FSD - monthly subscription

[DavidES]

I know Elon mentioned FSD monthly service in January this year, is coming in the next couple months. I have done general questions and ideas.
1. Will it have levels perhaps?
Level 1: Complete FSD - all options
Level 2: partial FSD - lane change, Navigate on Autopilot, etc.
2. What will it cost?
I think it needs to be based on if you lease or buy, and on the length
I realize the monthly service may be higher than the cost divided by the years of payments, but it’s a start.
If you have a 4 year loan, $10k is $208/mo, 5 years is $167/mo
For a lease, a monthly service makes much more sense, and on a 3 yr lease, it works out to $278/mo.
A. What will the levels cost?
B. If it were closer to $150/mo for complete FSD, then maybe
C. If partial FSD was $100/mo, maybe
D. I purchased it on my last model S, and it never amounted to much, so I consider it no longer economic as I don’t keep cars mire than 4 years normally.

 

[RMBW74]

Tesla has an opportunity for an additional revenue stream. Most of the people I know with Tesla’s don’t have FSD currently. What I’d love is if they offered a FSD subscription that also included x amount of supercharger miles per year or month.

 

[Tam]

...1. Will it have levels perhaps?...

There are:

1) Plain included-for-no-extra-charge Autopilot: Standard base option
2) Enhanced Autopilot: Available for purchase in unpredictable promotional periods.
3) FSD.

I doubt monthly subscription would have different levels.

...2. What will it cost?...

Tesla would want to make a profit either in a one-time $10,000 or in the divided monthly subscription.

I think the total subscription price would be less if you hold your car for a short time like 1, 2, or 3 years but if you plan to hold your car for a long time, it will be much higher than $10,000 total.

 

[DaveG_NJ]

Who knows? Without tiered pricing, I don't think we'll see it before FSD (city streets) is released to the public (which means not soon). If they released what it is available now (NoA and Summon), that could be a lower tier and made immediately available for a lower price, then FSD as a top tier upgrade later on.

If they keep it simple (buy once or subscribe monthly to FSD), it's going to be a long wait for the subscription model. No one is going to pay monthly for something that isn't available.

 

[Rshephorse]

I would love to try it for a month... that's money Tesla will get from me earlier than if I have to pony up a full 10K

 

[MP3Mike]

2. What will it cost?
I think it needs to be based on if you lease or buy, and on the length

Why would the subscription price be based on if you buy/lease a vehicle or the term of your lease/loan? The whole point of the subscription is to remove that whole portion of things, and that this feature costs $x/month.

But figure that the FSD subscription will cost more than FSD currently adds to a lease/loan. So my guess is that it will be around $250/month. (Maybe they will offer EAP for $125/month? But I'm not sure that they will.)

 

[FredMertz]

With a subscription available, why would anyone buy FSD outright unless the pre-delivery price was materially cheaper than post-delivery?

 

[stopcrazypp]

With a subscription available, why would anyone buy FSD outright unless the pre-delivery price was materially cheaper than post-delivery?

It was for a while $8000 pre-delivery and $10000 post-delivery.

The monthly price they will likely set so that it would cost more over the expected lifetime/ownership of the car vs buying outright.

 

[DavidES]

I read where the percentage of buyers getting FSD has dropped dramatically, so I do think Tesla will come out with a subscription service prior to regulatory approval, as it’s an opportunity for lost revenue. Unless as a buyer you hold on to a car for many years, I believe the price of FSD is not worth it. I trade every couple of years, so for me $3k - $5k a year us nuts for FSD.

 

[jeremymc7]

The bigger question is when will the beta FSD make it out to the public? It's already at a level that's "good-enough" or should I say "comparable" in terms of accuracy with what you you get now on EAP. Until the beta is in public release we're not going to see the subscription option. We had coming by end of year back in 2020. Now we're nearly two months into 2021 and it still seems like it's going to be at least 6 more months. At least expand the number of beta users and grow the testing pool as it get's more refined.

