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FSD - Level 2

Dan D.

Member
Dec 7, 2020
236
203
Vancouver, BC
This one line from the Tesla / California DMV emails needs to be fully explained.

As such, a final release of City Streets will continue to be an SAE Level 2, advanced driver-assistance feature
Eric C. Williams, Associate General Counsel, Regulatory (Tesla)
Dec. 14, 2020

All the promises from Tesla. The PR videos and talks from Elon. So many things have been said about what is going to happen and what the cars will do. Driving fully from your house to work, across the country, etc. All that comes down to this. Level 2.

That is all they are prepared to give us. That is what they consider is the end point to satisfy the requirements of FSD. Yes, they may/will develop further, but they could stop here. Level 2.

I'm sure they will continue to throw out promises and expectations. At this point they have not even started on Level 3 development in the legal sense in California. They may realize they cannot get Level 3+. Who knows? They may come up with a new HW 4 car, or acquire technology from a company that achieved Level 3+ and then add that hardware to the new car models. But it seems they will be done with everyone who bought FSD by giving them.. Level 2

That's what it looks like to me. They seem to have draw the line in the sand. Either string out FSD Beta forever, or just stop at Level 2 - with the obligatory "it's going to be Level 3+ very soon". Nobody has called their bluff, and at this point I think they have laid their cards down. That's their end point.
 

Tam

Well-Known Member
Nov 25, 2012
8,416
7,254
Visalia, CA
...Either string out FSD Beta forever, or just stop at Level 2 - with the obligatory "it's going to be Level 3+ very soon"...

The goal, vision, hope can be different than what the legal language is written for a consumer to buy.

I don't think Tesla will stop at L2. It will try its best to move to L3 and beyond.

By reading the legal language on an ordering page with a price attached to it, what consumers bought is not a guarantee. What it has always said that for your money, you might get what you want but there is no guarantee.

Tesla has always listed the conditions for Tesla to fulfill the vision but if those conditions are not met, then the consumers won't get robotaxi ever.
 
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Tam

Well-Known Member
Nov 25, 2012
8,416
7,254
Visalia, CA
Let's do a review on Tesla's order page when a consumer clicks on Autopilot/Enhanced Autopilot/FSD:

"...The activation and use of these features are dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval, which may take longer in some jurisdictions..."

The conditions to get what you paid are:

1) reliability
2) regulatory approval
3) "may take longer"

1) reliability: Currently, it gives us a great animation of smart summon on a parking lot. In reality, it's not reliable. As long people still get their tire rims nicked by the curbs, their cars got minor accidents on the parking lot after billions of miles of experience then it is still not reliable enough. If it is still not reliable enough, then the condition of reliability is not met. The consumers just paid for a current unmet or unsuccessful condition.

2) regulatory approval: That's self-explanatory. Some governments allow it. If not, then consumers just paid for a current unmet or unsuccessful condition.

3) "may take longer": That's another way to say infinity. As long as infinity is still alive, it might take until the end of the infinity to get what you paid for.

Tesla's system still got involved in accidents from slow speed scratches all the way to high-speed fatal accidents. As long as a driver is still required to make sure there are no mishaps, that's a maximum of L2 or lower.

That's where we are right now: L2.

Will we ever get to the next level, L3? Sure as soon as we can solve those 3 issues above: Reliability/Competency, Regulatory Approval, and the Infinity Timeline.
 

shrineofchance

she/her, they/them
Feb 10, 2021
80
88
Canada
It's very simple.

FSD Beta is currently Level 2 and will be Level 2 for a while.

The intention is to eventually make it Level 4 or Level 5.

Period.

"Final release" just means the version of the software that will be released to customers. Not the final version of the software to ever be developed.
 

mspisars

Active Member
May 23, 2014
2,062
1,389
Charlotte, NC
This one line from the Tesla / California DMV emails needs to be fully explained.
Again, lets look at what Tesla tells us about FSD - Autopilot
The future use of these features without supervision is dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval, which may take longer in some jurisdictions. As these self-driving capabilities are introduced, your car will be continuously upgraded through over-the-air software updates.

