FSD may require a hardware upgrade...

[bob_p]

From Tesla's October 19 announcement:

"We are excited to announce that, as of today, all Tesla vehicles produced in our factory – including Model 3 – will have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver."

From the current Model S overview web page:

"All Tesla vehicles produced in our factory, including Model 3, have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver."

From Tesla's autopilot web page:

"All Tesla vehicles produced in our factory, including Model 3, have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver."

"Build upon Enhanced Autopilot and order Full Self-Driving Capability on your Tesla. This doubles the number of active cameras from four to eight, enabling full self-driving in almost all circumstances, at what we believe will be a probability of safety at least twice as good as the average human driver. The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat. For Superchargers that have automatic charge connection enabled, you will not even need to plug in your vehicle."

Based on the statements on Tesla's website, we ordered an S 100D, including purchase of the FSD option - because Tesla had pretty clearly stated the car we are purchasing has hardware sufficient to support FSD, which we get for the additional $3K for FSD included in our order.

At this week's World Government Summit, Musk stated:

“Tesla cars that are made today have the sensor system that is necessary for full autonomy, and we think probably enough computer power to be safer than a person. So, mostly it’s just a question of uploading the software. And if it turns out that the computer power, that more computer power is needed, we can easily upgrade the computer.”

We've ordered the S 100D with FSD, based on the statements on Tesla's website that the hardware would be capable of FSD. And before we pay for our car (that completed production yesterday), Tesla (Musk) has stated that a hardware upgrade may now be required to get FSD working - so Tesla is aware that in order to fulfill their promise that the hardware will support FSD, a processor upgrade may be required.

If we've made a purchase based on the claims on Tesla's website - that the car has hardware sufficient to support FSD, and Tesla is already aware that the processor may not be adequate (before we've purchased our car), isn't it reasonable to assume that Tesla will correct that defect through a free processor upgrade, like any other known defect in the car?

 

[electracity]

FSD is primarily a software problem. Musk is somewhat obscuring the problem by always referring to safety as the important criteria. But there are many practical problems. A FSD Tesla approaches a construction zone with a human waving is arms over his head. What is the human doing? What does the car do? "Neural networks" don't solve this problem. Driving millions of miles doesn't solve this problem.

There might be enough compute power in the current cars to run a real AI. The problem is that the type of AI need to handle the edge cases doesn't exist.

 

[calisnow]

@electracity - it doesn't?

 

[Vitold]

-

FSD is primarily a software problem. Musk is somewhat obscuring the problem by always referring to safety as the important criteria. But there are many practical problems. A FSD Tesla approaches a construction zone with a human waving is arms over his head. What is the human doing? What does the car do? "Neural networks" don't solve this problem. Driving millions of miles doesn't solve this problem.

There might be enough compute power in the current cars to run a real AI. The problem is that the type of AI need to handle the edge cases doesn't exist.

Software is not complete nor optimized plus hardware is making huge progress and it's of little use to install processing power that may or may not be enough in a year or so.

Therefore it would be unwise not to upgrade in the future. I think Nvidia's hardware is just a stop gap and is is very likely that Tesla is working on their own silicone (I would guess that AMD will make manufacture it per Tesla spec, similar to xbox or ps4). I would bet that all AP2.0 cars will get hardware upgrade once Tesla MPU is out.

 

[Max*]

FSD is primarily a software problem. Musk is somewhat obscuring the problem by always referring to safety as the important criteria. But there are many practical problems. A FSD Tesla approaches a construction zone with a human waving is arms over his head. What is the human doing? What does the car do? "Neural networks" don't solve this problem. Driving millions of miles doesn't solve this problem.

There might be enough compute power in the current cars to run a real AI. The problem is that the type of AI need to handle the edge cases doesn't exist.

I agree and disagree at the same time. The type of AI needed to handle the edge cases doesn't exist today. But it will in the near future.

You can load up the system with edge cases, the problem with that is also false alarms. You don't want an edge case triggered while you're going 75mph down the highway. And the more edge cases you have, the more likely you are to have a false alarm.

