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FSD or not

Discussion in 'Model 3: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by kart9, Aug 19, 2018.

  1. kart9

    kart9 New Member

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    I am new to this forum and I have ordered AWD Model 3 which I will be getting in next 30 days. I have EAP but not FSD on the car when I ordered. AT the time of ordering, I was under the impression that FSD features will take next 2-3 years for rollout. I am wondering to add FSD at this time before taking the delivery because of lot of talk regarding Version 9 update and some FSD features rollout. I can't get handle on what these features it will be.

    Do you think I should take the dive and add FSD at this time or wait it out ?
     
  2. Tam

    Tam Active Member

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    I paid it without hesitation because I like technology, even when it is unproven and not working just yet!

    I'll be excited to grow with the system from nothing currently.

    However, if you are a traditional consumer who wants to get a final competent product, there's no need to pay it now.


    Tesla hasn't announced what those features will be. It could mean additional activation of cameras without any obvious difference to owners. It could mean a simple sign reader but without obeying signs...

    Elon Musk said there's no need to switch out the computer for Autopilot but you'll definitely need to do that for FSD so I don't expect any significant progress on FSD until the computers are replaced as early as next year in 2019.
     
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  3. RDoc

    RDoc S85D

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    How much would you pay for a flying pig (when regulatory agencies allow)? That's what FSD is worth today IMHO.
     
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  4. swaltner

    swaltner Member

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    You'll get a lot of different opinions on if you should order FSD right now.

    For me, FSD is *currently* vaporware. There is nothing this provides you other than a checkbox on a configuration sheet. As such, I didn't spend the extra money on nothing because the car could be totaled in an accident tomorrow and that $3k spent would have been a total waste. The value in buying it now is to avoid the premium to purchase it after the fact, which needs to be weighed against the risk of never being able to use the software feature.

    We are told to expect software version 9, which will include the "first of the FSD features", in the next month. I think an August release was specified, but I'm not expecting it for another couple months. As the specifics of these new features are announced, I'll personally do a new evaluation on if I feel the feature is worth the price of the FSD upgrade. This will likely involve travel to a Tesla store to get a little seat time in a demo vehicle with the new software. At some point, they may add enough individual features (stop light/sign recognition/handling; actual speed limit sign reading instead of the sometimes broken GPS/map derived info; navigating surface streets, handling some construction zones, handling crosswalks/pedestrians, handling ...).

    Over time, the feature set will mature and at some point it will be worth the purchase price. For now, I fail to see the value in the non-existent FSD feature.
     
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  5. Tam

    Tam Active Member

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    Even if roaming around to pick up a ride without a driver in it (FSD) is not allowed by law, it will still be great to be present behind the wheel to witness the marvel of technology in future.
     
  6. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

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    #6 MXWing, Aug 19, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2018
    I wrote up a detailed economic breakdown somewhere but too lazy to retype so will paraphrase.

    If you were EVER going to get it, say in the next five years just get it now.

    1.) you can finance it
    2.) it’s not 2016 so FSD is closer
    3.) 3000 now vs 5000 or more later
    4.) FSD is not all or nothing. You get incremental features as they release.
    5.) You have a paid for upgrade path to AP3 ensuring your FSD call option doesn’t expire worthless.
    6.) An actual autonomous taxi would be worth more than 3K. Wait for the price on this option once they hit L3, L4.

    FSD seems to have a lot of militant detractors but it’s clear the risk/reward ratio favors the upside.

    Must be people who leased? I’m excited for the AP3 retrofit on my 2016 Model X.
     
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  7. S4WRXTTCS

    S4WRXTTCS Active Member

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    I used to say no because I didn’t see the logic in paying for something where a pathway to success wasn’t there.

    There are too many regulatory, and technical roadblocks (with the current sensors).

    With that being said they made it more expensive to get FSD later on, and they’re only going to upgrade the “autopilot computer” for those that pay for FSD.

    So with FSD you’ll get at least a new autopilot computer out of it. Sure it might not do much, but hey it might be able to be the AI for a wicked game of Doom.
     
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  8. Kermee

    Kermee It's Not Easy Being Green

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    Welcome! And congratulations!

    Honestly, it's up to you, and people here will most likely go either way. I say there's no right or wrong answer.

    I can only speak for myself, personally, that I will probably want to get FSD once it's released, but I did not order my Model 3 with FSD. I decided to "miss" out on the savings and will see how FSD is once it's rolled out before determining when to purchase the upgrade. As much as I'd like to give Tesla a free "loan" by pre-purchasing FSD upfront, I decided to hang onto the cash and said that the delta between paying for it upfront vs. updating to it later was minimal.

    I'll say this though... If you're planning to finance a large portion of the purchase price of the vehicle and have a ridiculously low APR that I've seen people have been getting (1.99%, 1.49%, etc.)... AND, you're big into bleeding edge tech... It might make sense to pre-purchase FSD and roll it into the loan. Virtually pennies on the dollar at that point.
     