 

[FredMertz]

I believe the rapid increase from 6k to 7k to 10k was designed solely to make a subscription price that would have seemed out of line 1 year ago appear reasonable.

 

[jeremymc7]

With the Bolt EV adding SuperCruise and eventually UltraCruise (with street driving) at pretty competitive pricing it’ll be interesting to see how things could play out over the next 1-3 years.

 

[JHCCAZ]

For a lease, a monthly service makes much more sense, and on a 3 yr lease, it works out to $278/mo.

This is not the case. You simply divided $10k/36 months. But in a lease, you only pay for the stipulated depreciation of the buy price (plus associated finance costs) over the lease term. This means the car has a $10k option as delivered but the leaseholder pays only a fraction of that over the term.

If you test this in the configurator, you will find that the monthly lease payment increases by $128, not $278. In other words, it's very reasonable and far less than the probable subscription price. (I suppose Tesla could adjust said price just for lease customers, to keep the FSD subscription from being ridiculously higher than the lease-amortized purchase cost, but I wouldn't count on that happening).

 

[hakunamattata]

This is not the case. You simply divided $10k/36 months. But in a lease, you only pay for the stipulated depreciation of the buy price (plus associated finance costs) over the lease term. This means the car has a $10k option as delivered but the leaseholder pays only a fraction of that over the term.

If you test this in the configurator, you will find that the monthly lease payment increases by $128, not $278. In other words, it's very reasonable and far less than the probable subscription price. (I suppose Tesla could adjust said price just for lease customers, to keep the FSD subscription from being ridiculously higher than the lease-amortized purchase cost, but I wouldn't count on that happening).

Agreed in case of a lease you pay about half the price for FSD. I personally think what will really be attractive is if Tesla sells it like International Data passes which cellphone providers do i.e. you buy FSD for a daily rate or weekly rate or as needed. This will attract a lot of customers

 

[jeremymc7]

I really doubt Tesla would offer anything like that. There’s really no incentive for them. Besides I’m sure if they ran the numbers, which they likely have, monthly (or annually) works out to be more profitable. We’re not talking about a $500-1,000 phone but a $50,000-150,000 car so it works out different, obviously.

I paid for FSD up front at purchase with the last car. The one only six months before I just got EAP. I regret not having FSD on both, especially “IF” the FSD hits public “sometime” soon.

 

[Theosis]

What I think Tesla should do is change the way FSD currently is setup. They should make it where it's not attached to the car, but your account. So if we happen to upgrade a car 5 years from now, they should transfer over the FSD software to the new car.

I feel like many more people would actually buy the software if this was the case.

 

[2101Guy]

Im thinking FSD would perhaps sell better if it were a % of the cars price? $10k on a $139k Model S is a bit different than $10k on a $38k Model 3.

 

[Two-rocks]

Why is monthly assumed for the subscription model? I don't think that will work for many reasons...

1) Try it for a month, realize you still can't relax.
2) In that same month, passengers report the you are a $hit driver - you tell them it's the car.
3) Still in that month, you use your grey matter and realize FSD has little little use and reallocate the money to some fine wine.

With a yearly subscription, the promise of OTA magic will keep people longer (like the schleps who pay for FSD now). Never forget, the 'price will NOT go up' B.S. wording if you subscribe and lock in the annual rate today!

 

[angus[Y]oung]

@Two-rocks I'm also anticipating yearly term agreements but with the payments being monthly. I'm hoping they offer a free month or a trial month where you can cancel before committing to the full year, however.

 

[zer0cool]

Honestly if the subscription is for a service where the driver still has to pay full attention, I just don't see how people would find it to be worth much at all, let alone 100+ per month... AP is included in the car and highway driving is the large majority of most commutes... something that partially takes over local driving but still requires your full attention because it can't deal with the most complicated situations is just not very useful.

It is interesting? Yes. Is it worth buying, at a pretty high price also? No.