It will require a lot of training, retraining and a lot of testing before it goes live. The other thing they can do is to go live with FSD in limited environments. And then worry about edge cases.

 

[S100D]

HW2 just got a firmware update for autosteer on local roads. The differentiation is happening already folks.....

If you compare HW 2.0 EAP differentiation to the last release, it is improving. If you compare it to AP 1.0 hardware, AP 1.0 cars had AP on local streets that worked reliably over a year ago. HW 2.0 cars have a long way to go to have the same functionality like AP 1.0 cars.

 

[lunitiks]

I don't get it. FSD "features"? Isn't FSD per definition the whole shabang?

"Features", like smart summon, cute autosteering in cities etc. being introduced baby steps - yes that is "features".

But FULL SELF DRIVING?

Sounds more like the end game, the goal, the state in which the car has realized its full potential.

 

[sdorn]

I don't get it. FSD "features"? Isn't FSD per definition the whole shabang?

"Features", like smart summon, cute autosteering in cities etc. being introduced baby steps - yes that is "features".

But FULL SELF DRIVING?

Just like Enhanced Auto Pilot is made up of a suite of features, Full Self Driving is as well. We don't have all EAP features yet and we don't have any FSD features, but no one expects Tesla to flip a switch one day and have FSD become fully functional all at once. It will get released piece by piece just like EAP.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

I don't get it. FSD "features"? Isn't FSD per definition the whole shabang?

"Features", like smart summon, cute autosteering in cities etc. being introduced baby steps - yes that is "features".

But FULL SELF DRIVING?

Sounds more like the end game, the goal, the state in which the car has realized its full potential.

I imagine a feature could be the display of a stop sign or traffic lights on the IC. Then you can see there's some FSD functionality even if the car can't fully drive itself. That feature wouldn't show up on cars without FSD.

 

[electracity]

If you compare HW 2.0 EAP differentiation to the last release, it is improving. If you compare it to AP 1.0 hardware, AP 1.0 cars had AP on local streets that worked reliably over a year ago. HW 2.0 cars have a long way to go to have the same functionality like AP 1.0 cars.

The hardware in the cars today will no doubt become extremely useful and interesting. If the Model 3 can we made with good enough quality and quality, I think it is the next iphone.

But FSD is no licensed human driver required. Cars that can usually operate without a driver will likely need a human to intervene in edge cases. That many be an occupant of a car, or a remote person at a call center. These types of cars are not FSD.

Is the guy on the road waving his hands above is head 1) Cold and trying to warm up, or 2) Waving to a friend, or 3) Trying to get your attention to tell you to stop. or 4) Trying to get your attention to tell you you have a cool car or 5) Just a crazy person. Humans solve these problems quickly with mostly subconscious by largely unknown processes. Neural nets don't solve this sort of ambiguity. Musk's approach, essentially that the car doesn't have to understand, will not be socially acceptable. I guess he can then blame the lack of approval for his cars on regulators.

Google has been working these problems for years. Tesla has not.

 

[lunitiks]

Just like Enhanced Auto Pilot is made up of a suite of features, Full Self Driving is as well. We don't have all EAP features yet and we don't have any FSD features, but no one expects Tesla to flip a switch one day and have FSD become fully functional all at once. It will get released piece by piece just like EAP.

So you're saying that there will be "FSD features" introduced gradually, that is not also an "EAP feature"?

That in the coming year, Tesla will send some features to FSD-enabled cars, that wont get sent to EAP-cars?

I dont think so. I think all AP2-cars will get the same feature updates, until Tesla has to let the FSD-buyers get the final, end update(s) that makes the car "FSD"

 

[croman]

So you're saying that there will be "FSD features" introduced gradually, that is not also an "EAP feature"?

That in the coming year, Tesla will send some features to FSD-enabled cars, that wont get sent to EAP-cars?

I dont think so. I think all AP2-cars will get the same feature updates, until Tesla has to let the FSD-buyers get the final, end update(s) that makes the car "FSD"

Not what Elon has tweeted. He said FSD will "begin to differentiate" from EAP in 3-6 months (Elon time). FSD will be a gradual rollout.

