FSD rewrite will go out on Oct 20 to limited beta

[mikes_fsd]

Green didn't say "that is not FSD rewrite". What he did say is that what was released to beta isn't what he is waiting for. There is a difference and people are trying to infer something that isn't reflected in this series of tweets.

Why is this controversial for you? Green is entitled to his own expectations.

He's saying a lot more than that.
That's why I said read the thread.

If he wasn't, there would be no confusion from other people that are asking him direct questions and then scratching their heads at the answers.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I was thinking self selected. I'd be surprised if Elon thinks they can get to level 5 this decade. There are plenty of decisions in driving that require knowledge of the world, that no system except for perhaps remote driving ones, will have the capability of. Will be interesting when level 5 intentioned systems are able to pass on two lane highways, drive on ice, handle snow, know to slow down in heavy rain, forge a stream, etc...

He did say "Level 5, no geofence" at autonomy day.
As far as I can tell he thinks they'll be able to train a general artificial intelligence into the car to solve all those issues.

 

[mikes_fsd]

If you think that is okay behavior for you, that is fine by me.
That is not okay behavior for me, especially for someone that I looked to for information and would constantly send people to his videos and twitter posts.

I thought the above quote was clear enough.

 

[DanCar]

He did say "Level 5, no geofence" at autonomy day.
As far as I can tell he thinks they'll be able to train a general artificial intelligence into the car to solve all those issues.

Someone needs to quiz him to make sure he understands what level 5 is. He obviously has overly simplified the topic as evident by his many misses.
Does Tesla have microphone(s) to listen for emergency vehicles?

 

[MP3Mike]

Someone needs to quiz him to make sure he understands what level 5 is.

Did he ever say SAE Level 5? Maybe he is referring to Tesla Level 5? (I think NHTSA used to have their own, differing, level number designations but abandoned them and adopted SAE's at some point.)

 

[GoSharks]

He's saying a lot more than that.
That's why I said read the thread.

If he wasn't, there would be no confusion from other people that are asking him direct questions and then scratching their heads at the answers.

I did read the thread. No, I don't believe he is saying all that much more than that, unless you're talking about the somewhat different topic of overnight NN/map updates. There's then some talk on how Green doesn't see this as a step change towards robo-taxis, which again, he is entitled to his own expectations or beliefs.

But that wasn't what you pointed out in your previous post. (#1470)

 

[mikes_fsd]

But that wasn't what you pointed out in your previous post. (#1470)

It is all one big thread.
All of those were taken from the same twitter thread.

I guess I'm reading it the wrong way, but then that would but explain the confusion on the thread by others.

 

[Soda Popinski]

Green says, that is not FSD rewrite --- it would be FSD rewrite if

That's not what Green said. He said it's not the FSD rewrite Green was waiting for. As in, it's a different FSD rewrite. He isn't disputing it is *an* FSD rewrite. He wanted to see "Plaidnet" not what he called stitched together Hydranets (AKNet?).

Edit: If this really is just the stitched together Hydranets, I'm really curious to see how it does when Pseudo-Lidar comes into the picture. Perhaps that's the next rewrite.

Edit 2: mspisars, while you may disagree with this post, my source is your post: "Like I said before, this is is really not 'the rewrite' I've been waiting for." Seems pretty clear he's talking about a different rewrite.

 

[DDotJ]

That's not what Green said. He said it's not the FSD rewrite Green was waiting for. As in, it's a different FSD rewrite. He isn't disputing it is *an* FSD rewrite. He wanted to see "Plaidnet" not what he called stitched together Hydranets (AKNet?).

If this really is just the stitched together Hydranets, I'm really curious to see how it does when Pseudo-Lidar comes into the picture. Perhaps that's the next rewrite.

Indeed, HydraNet has been around for a while. I believe what Green is saying is that this FSD Rewrite is putting together all the elements that have existed for a while now such as the BEV layer and HydraNet, not completely new NNs built from scratch such as the PlaidNet that was seen in firmware recently. I think some people online were postulating that PlaidNet would be the "fundamental architectural rewrite" Elon was talking about and Green is mentioning that this rewrite is not that.

https://twitter.com/greentheonly/status/1319452146157445120

I guess step 0 should be to agree what does "rewrite" mean. Difference between 2020.40.8 and 2020.40.8.10 on the NN front seems to be just inclusion of 4 additional NNS 3 of which are HYDRANET_STOPS_{FISHEYE,NARROW,MAIN}

so in 2019.40.50 we got addition of the BEV shim layer (detailed by AK in the February presentation), it's all "new" of course (for the time) and it was being gradually improving since then + the citystreets sw1.0 module. But it might not be the rewrite (some)people think about.

So maybe Tesla has other cards up their sleeve that they haven't shown yet? Maybe a further architectural change on the horizon, possibly with the introduction of Dojo?

 

[mikes_fsd]

Indeed, HydraNet has been around for a while. I believe what Green is saying is that this FSD Rewrite is putting together all the elements that have existed for a while now such as the BEV layer and HydraNet, not completely new NNs built from scratch such as the PlaidNet that was seen in firmware recently. I think some people online were postulating that PlaidNet would be the "fundamental architectural rewrite" Elon was talking about and Green is mentioning that this rewrite is not that.

https://twitter.com/greentheonly/status/1319452146157445120



So maybe Tesla has other cards up their sleeve that they haven't shown yet? Maybe a further architectural change on the horizon, possibly with the introduction of Dojo?

That I can see.
But again, the main point was and still is:
Tesla says A
Green says nah it's B

Tesla officially says this is the FSD rewrite and on Twitter Karpathy seems to confirm it ( https://twitter.com/karpathy/status/1318985160117817344 )

But Green says, nah it should be PlaidNet.

