Here is a great summary of what Elon has communicated about the FSD timeline.
Full copy below for archival
Full copy below for archival
- September 2014
They will be a factor of 10 safer than a person [at the wheel] in a six-year time frame
Source - December 2015
We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years.
Source - January 2016
In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY
Source - June 2016
I really consider autonomous driving a solved problem, I think we are less than two years away from complete autonomy, safer than humans, but regulations should take at least another year
Source - October 2016
By the end of next year, said Musk, Tesla would demonstrate a fully autonomous drive from, say, a home in L.A., to Times Square ... without the need for a single touch, including the charging.
Source - January 2017
At what point will Full Self-Driving Capability features noticeably depart from? - Elon: 3 months maybe, 6 months definitely
Source - March 2017
I think that [you will be able to fall asleep in a Tesla] is about two years
Source - May 2017
Update on the coast to coast autopilot demo? - Still on for end of year. Just software limited. Any Tesla car with HW2 (all cars built since Oct last year) will be able to do this.
Source - March 2018
I think probably by end of next year [end of 2019] self-driving will encompass essentially all modes of driving and be at least 100% to 200% safer than a person.
Source - November 2018
Probably technically be able to [self deliver Teslas to customers doors] in about a year then its up to the regulators
Source - January 2019
We need to be at 99.9999..% We need to be extremely reliable. When do we think it is safe for FSD, probably towards the end of this year then its up to the regulators when they will decide to approve that.
Source - February 2019
We will be feature complete full self driving this year. The car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year. I'm certain of that. That is not a question mark. It will be essentially safe to fall asleep and wake up at their destination towards the end of next year
Source - April 2019
I think it will require detecting hands on wheel for at least six months.... I think this was all really going to be swept, I mean, the system is improving so much, so fast, that this is going to be a moot point very soon. No, in fact, I think it will become very, very quickly, maybe and towards the end this year, but I say, I'd be shocked if not next year, at the latest that having the person, having human intervene will decrease safety. DECREASE! (in response to human supervision and adding driver monitoring system)
Source - April 2019
We expect to be feature complete in self driving this year, and we expect to be confident enough from our standpoint to say that we think people do not need to touch the wheel and can look out the window sometime probably around the second quarter of next year.
Source - May 2019
We could have gamed an LA/NY Autopilot journey last year, but when we do it this year, everyone with Tesla Full Self-Driving will be able to do it too
Source - April 2020
Robotaxis release/deployment... Functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown
Source - April 2020
we could see robotaxis in operation with the network fleet next year, not in all markets but in some.
Source - July 2020
I am extremely confident that level five or essentially complete autonomy will happen, and I think, will happen very quickly, I think at Tesla, I feel like we are very close to level five autonomy. I think—I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year, There are no fundamental challenges remaining. There are many small problems. And then there's the challenge of solving all those small problems and putting the whole system together.
Source - October 2020
FSD beta rollout happening tonight. Will be extremely slow & cautious, as it should.
Source - December 2020
I am extremely confident of achieving full autonomy and releasing it to the Tesla customer base next year. But I think at least some jurisdictions are going to allow full self-driving next year.
Source - December 2020
I'm extremely confident that Tesla will have level five next year, extremely confident, 100%
Source - January 2021
Tesla Full Self-Driving will work at a safety level well above that of the average driver this year, of that I am confident. Can’t speak for regulators though.
Source - January 2021
FSD will be capable of Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2021
Source - March 2021
Due to high levels of demand for FSD Beta, adding “Download Beta” button to Service section of car display in ~10 days
Source - March 2021
Build 8.3 of FSD should be done QA testing by end of next week, so that’s roughly when download button should show up
Source - March 2021
Next significant release will be in April. Going with pure vision — not even using radar. This is the way to real-world AI.
Source - April 2021
Button timing of May is aspirational. Depends on how well limited beta of V9.0 goes, but I would be surprised if wide beta (aka button) is later than June. FSD subscription next month is a sure thing.
Source - April 2021
Any wisdom on limited v9 fsd beta release ? - Probably two weeks
Source