 

[Max*]

Not what Elon has tweeted. He said FSD will "begin to differentiate" from EAP in 3-6 months (Elon time). FSD will be a gradual rollout.

Which makes sense. FSD is compromised of thousands of moving parts, that all need to interact well together. Gradually rolling out one/a few moving parts at a time lets Tesla evaluate performance on thousands of cars.

 

[AmpedRealtor]

If we've made a purchase based on the claims on Tesla's website - that the car has hardware sufficient to support FSD, and Tesla is already aware that the processor may not be adequate (before we've purchased our car), isn't it reasonable to assume that Tesla will correct that defect through a free processor upgrade, like any other known defect in the car?

Playing devil's advocate for a moment, Tesla was aware that AP1 couldn't do some of the things Tesla promised on its web site at the time it was launched. That didn't prevent Tesla from updating the vehicle's hardware to verison 2 and leaving first-generation AP owners out in the cold with no way to upgrade outside of buying a new car. Food for thought.

 

[croman]

Here's the electrek article for reference which contains Elon's tweet response.

Tesla to transition from ‘Enhanced Autopilot’ to ‘Fully Self-Driving’ as soon as ‘3 to 6 months’, says Elon Musk

 

[croman]

Playing devil's advocate for a moment, Tesla was aware that AP1 couldn't do some of the things Tesla promised on its web site at the time it was launched. That didn't prevent Tesla from updating the vehicle's hardware to verison 2 and leaving first-generation AP owners out in the cold with no way to upgrade outside of buying a new car. Food for thought.

The reason was AP1 hw was too difficult and costly to upgrade. Elon has already said its easy to upgrade HW2's processors, so that's the key difference.

 

[AmpedRealtor]

The reason was AP1 hw was too difficult and costly to upgrade. Elon has already said its easy to upgrade HW2's processors, so that's the key difference.

Elon has said a lot of things, many which have not come true. Anyone here can make you a list. My point is that nobody should expect anything with regard to future updates, and what is stated on the marketing page does not constitute a legal contract. That's why I'm telling folks not to pre-pay for a feature that doesn't exist and cannot be tested prior to purchase. By doing so, you are gambling and may lose.

In this case the upgrade might be possible, and if it is and Tesla does it for everyone, then great. I'm just saying people should not buy with any sort of expectation, that is a formula for disappointment.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I don't get it. FSD "features"? Isn't FSD per definition the whole shabang?

"Features", like smart summon, cute autosteering in cities etc. being introduced baby steps - yes that is "features".

But FULL SELF DRIVING?

Sounds more like the end game, the goal, the state in which the car has realized its full potential.

Not what Elon has tweeted. He said FSD will "begin to differentiate" from EAP in 3-6 months (Elon time). FSD will be a gradual rollout.

There are very specific features promised on the order page and the disclaimer is clear that not all of them will be rolled out at once (some may not even be rolled out at all depending on "software validation" and "regulatory approval").

I summarized here, but will repeat:
"able to drive short/long trips with no action by the driver, able to connect to superchargers with automatic charge connection, auto navigate, park seek mode, phone summon"
FSD may require a hardware upgrade...

 

[lunitiks]

I'm not saying that Tesla wont introduce features gradually!!!!

On the contrary, I'm saying they WILL be introduced gradually.

But why the heck would Tesla, while this is happening, start sending some features to some cars, and some features to other cars - with the same HARD ware?

No way. You'll all get the same features. Exactly the same. Then, in "3-6 months" (Tesla time, so 36 months), FSD-cars will keep receiving autonomous updates while EAP cars wont.

But hey. By then we'll have AP3. [Throwing molotov cocktails]

 

[MorrisonHiker]

But why the heck would Tesla, while this is happening, start sending some features to some cars, and some features to other cars - with the same HARD ware?

No way. You'll all get the same features. Exactly the same. Then, in "3-6 months" (Tesla time, so 36 months), FSD-cars will keep receiving autonomous updates while EAP cars wont.

I would expect EAP features to be sent to those who ordered EAP and FSD features to be sent to those who ordered FSD. I wouldn't expect to see FSD features on a car that only has EAP.