That wording has been there since the update post Autonomy Day in April 2019...
 

diplomat33

Well-Known Member
Aug 3, 2017
6,984
7,993
Terre Haute, IN USA
It's very simple.

FSD Beta is currently Level 2 and will be Level 2 for a while.

The intention is to eventually make it Level 4 or Level 5.

Period.

"Final release" just means the version of the software that will be released to customers. Not the final version of the software to ever be developed.

Yeah we know that. It's just that the marketing for FSD was misleading because Tesla made it sound like FSD would be L5 relatively soon. Heck, the CEO is saying that L5 will happen this year. Yet, now we see that FSD will be L2 for awhile and L5 is just what Tesla hopes FSD will eventually become someday. For people who purchased FSD in 2016 when Tesla was describing it as essentially L4/L5 and just needing some validation and regulatory approval, it is understandable why they would be pissed.
 

mspisars

Active Member
May 23, 2014
2,062
1,389
Charlotte, NC
It's just that the marketing for FSD was misleading because Tesla made it sound like FSD would be L5 relatively soon.
False, the marketing has been the same from 2016 to 2019 @ Autonomy Day and post Autonomy Day to today.

Just because you want ignore the official definition from Tesla website and their claims does not change the fact that it is there for you and everyone else.
 

diplomat33

Well-Known Member
Aug 3, 2017
6,984
7,993
Terre Haute, IN USA
Again, lets look at what Tesla tells us about FSD - Autopilot


That wording has been there since the update post Autonomy Day in April 2019...

False, the marketing has been the same from 2016 to 2019 @ Autonomy Day and post Autonomy Day to today.

Just because you want ignore the official definition from Tesla website and their claims does not change the fact that it is there for you and everyone else.

I am not ignoring the official definition. But it is also true that Tesla is good at hyping up FSD when they want to. In 2016, Tesla described FSD as "get in your car and it will drive you anywhere". Elon has repeatedly said that our cars would be robotaxis, we could sleep in the back seat while it drives, we could summon cross country, etc... In 2019, Elon said we would all get the latest FSD software and be able to do our own FSD cross country drive. During Autonomy Day, Elon said that Tesla would deploy robotaxis in 2020. Now, he is saying FSD will be L5 this year. But yes, Tesla also includes a well worded disclaimer in the official definition to protect themselves against missed deadlines.

Basically, Tesla is selling the promise of L5. "FSD" is not actually FSD and will require driver supervision. But they also hype up FSD when they want to boost sales.
 

mspisars

Active Member
May 23, 2014
2,062
1,389
Charlotte, NC
In 2016, Tesla described FSD as "get in your car and it will drive you anywhere"
That description is still there today (except for "in almost all circumstances"), the full definition gives context what's required to get there.
1616681094165.png

Tesla is selling the promise of L5. "FSD" is not actually FSD and will require driver supervision.
Again, if you ignored it in 2016 and you ignore it in 2021, there is not much more anyone can do (well except whine "but Elon said" ad nauseam), but the FSD description has been pretty clear about the rollout process (i.e. these features, future use, without supervision, etc)
 
Last edited:

diplomat33

Well-Known Member
Aug 3, 2017
6,984
7,993
Terre Haute, IN USA
That description is still there today (except for "in almost all circumstances"), the full definition gives context what's required to get there.
View attachment 647809

Again, if you ignored it in 2016 and you ignore it in 2021, there is not much more anyone can do, but the FSD description has been pretty clear about the rollout process (i.e. these features, future use, without supervision, etc)

Yes, Tesla has been very clear that the features would roll out gradually and would require driver supervision. Nobody is denying that. But you are conveniently ignoring all the times when Elon has hyped up FSD and made it sound like L5 was right around the corner.
 

diplomat33

Well-Known Member
Aug 3, 2017
6,984
7,993
Terre Haute, IN USA
You are conveniently ignoring official Tesla marketing documentation for tweets from Elon, because it fits your narrative.

