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FSD speculation - which features do you want/expect to see first?

Discussion in 'Model S' started by thegruf, Aug 12, 2018.

  1. thegruf

    thegruf Active Member

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    Lots of discussion on other threads about the legalities and insurance of FSD.
    On ramp to off ramp has been previously stated to be EAP and hints that it is coming in V9 so that doesnt count.

    So what is the first FSD feature that Tesla will release first and how will they roll out features.
    What's your itemized (wish) list/expectation?

    Auto-lane change has to be the prime candidate for early release imo
     
  2. bob_p

    bob_p Active Member

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    Auto lane change is also EAP, though without using all 8 cameras, not if the software will be able to safely lane change with only 4 of the cameras.

    There are 3 basic modes for FSD - highway, surface streets and parking lots/summons.

    EAP is supposed to work in highway mode, at least on limited access highways with entry/exit ramps. So it's not clear what "FSD-only" feature would not also apply to EAP on highways.

    Surface streets are the most difficult - using all 8 cameras to build a 360 perspective, recognizing traffic signals & signs, along with other vehicles and objects (both moving and stationary). One possibility would be recognition of traffic signals and signs.

    Summons is the third possible area for an FSD-only feature. Today we only have straight forward/back, with limited distance, requiring the operator to be next to the car. Assuming Tesla is using all of the cameras and sensors, and the vehicle moves slowly, it's possible summons could be extended to do more than it does today - such as automatically lining up to enter a parking space or garage, and recognizing that it needs to turn when backing out of a parking space. Since Summons works very slowly (slower than a human driver), it's possible Tesla could provide more functionality here, at a lower risk - because most of the obstacles are stationary, and if there is a moving object, the vehicle is moving so slowly to be able to stop immediately.

    One feature that needs to be addressed is the nag. Our 2017 S 100D works well - only requiring a hand on the steering wheel to avoid the nag. In our 2 month old X, the nag is annoying - even with hands kept on the steering wheel all of the time - and continuously looking at the traffic ahead continuously - I am now forced to look away from the road ahead more frequently to see if the nag has been enabled, forcing me to make an unneeded small jerk on the steering wheel to turn off the nag. With TACC enabled, there isn't any need to be looking at the dashboard as often - with the nag, I'm actually forced to take my eyes off the highway more often...
     
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  3. KY Chew

    KY Chew New Member

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    Is there a chance that version 9 will eliminate the nag altogether? Or at least make the time between nags much greater...
     
  4. Mark_T

    Mark_T Member

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    I very much doubt that.
     
  5. S4WRXTTCS

    S4WRXTTCS Active Member

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    I have a hard time coming up with what feature could possibly be released for FSD.

    The way I tend to see it is any feature that requires 100% oversight from a human is EAP. Where we have automatic lane changes, and smart summons. EAP will always be L2 driving.

    Where FSD is anything that is L3 or above.

    I don't expect to see any FSD related driving feature released in V9.0 that's going to drop in September. I'm not ruling out a non-driving related feature like additional cameras activated for dash cam or while driving view.

    My prediction is that in one year we'll see speed/location limited L3 with FSD. There is nothing novel or unique about that prediction. I'm a bit more cynical about the date than most.
     
  6. Snowstorm

    Snowstorm Member

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    I really don't see any meaningful FSD features capable in Sep 2018. There are so much still missing from EAP that was promised at the end of 2016 that is yet to happen. Including smart summon (not just in a straight line), highway auto lane change to go between interchanges etc... I would expect some of those to be done before real FSD is there, and it would be a great thing. Oh, there are also things that AP1 had that we AP2.x EAP still doesn't, like recognition of vehicle type on the dash and reading speed limit sign.

    If I have to guess at what real FSD feature there will be, then I would say auto stop on red light or something like that...
     
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  7. SpudLime

    SpudLime Member

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    Could it be as simple as enter and exit a highway? Change lanes by itself and no nagging?

    In short. EAP = Nag. FSD = No Nag. For highway use.
     
  8. bob_p

    bob_p Active Member

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    Driving from entry to exit is promised as part of EAP. Auto-lane change is also promised for EAP. These are both features intended for use on limited access highways - which has always been the goal for EAP, with "hands on the wheel".

    Tesla can't release anything today that doesn't require a human to be in control of the vehicle - which is why we have the nag and Summons requires you to be in very close proximity of the car, though there might be a small loophole when the vehicle is operating on private property.

    This means that any FSD feature released in Version 9.0 likely will not be "self driving", it seems more likely it will be a feature either using all 8 cameras or that is required to support future self-driving, that would not be needed to meet EAP's stated goals.

    Could it be something as simple as a 360 degree view on the console display - using all 8 cameras?
     
  9. TrevTremaine

    TrevTremaine Member

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    More than likely it'll be called a "beta" and it'll require driver input (especially given the noted AP incidents). Even on the current/latest release there's issues that lead me to believe that shy of a major rewrite it'll be a bits and piece leading up to a more comprehensive update. It may not get there until the new hardware is incorporated as well.
     
  10. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    #10 EinSV, Aug 13, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2018
    I think the first FSD features will likely be stopping for red lights and/or stop signs. Tesla can release them initially as safety features (red-light assist or stop-sign assist).

    They hinted pretty strongly they would do this on the recent conference call with analysts:

    Elon Musk: “So that's – the focus is really massively on safety of existing features. Then there's an advanced dev role that can do things like recognize traffic lights and stop signs and make hard right turns and that kind of thing, but it's not at the safety level that's considered okay for release.” <snip>​

    Stuart Bowers: “So I think when we look forward to what the next probably 6 to 12 months look like, it's taking those same kind of features we've been working on, probably deploying them in the form of active safety features. That's like a thing we can do already to understand like – use this rich understanding of the environment to actually try to keep you safer, to either beep or brake. And then also, of course like one huge advantage that we have is we can understand what humans actually did in these vehicles and test our software to make sure that we would have made decisions that were similar if not safer. So that's going to be a huge part of what we do over the next probably two quarters.” Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2018 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
     
  11. thegruf

    thegruf Active Member

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    just taking lane change as an example of expected development.
    We can see today that the when a lane change is actuated manually the car is checking the adjacent lane before commencing, so it is not too big a step to further automate this for what will be essential for FSD on the highway.
    However I am left with a question - AP may be able to pick up a car in the adjacent lane, but what if a bike is lane splitting and appears suddenly as they do sometimes. Does the car discriminate that well yet?
    Does the the car being in control with FSD teach the bike a lesson?

    I think it is quite interesting that actually none of us have much idea what Tesla are going to do at this juncture aka this will be fascinating to see what and how it is rolled out.
     
  12. thegruf

    thegruf Active Member

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    @EinSV - you posted just before mine, so I didnt see it.
    Good observations on what Tesla have said to date

    Stop lights are possibly the most dangerous thing Tesla can do though.
    Imagine if it got one wrong.

    And what about light changing - when you have somebody right up your chuff and there is a fair chance of them slamming into the back of you if you brake unexpectedly hard.
    At least if we get stop lights, then surely we must get sign recognition too at last.
     
  13. EinSV

    EinSV Active Member

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    #13 EinSV, Aug 13, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2018
    The beauty of the approach Stuart Bowers describes is that if they need more data they can initially release the features as a “warning beep” and then activate as a driver assist stop light or stop sign brake when they have enough data to make them confident they are increasing safety.

    Then as they collect even more data they can transition to letting the FSD features take the lead on stopping with the driver supervising akin to how lane keeping works now.

    A nice, safe progression.
     

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