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FSD rewrite will go out on Oct 20 to limited beta

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No, I did not sell TSLA. I am long on TSLA. I do not own Waymo stock. I only own TSLA and AAPL stock.



I am not negative. I love my Model 3. Best car I've ever owned. I posted earlier that I am very excited for the FSD Beta. I think the FSD Beta is amazing progress for Tesla. But being pro-Tesla and being excited for the FSD progress does not mean you can't also recognize limitations.



The disengagement data comes from the CA DMV report.

I’m not familiar with the CA DMV. I assume that’s the California motor vehicle authority or something. ?
So Waymo gives them ALL the data. What stops them from filtering it. ?
Does anyone have access to it. ?

What about fails etc. How can the public get their hands on failed videos, and all stats.

I’m skeptical that we’re getting accurate data from them. So when you throw statistics around about how great Waymo is, using their supplied data. How do we know how accurate it is. ?
 
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Everyone doing any driving L3 or above in CA must give an annual report on all those miles driven that way to the CA DMV every year.

Tesla does it too (though they've only had data to report twice ever- it's how we found out how fake the 2016 FSD video was for example- and how much better the 2019 one was....also how we found out the 2019 one was L3, not L4)

And yes the info is generally available to everyone AFAIK- for example-
Disengagement Reports - California DMV
 
@verygreen are you implying that the FSD visualizations that we see in the current release would "embarrass" Tesla because it somehow resembles the point clouds a radar manufacturer generates?
View attachment 601404

If not, please explain the "loss of face" that Tesla is supposedly trying to suppress data.


Just so there is no confusion, here is the FSD "Neural Net" output.
View attachment 601403
I have come to detest this green guy. He is big drama queen, always looking for an angle to somehow come up with an half-glass view of Tesla. Very knowledgeable no doubt, but sometimes I think he lacks the vision that make people great.
 
I have come to detest this green guy. He is big drama queen, always looking for an angle to somehow come up with an half-glass view of Tesla. Very knowledgeable no doubt, but sometimes I think he lacks the vision that make people great.

Agree; he seems super moody. Some of his responses to people are downright condescending and mean when such is entirely unwarranted.

I honestly can’t tell if it’s a language thing (because sometimes he phrases things in super vague ways — see the recent tweet as a great example; “their website has material that resembles the output of a sensor” ... what?) or if he’s just an unfriendly dude.
 
Agree; he seems super moody. Some of his responses to people are downright condescending and mean when such is entirely unwarranted.

I honestly can’t tell if it’s a language thing (because sometimes he phrases things in super vague ways) or if he’s just an unfriendly dude.

HIs AP related observations are spot on. I wish he had just stuck to that. But his observations on other aspects of Tesla often come out as petty and whiny.
 
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Everyone doing any driving L3 or above in CA must give an annual report on all those miles driven that way to the CA DMV every year.

Tesla does it too (though they've only had data to report twice ever- it's how we found out how fake the 2016 FSD video was for example- and how much better the 2019 one was....also how we found out the 2019 one was L3, not L4)

And yes the info is generally available to everyone AFAIK- for example-
Disengagement Reports - California DMV

Fair enough.
 
I think his “Attempts” is a statement implying work in progress. That’s not really misrepresentation. It’s his intention to get to level 5. That’s what he’s in the process of doing. Time will tell.
For someone to assume he can’t get there, therefore he must be misrepresenting FSD doesn’t seem right.
It will be a tough road.
He has explicitly referred to Level 5 on several occasions & then implied by Tesla’s current & near future advancements that they are close to L5
 
I have come to detest this green guy. He is big drama queen, always looking for an angle to somehow come up with an half-glass view of Tesla. Very knowledgeable no doubt, but sometimes I think he lacks the vision that make people great.

I tried to stay positive taking Green’s position as someone keeping Tesla in check so they are not doing something ignorant or putting consumers’ privacy in danger while going lightspeed in development. Green caught Tesla not wiping MCUs when customers did MCU2 upgrades, so I think that’s good.

I guess we can also view Tesla shorts are in their position to keep Tesla and Elon in check to make sure the company is great and makes money because Elon does not like to loose :p. As long as they are doing that legally...
 
