FSD purchasers: When might HW3.0 become available?

[rking0122]

I looked for any threads that might have clues but found none. Forgive me if I missed it somewhere. Maybe there simply is no answer yet...

For those of us with AP2.0/2.5 who bought into FSD (with the promise that our hardware would be upgraded to 3.0), is there any clue out there when it will be available? I know new cars have 3.0, just wondering when our cars might be called for retrofits.

Thanks in advance.

 

[dbldwn02]

There's no answer. Nobody knows. If anyone says they know, they're lying.

My guess is another year. And I'm being optimistic.

 

[ucmndd]

I also think it could be well over a year before they start retrofitting AP 2.5.

2.0 may potentially come sooner if there’s a FSD feature released that 2.5 can handle but 2.0 can’t. That would be a good way for them to get their feet wet with the retrofits.

 

[WallyB]

Ha, I know; the day after I trade my 3 in for the Y.

 

[whitex]

Elon says they are more than half done with HW4, so maybe HW3 will not be available as an upgrade at all.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Elon says they are more than half done with HW4, so maybe HW3 will not be available as an upgrade at all.

Really ? -- When was this ?

 

[whitex]

Really ? -- When was this ?

April 22, 2019, during the Tesla Autonomy Investor Day

 

[DanCar]

Elon says they are more than half done with HW4, so maybe HW3 will not be available as an upgrade at all.

He also said it is two years away, so sounds like a four year project.

 

[cuspie]

Elon says they are more than half done with HW4, so maybe HW3 will not be available as an upgrade at all.

He stated this at the Autonomy day presentation ... The video of that presentation should still be online.

But at the same time, just because the hardware is ready doesn't mean HW4 is ready ... As an AP2 FSD owner, I would be really sadden to have to wait for HW4 ... I think the only question for us: will HW3 be enough for FSD or will we get another update in the future ... I suppose only Elon knows ...

 

[TampaRich]

You know the hardware upgrade will be getting close when you start seeing YouTube vids of owners showing off the FSD in their HW3s.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

April 22, 2019, during the Tesla Autonomy Investor Day

cool thanks

 

[whitex]

He stated this at the Autonomy day presentation ... The video of that presentation should still be online.

But at the same time, just because the hardware is ready doesn't mean HW4 is ready ... As an AP2 FSD owner, I would be really sadden to have to wait for HW4 ... I think the only question for us: will HW3 be enough for FSD or will we get another update in the future ... I suppose only Elon knows ...

FSD description specifically says that it's impossible to predict when everything will be available. Until FSD is complete (driverless summon anywhere within battery range), Tesla does not know whether the hardware is sufficient, so they are probably not going to upgrade anyone until then (and yes, I know Elon said AP3 is totally capable, but he said the very same thing about AP2.0 so his credibility on the subject is low, plus he has a conflict of interest as the chief marketer of Tesla). If they upgrade people to HW3 and then 4 years later they find out FSD requires HW4, or HW5, then it will be yet another retrofit cost to them, so they have a rational argument to not upgrade until FSD is complete, which nobody knows when it will happen (Elon says next year, so then, if you believe him). While that sucks for people who paid for it, it is a logical interpretation of the fine print which everyone saw. Of course you could argue that you thought the timeframe to full FSD was going to be shorter, but that's a different argument than "no hw upgrades until FSD is complete".

 

[emmz0r]

FSD Computer Upgrade and Experience

Seems like Model 3 owners will get their first?

 

[Mark_T]

FSD Computer Upgrade and Experience

Seems like Model 3 owners will get their first?

No, that was just the usual '... put the customer off for a few weeks because we have no clue how to answer the question...'

Until there is an FSD feature released that requires HW3 to function at all, I would not expect any upgrades to happen.

Could be another 2 or 3 years yet at least.

 

[croman]

FSD Computer Upgrade and Experience

Seems like Model 3 owners will get their first?

Doubt it. Their retrofit is way harder. Model S and X no matter the revision is way easier.

 

[Dutchie]

No, that was just the usual '... put the customer off for a few weeks because we have no clue how to answer the question...'

Until there is an FSD feature released that requires HW3 to function at all, I would not expect any upgrades to happen.

Could be another 2 or 3 years yet at least.

I think they will start as soon as there is parity between HW3 and HW2.X and they have the computers ready. No reason to wait for feature release that require HW3 as then there will be a tsunami of requests to update computer

 

[sixela]

heir retrofit is way harder.

Having compared my HW2.5 car with a HW3 car, it looks like a 20-60 minute job to me -- the modules that contain the HWxx look pin-compatible to me, the bulk of the work is accessing them.

 

[Mark_T]

I think they will start as soon as there is parity between HW3 and HW2.X and they have the computers ready. No reason to wait for feature release that require HW3 as then there will be a tsunami of requests to update computer

Why would they spend money changing hardware for no actual user or manufacturer benefit? ... and they have shown no particular sign of being bothered by users clamouring for things like a fix for the yellow screen borders so I don't think it will bother them this time either.

Zero certainty that HW3 will actually handle FSD anyway so why leave themselves needing to do another free update further down the road?

I'm sticking with there having to be a featured release that needs it to trigger anything much happening, especially as it is a pretty fast swap when it is eventually needed...

 

[am_dmd]

Having seen how this company runs they will push installation as far as they can until most owners give up or ends their ownership.
I have no clue about this but does HW2/2.5 contribute to NN that runs on HW3? If not they will wait to release HW3 by selling newer cars only and let HW3 run on older NN and train newer NN at the same time. Basically rinse, repeat HW 4, HW 5 etc.

 

[Joelgjr]

I find it odd that people are not acknowledging that post in the model 3 forum where an owner had their AP upgraded to AP 3.
Either it happened and no one actually bothered to read that thread, or the OP of that thread confused getting their AP upgraded from 2.5 —> 3 to just getting a software update