I cannot buy a feature Elon tweets about, but I can buy FSD Capability as defined by Autopilot !

No, I am not ignoring official Tesla marketing. I just said in my previous post that Tesla has been clear that FSD features would roll out with driver supervision. But I am looking at the entire picture, "Tesla marketing" + "Elon tweets". Elon's tweets do count as part of Tesla's marketing since he is the CEO. You are choosing to only look at the Tesla marketing that suits your narrative.
 

mspisars

Active Member
May 23, 2014
2,062
1,389
Charlotte, NC
You are choosing to only look at the Tesla marketing that suits your narrative.
False!
I chose to look at what legally I can actually hold Tesla to. When I bought FSD I needed to know exactly what I was buying and that definition was pretty clear.
There is nothing on my purchase agreement with Tesla that says "please see Elon tweets and cherry pick the ones you like"!
 

shrineofchance

she/her, they/them
Feb 10, 2021
80
88
Canada
Yeah we know that. It's just that the marketing for FSD was misleading because Tesla made it sound like FSD would be L5 relatively soon. Heck, the CEO is saying that L5 will happen this year. Yet, now we see that FSD will be L2 for awhile and L5 is just what Tesla hopes FSD will eventually become someday. For people who purchased FSD in 2016 when Tesla was describing it as essentially L4/L5 and just needing some validation and regulatory approval, it is understandable why they would be pissed.
Tesla's communiqués with the California DMV are absolutely unrelated and irrelevant to any critique you want to make about how Elon's publicly stated predictions purportedly mismatch with FSD progress so far. Conflating these two things is logically unsound.

Anyone reading the DMV emails who thinks they imply anything new and significant for the future prospects of the FSD software is simply mistaken.

If you think the California DMV emails are some kind of meaningful revelation, well, you simply have the wrong information.
 

diplomat33

Well-Known Member
Aug 3, 2017
6,984
7,993
Terre Haute, IN USA
Tesla's communiqués with the California DMV are absolutely unrelated and irrelevant to any critique you want to make about how Elon's publicly stated predictions purportedly mismatch with FSD progress so far. Conflating these two things is logically unsound.

Anyone reading the DMV emails who thinks they imply anything new and significant for the future prospects of the FSD software is simply mistaken.

If you think the California DMV emails are some kind of meaningful revelation, well, you simply have the wrong information.

Yes, the DMV emails are consistent with Tesla saying that FSD would roll out as L2 and require driver supervision at first. We all know that FSD Beta will roll out as L2 and will require driver supervision when it goes wide to the fleet. That's not the issue.

The question is when will FSD go from L2 to L5? Elon has said that FSD will reach L5 this year. Do you read the DMV emails as saying that FSD will reach L5 later this year? Or are the emails saying that Tesla will not achieve L5 this year as Elon has said but will be L2 for years to come?
 
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shrineofchance

she/her, they/them
Feb 10, 2021
80
88
Canada
Here's just one example of many where Elon clearly stated FSD would first be released as a Level 2 product:


Another example:

"I think where we're very clear with the you know when you when you buy the car what what it's meant by full self driving it means its feature complete, but feature complete requiring supervision and then as as we get more - we really need billions of miles if not maybe 10 billion sort of miles or kilometers on that order collectively from the fleet than [inaudible] in our opinion probably at that point supervision is not required but that will still be up to regulators to agree. So we're just very quickly there's really three steps this being feature complete proportion self driving but requiring supervision, feature complete but not requiring supervision, and feature complete not requiring supervision and regulators agree."

I recall him repeating the same spiel several other times as well. I believe he said it again on Autonomy Day. And on at least one quarterly earnings call.
 
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