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  9. skitown

    skitown Supporting Member

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    I have an 85D with API. Have an AWD Model 3 ordered and currently en route to our service center (knock wood). Originally, I configured it without FSD, but I just decided to add it to my order on Friday as the $3K "now" price felt like a reasonable bet. And I've never felt bad about supporting Tesla even if some see it as irrational.
     
  10. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

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    Elon and dev builds has had FSD for over a year now.

    It requires extensive validation before going out to the general populace.

    It’s not a kickstarter that is waiting for funding to start work.
     
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  11. skitown

    skitown Supporting Member

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    Hopefully that wasn't what you took away from my post! :eek:
     
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  12. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

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    Nope! Was saying people think nothing is coming for years.
     
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  13. woodisgood

    woodisgood It's walnut, beech

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    We opted to hold off on FSD simply because we were already pushing the budget on the purchase price of the car, so paying more for something we couldn't use in the near future didn't make sense. That being said I do love being on the "bleeding edge" of tech and will probably add it when it shows up and seems useful for our driving.

    Honestly I think FSD purchasers will start to see some benefits for their purchase soon. It may not be anything close to "full self-driving," but I bet it will be small things the rest of us will want.
     
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  14. Gavyne

    Gavyne Member

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    If you can afford it and like to be an early adopter of tech, then definitely go for it. It's one of the more exciting things you'll see Tesla cars do in the near future. It'll be one of those things people are going to be amazed by, because most other cars won't be able to do it. People are already in love with the current autopilot and use it heavily.

    Keep in mind recent IIHS tests show Tesla Model 3 is way ahead of the curve when it comes to self driving and staying within lanes and keeping up adaptive cruise control. It performed much better than other car brands, including the older tech Model S. Imagine what they could do with newer software and hardware. If there's a car that'll be able to FSD or semi-FSD, it's going to be Tesla Model 3.

    However if you can't afford it or have to stretch your budget to get it, then don't sweat it. I couldn't afford it, so I settled for EAP for now. But I will be saving up to upgrade later.
     
  15. Stompy

    Stompy Member

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    You want me to purchase a feature that is not available yet and roll that in to my financing of the car? Insane! I purchased the performance model 3 with everything but the FSD because of this. I can make more money in the extra 2k or whatever it cost extra to add years later in investments. This is a 70k plus car already. You are paying for a software upgrade that doesn’t exist yet.
     
  16. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

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    1.) IF it only cost you 2K extra when you decide to do it.
    2.) Just because you can't download it to your car doesn't mean it doesn't exist. For practical purposes you can say it doesn't, but it can move from development to release at any time.



    upload_2018-8-19_23-41-59.png
     
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  17. rjcbox

    rjcbox Member

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    In 2015 when I purchased AP1, autopilot was not yet enabled until after several months of ownership. SO AMAZING waking up one morning after an OTA update (while I slept) to autopilot features. I would not have opted for FSD in 2015 knowing it was a couple years away. It was so much fun having new features rolled out over 3 years - the car NEVER felt like last year's model

    In 2018, I ordered w/ FSD - it's already here and being validated, would not characterize it as vaporware. If Tesla history repeats, they will roll out partial FSD features that are validated, and run other features being tested in stealth mode for hundreds of thousands of vehicles, with data sent daily to the Mothership, to further validate additional features, which they will then send out OTA software update. Legislation as usual will be reactive rather than proactive, and Tesla will push the limits that they safely feel they can push, towards the ultimate goal of self-driving

    I know it's taking a chance spending $ now for future features. But these features are already being validated and used on test fleets since last year. I'll be keeping this car for awhile and will save some $ up front
     
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  18. Peteski

    Peteski Active Member

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    I'll probably order FSD on my next Tesla in 2022 when it might actually provide some real world benefits. Token gesture FSD "features" are very unlikely to be worth the price pre or post delivery, but we'll see over the next year or so. In the meantime I'm happy with how current EAP handles mundane long distance driving and traffic jams and I prefer driving myself on more interesting roads. Adding stuff like stop light and sign recognition is pretty much worthless to me. But if they can make EAP safer with increased use of camera data etc then that may be a worthwhile benefit, although I still wouldn't trust it to drive without my full attention. Interesting times ahead!
     
  19. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    Wait. I think it's a good bet.

    Worst case, you save $3k. Base case is you pay $2k extra for something awesome.
     
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  20. Guest

    Guest Member

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    if they would attach FSD to the user rather than the car I would get it in an instant. If all the vehicles have the hardware, why do I need to buy the license to the software again if I change hardware? When I buy a new phone, I don't have to buy all the apps again... By the time FSD is ready for real world use I will want to buy the updated Model 3 or Model Y, so I will buy it then, not now, however, IF I could buy it now and it transferred with me as long as I owned a Tesla with that capability I would buy it today, even at a greater cost.
     
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