 

[mikes_fsd]

mspisars, while you may disagree with this post, my source is your post: "Like I said before, this is is really not 'the rewrite' I've been waiting for." Seems pretty clear he's talking about a different rewrite.

That is fantastic, no-one at Tesla has said there is a different rewrite.
They all seem to point to this being the fruit of their massive effort.

 

[mikes_fsd]

Man, I wish people would give Tesla et al this much grace on stuff they say!

 

[mikes_fsd]

A simple, "I guess the PlaidNet is not what I thought it was" or "Maybe PlaidNet is something even further down the development pipeline" would have removed all confusion.

 

[DDotJ]

That I can see.
But again, the main point was and still is:
Tesla says A
Green says nah it's B
...
But Green says, nah it should be PlaidNet.

I mean to be fair to Green, I think he is simply pointing out that the rewrite is not what many assumed it would be. In all honesty, I also saw the PlaidNet leaks in firmware and thought the rewrite Elon was referring to was PlaidNet. Elon did say "fundamental architectural rewrite of AP" so I think many had the assumption that the rewrite would be all new NNs and basically a total rewrite of the entire AP software stack. What Green has found is that it may not be a complete rewrite, but many of the iteratively improved puzzle pieces put together for FSD. Which is still very impressive, I think everyone had a different definition of "rewrite" in their minds.

I would be lying if I said I wasn't surprised that the FSD Beta was running HydraNet (which isn't a huge deal since the FSD beta is really impressive).

I mean PlaidNet could also just have been one of those NNs that Tesla was testing that might never be implemented in production. I remember reading a thread on TMC of another inactive NN (the AKNet_v9 "monster NN") spotted in firmware that from what I can tell never went into production builds. Or maybe it could be something that Tesla is planning for the future but Tesla/Elon haven't spoken about publicly yet.

 

[DDotJ]

On a side note, I can't wait until Andrej Karpathy or Elon does a presentation on the rewrite either at another Investor Autonomy Day or at a conference to get an insight into what exactly the rewrite entails. That should definitely clear up any definitions of what the rewrite is. Hopefully more details on Dojo too.

Apparently Tesla is still handling the driving policy with conventional C++ code, but Andrej mentioned that eventually they want more of AP to be Software 2.0. Plus all the talks of video training at a massive scale with Dojo make me wonder if Tesla is going to move to the system of video as input, and driving controls as output as they have talked about in the past.

I wonder if there is another step change "rewrite" in the future using Dojo with more driving policy being handled by NNs, or if Tesla has backed off that approach and will keep driving decisions as conventional code. And if that is the case, how Dojo fits into that approach.

 

[mikes_fsd]

I wonder if there is another step change "rewrite" in the future using Dojo with more driving policy being handled by NNs, or if Tesla has backed off that approach and will keep driving decisions as conventional code. And if that is the case, how Dojo fits into that approach.

I do expect for things to keep improving - always.
As for an update, I specifically want to know how much of the old stack have the NN's taken over. In June he showed these slides:

 

[82bert]

I was thinking self selected. I'd be surprised if Elon thinks they can get to level 5 this decade. There are plenty of decisions in driving that require knowledge of the world, that no system except for perhaps remote driving ones, will have the capability of. Will be interesting when level 5 intentioned systems are able to pass on two lane highways, drive on ice, handle snow, know to slow down in heavy rain, forge a stream, etc...
There are signs in the Phoenix area, that say, do not cross when chance of flash flood. When will a level 5 car understand that and other signs that require higher level reasoning?
My point is you need general A.I. to reach level 5 and that isn't happening in the foreseeable future. May not happen for 50 years.

I’m not going to claim that true level 5, fully autonomous driving is right around the corner, but whenever I hear someone say that it may not happen for 50 years, I can’t help but think how myopic they are. I’d be shocked if it’s not here within 10 years. Really and truly.

 

[karbomusic]

. What Green has found is that it may not be a complete rewrite, but many of the iteratively improved puzzle pieces put together for FSD. Which is still very impressive, I think everyone had a different definition of "rewrite" in their minds.

If I had a nickel for every time someone used the word "rewrite" concerning software stacks and it not literally be that, because there will usually be multiple components/code in the stack that is already as good as it can be and is ported into the "rewrite".

I'd suggest rewrite is a loose term here and possibly contributing to the confusion. It could simply be a new branch with enough breaking architectural changes that it's a one-way street, and significant enough to call a rewrite. And nothing is wrong with that, it's just better than saying "full rewrite except this, this, this, this, this and that" all the time.

 

[mikes_fsd]

That's not what Green said.

How can you explain, watching the videos of FSD beta out in the wild, after not seeing anything like it before from Tesla, that this does not bring Tesla closer to the future of robotaxis?

I'm sorry I'm having a hard time seeing green just thought he would see a different NN name in the code.

"it [FSD beta release] does not really change much wrt [with regard to] what we have seen before"
We have not see any of the functionality the FSD Beta has shown a Tesla can do.

Please hand hold me through your logic.

 

[DanCar]

I’m not going to claim that true level 5, fully autonomous driving is right around the corner, but whenever I hear someone say that it may not happen for 50 years, I can’t help but think how myopic they are. I’d be shocked if it’s not here within 10 years. Really and truly.

I'm willing to take a bet on your myopicness. If it is not here in ten years, I win, otherwise if Tesla level 5 is here, robot drives in any terrain, any situation, anywhere that a human drives, then you win. Seems absurd to me, but maybe you people know something that someone with machine learning teaching experience doesn't.