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FSD Timeline Promises (summary)

t3sl4drvr

Member
Sep 24, 2017
54
109
USA
Here is a great summary of what Elon has communicated about the FSD timeline.


Full copy below for archival
  • September 2014
    They will be a factor of 10 safer than a person [at the wheel] in a six-year time frame
    Source
  • December 2015
    We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years.
    Source
  • January 2016
    In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY
    Source
  • June 2016
    I really consider autonomous driving a solved problem, I think we are less than two years away from complete autonomy, safer than humans, but regulations should take at least another year
    Source
  • October 2016
    By the end of next year, said Musk, Tesla would demonstrate a fully autonomous drive from, say, a home in L.A., to Times Square ... without the need for a single touch, including the charging.
    Source
  • January 2017
    At what point will Full Self-Driving Capability features noticeably depart from? - Elon: 3 months maybe, 6 months definitely
    Source
  • March 2017
    I think that [you will be able to fall asleep in a Tesla] is about two years
    Source
  • May 2017
    Update on the coast to coast autopilot demo? - Still on for end of year. Just software limited. Any Tesla car with HW2 (all cars built since Oct last year) will be able to do this.
    Source
  • March 2018
    I think probably by end of next year [end of 2019] self-driving will encompass essentially all modes of driving and be at least 100% to 200% safer than a person.
    Source
  • November 2018
    Probably technically be able to [self deliver Teslas to customers doors] in about a year then its up to the regulators
    Source
  • January 2019
    We need to be at 99.9999..% We need to be extremely reliable. When do we think it is safe for FSD, probably towards the end of this year then its up to the regulators when they will decide to approve that.
    Source
  • February 2019
    We will be feature complete full self driving this year. The car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year. I'm certain of that. That is not a question mark. It will be essentially safe to fall asleep and wake up at their destination towards the end of next year
    Source
  • April 2019
    I think it will require detecting hands on wheel for at least six months.... I think this was all really going to be swept, I mean, the system is improving so much, so fast, that this is going to be a moot point very soon. No, in fact, I think it will become very, very quickly, maybe and towards the end this year, but I say, I'd be shocked if not next year, at the latest that having the person, having human intervene will decrease safety. DECREASE! (in response to human supervision and adding driver monitoring system)
    Source
  • April 2019
    We expect to be feature complete in self driving this year, and we expect to be confident enough from our standpoint to say that we think people do not need to touch the wheel and can look out the window sometime probably around the second quarter of next year.
    Source
  • May 2019
    We could have gamed an LA/NY Autopilot journey last year, but when we do it this year, everyone with Tesla Full Self-Driving will be able to do it too
    Source
  • April 2020
    Robotaxis release/deployment... Functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown
    Source
  • April 2020
    we could see robotaxis in operation with the network fleet next year, not in all markets but in some.
    Source
  • July 2020
    I am extremely confident that level five or essentially complete autonomy will happen, and I think, will happen very quickly, I think at Tesla, I feel like we are very close to level five autonomy. I think—I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year, There are no fundamental challenges remaining. There are many small problems. And then there's the challenge of solving all those small problems and putting the whole system together.
    Source
  • October 2020
    FSD beta rollout happening tonight. Will be extremely slow & cautious, as it should.
    Source
  • December 2020
    I am extremely confident of achieving full autonomy and releasing it to the Tesla customer base next year. But I think at least some jurisdictions are going to allow full self-driving next year.
    Source
  • December 2020
    I'm extremely confident that Tesla will have level five next year, extremely confident, 100%
    Source
  • January 2021
    Tesla Full Self-Driving will work at a safety level well above that of the average driver this year, of that I am confident. Can’t speak for regulators though.
    Source
  • January 2021
    FSD will be capable of Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2021
    Source
  • March 2021
    Due to high levels of demand for FSD Beta, adding “Download Beta” button to Service section of car display in ~10 days
    Source
  • March 2021
    Build 8.3 of FSD should be done QA testing by end of next week, so that’s roughly when download button should show up
    Source
  • March 2021
    Next significant release will be in April. Going with pure vision — not even using radar. This is the way to real-world AI.
    Source
  • April 2021
    Button timing of May is aspirational. Depends on how well limited beta of V9.0 goes, but I would be surprised if wide beta (aka button) is later than June. FSD subscription next month is a sure thing.
    Source
  • April 2021
    Any wisdom on limited v9 fsd beta release ? - Probably two weeks
    Source
 

Nosken

Member
Jan 15, 2015
841
702
Lincoln, CA
One of the early presentations with AP1, he was promised something that works just like the current summon is supposed to. It would come get you anywhere in a private parking lot?
 
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techlogik

Member
Mar 22, 2021
312
192
FL
Look, you can't rely on what the CEO of a company says and predicts. This is obvious right?

What is baffling is I can't remember any CEO making such wild predictions related to the company, products, capabilities ever...anywhere...at least not this high profile. And continues to basically get a pass.
 

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
12,761
18,797
NC
Here is a great summary of what Elon has communicated about the FSD timeline.



[*]September 2014
They will be a factor of 10 safer than a person [at the wheel] in a six-year time frame


Funny story-


Driving on AP is.... about 10 times safer than the average car (presumably human driven) in the US.


That said on the rest, it's worth revisiting something else Elon told us on 60 minutes years ago:

Elon Musk 60 minutes said:
People should not ascribe to malice that which can easily be explained by stupidity." (LAUGHTER) So-- so it's, like, just because I'm, like, dumb at-- at predicting dates does not mean I am untruthful. I don't know-- I-- we've-- I never made a mass-produced car. How am I supposed to know with precision when it's gonna get done?

