might miss pedestrians occasionally but it does not miss cars, trucks and motorcycles. Cross traffic is not yet implemented, although I do sometimes see a car crossing in front of me at an intersection on my driver display screen.

But that is why we need the AP3 (FSD) computer upgrade. We need a better computer designed to handle the NN for FSD. The current AP2 and AP2.5 computers can't handle the NN needed for FSD. That is why they are so limited. They will never do FSD.

 

[davecolene0606]

FSD upgrade includes the same capabilities that ordering it includes:

Full Self-Driving Capability

• Navigate on Autopilot: automatic driving from highway on-ramp to off-ramp including interchanges and overtaking slower cars.
• Auto Lane Change: automatic lane changes while driving on the highway.
• Autopark: both parallel and perpendicular spaces.
• Summon: your parked car will come find you anywhere in a parking lot. Really.

Coming later this year:

• Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs.
• Automatic driving on city streets.

Includes the Full Self Driving Computer

Full Self-Driving Capability is available for purchase post-delivery, prices are likely to increase over time with new feature releases

The currently enabled features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous. The activation and use of these features are dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval, which may take longer in some jurisdictions. As these self-driving features evolve, your car will be continuously upgraded through over-the-air software updates.

IMHO $3K is an awesome deal as on 8/12 FSD is scheduled to increase in cost by $1k and as capability is added the price will continue to climb.

Fire Away!

 

[R1Bill]

It really is an awesome deal. I see it as an especially awesome deal for older drivers who can suddenly get their freedom back. Even those that are beginning to have issues driving at night. Wow, to think of how this will improve their lives!

 

[Octo]

It really is an awesome deal. I see it as an especially awesome deal for older drivers who can suddenly get their freedom back. Even those that are beginning to have issues driving at night. Wow, to think of how this will improve their lives!

It’s even better for pre-K children. They can now take their parents Tesla without supervision and invite their friends to all drive over to their friends in the next town for a slumber party. All without their parents!

What a deal for $3000 !!!!!!!

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Full Self-Driving Capability

Coming later this year:

• Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs.
• Automatic driving on city streets.

Includes the Full Self Driving Computer

The current features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous. The future use of these features without supervision is dependent of achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers....

Just fixing this: The above is what you will (eventually) get for $3k. All the other listed features you mentioned are already included in EAP. In addition, the actual order page does not mention a timeline - it just says "the future" (I left that part in above - but your quote is from the FSD new vehicle order page).

 

[EVNow]

Agreed. But Autopilot at this point is not using any NN as far as this highly experienced automation engineer can tell. And if there is any NN, it's far down in the decision tree.

Two things - the input is from NN (identification with probability that can change over time).

Second, there is some NN that is being used in terms of intent of other actors in the scene. Cut-ins was given as an example (we don't know if they do this for other things).

 

[EVNow]

It really is an awesome deal. I see it as an especially awesome deal for older drivers who can suddenly get their freedom back. Even those that are beginning to have issues driving at night. Wow, to think of how this will improve their lives!

Well, a real robotaxi, Level 4/5 for $3k is obviously worth it. I mean - it is probably worth $100k if & when it is actually possible.

The question is - given the probability and timeline involved - is $3k worth it now.

That is why I take the view that $3k should be viewed as advance payment for what is immediately (as in next 1 year) deliverable. If Level 4 comes in the future, its just an extra. If you pay $3k assuming Level 4, you may be disappointed if it doesn't happen in the next 2 years (as is likely).

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

If you pay $3k assuming Level 4, you may be disappointed if it doesn't happen in the next 2 years (as is likely).

Furthermore, if for some reason the HW3 plus sensor suite is never capable of L3/L4/L5, there is no obligation for Tesla to compensate you for it, since with FSD they are selling an L2 system and any higher levels are dependent on the system being able to achieve a high enough reliability for Telsa's liking (far in excess of human drivers).

There's no reason they can't do FSD 2.0 at some point with even better radar, cameras, hardware, etc., which enable L3/L4/L5, and there's no reason that would need to be provided to people buying today, as long as the described L2 features have been delivered in city/highway/parking lots to the people who are buying today. And of course they will do something like FSD 2.0 in the future - the sensor hardware is going to get a lot better!