Not really, one could interpret "driving" as obeying all traffic laws which the system surely doesn't do yet. There's a huge range between that and "autosteer".
I think you've got it somewhat backwards on L3 vs. L4 vs. L5. Level 3 is almost as difficult as Level 4 because the car has to safely deal with situations for 5-10 seconds before handing over control to the driver. To me that sounds almost as hard as having the car drive all the time.
Level 5 is basically a human driver whereas Level 3-4 can be restricted to certain driving conditions and locations. Waymo has Level 4 vehicles but they're nowhere close to Level 5.

Judging from the videos, the car is already doing a good of job of 'driving'. It's not a complete product yet, but the foundation seems solid. This is the 'rabbit out of the hat' moment I wished for the re-write.
And I have to disagree regarding regarding L3,L4 and L5. Level 4 and 5 don't need a driver in the driver's seat. They'll never ask for driving assistance and will handle situations on their own. What L5 has that L4 doesn't, is the ability to drive anywhere in all
conditions. Because L4 can't work everywhere safely, it's more than likely to start off in a geofenced setting. When L4 can work everywhere in all conditions, it will become L5. IMO, it will take quite a few years for that to happen.

L3 is that blurred line betwen L2 and L4 that demonstrates some aspects of both, and needs someone to be on alert in the driver's seat, but not necessarily monitoring. And depending on the level of progress, it can start close to L2 and slowly move closer to L4. However, it will
never cross that barrier until someone sitting in the driver's seat becomes unnecessary.
 
Judging from the videos, the car is already doing a good of job of 'driving'. It's not a complete product yet, but the foundation seems solid. This is the 'rabbit out of the hat' moment I wished for the re-write.
And I have to disagree regarding regarding L3,L4 and L5. Level 4 and 5 don't need a driver in the driver's seat. They'll never ask for driving assistance and will handle situations on their own. What L5 has that L4 doesn't, is the ability to drive anywhere in all
conditions. Because L4 can't work everywhere safely, it's more than likely to start off in a geofenced setting. When L4 can work everywhere in all conditions, it will become L5. IMO, it will take quite a few years for that to happen.

L3 is that blurred line betwen L2 and L4 that demonstrates some aspects of both, and needs someone to be on alert in the driver's seat, but not necessarily monitoring. And depending on the level of progress, it can start close to L2 and slowly move closer to L4. However, it will
never cross that barrier until someone sitting in the driver's seat becomes unnecessary.
Sure, it looks like a good start. I suspect their are many situations a driver might confront that it cannot deal with automatically yet though. So the car is not yet have "automatic driving." I would say it definitely has autosteer on city streets though.
A L3 car is far closer to L4 than it is to L2. Neither L3 not L4 require monitoring. I'm not sure what situation you're imagining that a L3 vehicle would not be required to handle.
 
I’m not familiar with the CA DMV. I assume that’s the California motor vehicle authority or something. ?

Yes, it is the California Department of Motor Vehicle which handles the regulations for autonomous vehicles in CA. Every company that wants to test or deploy autonomous vehicles is required by CA law to register their autonomous vehicles and file detailed reports every year. Companies that want to deploy driverless cars must get a permit from the CA DMV.

So Waymo gives them ALL the data. What stops them from filtering it. ?
Does anyone have access to it. ?

Every company is required by law to file detailed reports with the CA DMV. If the data were incomplete or suspicious, the DMV would follow up. The DMV makes all the data available to the public. You can see mileage reports and disengagements reports for each autonomous car.

You will see that Waymo reported over 1.4M miles of autonomous driving in CA in 2019 with 110 disengagements. And each disengagement is a line item that details the cause of every sigle disengagement.

By the way, Tesla only reported 12 miles in 2019 and that was the demo drive for Autonomy Day.

Disengagement Reports - California DMV

What about fails etc. How can the public get their hands on failed videos, and all stats.

Yes, all accidents are filed with the CA DMV. You can read accident reports on every single autonomous car that operates in CA:

Autonomous Vehicle Collision Reports - California DMV.

I’m skeptical that we’re getting accurate data from them. So when you throw statistics around about how great Waymo is, using their supplied data. How do we know how accurate it is. ?

The CA DMV report is just one data point I use. I also read all the Waymo safety manuals that describe Waymo's FSD. I read all the blogs that detail Waymo's machine learning techniques. I watch the presentations on Waymo's machine learning, camera vision, etc to learn about how their FSD works. And I watch videos of actual Waymo rides to watch how the cars drive.
 
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