This is my interpretation from the other thread

 

[Az_Rael]

Furthermore, if for some reason the HW3 plus sensor suite is never capable of L3/L4/L5, there is no obligation for Tesla to compensate you for it, since with FSD they are selling an L2 system

It is an interesting question as to what Tesla would be obligated for the folks who bought FSD under the old language. My package is supposed to drive to my destination without ANY input from me in the drivers seat.

I kinda doubt they will achieve that, and I fully expect a bunch of hand waving by Tesla when it comes to us older FSD buyers, but I would certainly think that implies at least no nags.

You are right about what they are selling today for FSD. It is solid Level 2.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

You are right about what they are selling today for FSD. It is solid Level 2.

Yes, that is why I included the "buying today" bit! Do you happen to know exactly when the FSD language changed, just for the sake of people viewing the thread to whom it may be relevant? I'm sure this has been covered elsewhere, but don't want to poke around for it.

 

[Octo]

I mean - it is probably worth $100k if & when it is actually possible.

I think that is a fallacy. The HW is not expensive and the knowhow will be licensed, copied, reverse engineered etc.

It would be worth maybe that much or more today but once this goes into every Hyundai and BYD - and it will - this is going to be a <$1000 option eventually.

 

[willow_hiller]

The HW is not expensive and the knowhow will be licensed, copied, reverse engineered etc.

That's like saying: "Web servers are not expensive, Google's search engine will be reverse engineered."

Sure, it's technically true, but the difference between Google and most of their competitors are petabytes and petabytes of data. Tesla is the same, that training data cannot be reverse engineered and it will make the difference between a safe autonomous drive and a cheap knockoff.

 

[Octo]

That's like saying: "Web servers are not expensive, Google's search engine will be reverse engineered."

Sure, it's technically true, but the difference between Google and most of their competitors are petabytes and petabytes of data. Tesla is the same, that training data cannot be reverse engineered and it will make the difference between a safe autonomous drive and a cheap knockoff.

No, it’s not equivalent.

It’s like saying Samsung will compete with Apple because Google practically gives away Android.

Oh, who owns Waymo BTW? LOL

 

[willow_hiller]

My point is that Tesla has a relative monopoly on real world training data for an autonomous vehicle neural network. They're the only company in the world that has that many camera-equipped vehicles on the road, connecting to wifi every night, and sending them invaluable training data. Millions and millions of hours of real driving data. If every other autonomous vehicle company combined all of their training data right now, it wouldn't be a fraction of what Tesla gathers per day. The competition is falling further and further behind, to the point that Tesla will be able to act as a monopoly in this space. Monopolies can set whatever prices the market will bear.

 

[Az_Rael]

Yes, that is why I included the "buying today" bit! Do you happen to know exactly when the FSD language changed, just for the sake of people viewing the thread to whom it may be relevant? I'm sure this has been covered elsewhere, but don't want to poke around for it.

Well, FSD was removed as an option from the website in October 2018. Not sure what the wording looked like just prior to it’s removal. In the gap you had to order via phone, so who knows what people were sold verbally then. It came back as the “new” FSD package in Feb 2019 right before the fire sale. The new package is what they advertise today.

I think there have been wording changes if you go all the way back to Oct 2016, (4 cameras for EAP and 8 for FSD for example), but I don’t know when those changed. I know the 4/8 camera verbiage existed on the Model S order page when I bought my 3 in December 2017, because I used it as a reference for what the package might include since the 3 order page was pretty thin back then. That wording stayed until after they activated all cameras for everyone, then they removed it. (Yes, I am salty about that one).

 

[EVNow]

I think that is a fallacy. The HW is not expensive and the knowhow will be licensed, copied, reverse engineered etc.

It would be worth maybe that much or more today but once this goes into every Hyundai and BYD - and it will - this is going to be a <$1000 option eventually.

Depends on your timeline.

FSD - if it comes from Tesla - won't be available in every Hyundai and BYD for a long time. It will be along time before it can be "reverse engineered". Tesla won't license it. They will run their Tesla Network and mint Billions.