Sub anything else he's never done (or in many cases NOBODY has ever done- FSD, reusable rockets, etc) for "made a mass produced car" and the same holds true.
 

idriveacar

Member
Jun 30, 2021
55
92
Fremont
Funny story-


Driving on AP is.... about 10 times safer than the average car (presumably human driven) in the US.


That said on the rest, it's worth revisiting something else Elon told us on 60 minutes years ago:



Sub anything else he's never done (or in many cases NOBODY has ever done- FSD, reusable rockets, etc) for "made a mass produced car" and the same holds true.
I wonder about this safety report; is it comparing AP-miles on highway vs non-AP miles on highway, is it comparing AP-miles on highway to non-AP miles on every road, or is it comparing AP miles on every road to non-AP miles on every road?

This should make a huge difference, since most AP miles are on highway, yet most accidents occur off highway. If you compare AP miles to anything but highway non-AP miles, you cannot make any reasonable statment about safety. Highways are the ODD of AP, so there really shouldn't be any statements made about AP's safety using data from anything but highways.
 

powertoold

Active Member
Oct 10, 2014
2,767
5,254
USA
This should make a huge difference, since most AP miles are on highway, yet most accidents occur off highway.

That's true. However, AP can be enabled on city streets, and given the number of Tesla newbies driving nowadays, it's impressive that Tesla has maintained the AP safety statistic.
 

Tam

Well-Known Member
Nov 25, 2012
9,119
7,836
Visalia, CA
...This should make a huge difference, since most AP miles are on highway, yet most accidents occur off highway. If you compare AP miles to anything but highway non-AP miles, you cannot make any reasonable statment about safety. Highways are the ODD of AP, so there really shouldn't be any statements made about AP's safety using data from anything but highways...

The IIHS seems to suggest that Rural car deaths are higher than Urban. My guess is the higher the speed (rural) the deadlier when there's a car crash:


"In 2019, the rate of crash deaths per 100 million miles traveled was about 2 times as high in rural areas as in urban areas (1.66 in rural areas compared with 0.86 in urban areas). "


1627589168153.png
 

daniel

Well-Known Member
May 7, 2009
5,001
3,822
Kihei, HI
Look, you can't rely on what the CEO of a company says and predicts. This is obvious right?

What is baffling is I can't remember any CEO making such wild predictions related to the company, products, capabilities ever...anywhere...at least not this high profile. And continues to basically get a pass.

I give Musk credit and admiration for what Tesla has accomplished. Tesla has made electric cars mainstream, and built the best cars a consumer can buy today. AP/EAP are amazing, and I believe I am safer using EAP on the highway (while remaining attentive and alert!) than I would be without. SpaceX sends people and payloads to the ISS cheaper than any government can, and lands the boosters for re-use. This is impressive and worthy of admiration.

I just take his statements about future technology with a grain of salt, and I ignore his predicted time lines entirely concerning future developments.

There are people who are excellent at their jobs but go off the rails when they speak outside their field. Musk is great at his job of running Tesla and SpaceX, but predicting when (or even if) FSD will become a reality is simply outside Musk's field and he should just be ignored when he talks about it. Like a precocious kid who can play the piano beautifully and it's a joy to listen to, but who also likes to make up stories about the talking hippopotamus who comes to visit at night. You just accept that the stories are part of who the kid is and you let them slide because the music is so beautiful. Elon blows smoke about FSD but I let it slide because I'm driving the best car ever built, thanks to him.
 

raptor5244

Active Member
May 10, 2019
1,192
878
Florida
I give Musk credit and admiration for what Tesla has accomplished. Tesla has made electric cars mainstream, and built the best cars a consumer can buy today. AP/EAP are amazing, and I believe I am safer using EAP on the highway (while remaining attentive and alert!) than I would be without. SpaceX sends people and payloads to the ISS cheaper than any government can, and lands the boosters for re-use. This is impressive and worthy of admiration.

I just take his statements about future technology with a grain of salt, and I ignore his predicted time lines entirely concerning future developments.

There are people who are excellent at their jobs but go off the rails when they speak outside their field. Musk is great at his job of running Tesla and SpaceX, but predicting when (or even if) FSD will become a reality is simply outside Musk's field and he should just be ignored when he talks about it. Like a precocious kid who can play the piano beautifully and it's a joy to listen to, but who also likes to make up stories about the talking hippopotamus who comes to visit at night. You just accept that the stories are part of who the kid is and you let them slide because the music is so beautiful. Elon blows smoke about FSD but I let it slide because I'm driving the best car ever built, thanks to him.
I tend to agree but customers are dropping $10k on FSD vaporware based on what he says and many are not used to companies overpromising and under delivering like this. I agree that most tend to get over FSD bologna since the EV powertrain is excellent and the user interface UI is modern. The rest of the car is average, materials, fit and finish, paint, etc.
 

daniel

Well-Known Member
May 7, 2009
5,001
3,822
Kihei, HI
I tend to agree but customers are dropping $10k on FSD vaporware based on what he says and many are not used to companies overpromising and under delivering like this. I agree that most tend to get over FSD bologna since the EV powertrain is excellent and the user interface UI is modern. The rest of the car is average, materials, fit and finish, paint, etc.

Bologna is a kind of processed meat product. Baloney is nonsense.

My Model 3 is excellent all-around. Fit and finish are not quite as good as Toyota or Honda, but they have many more years of experience. Where it matters: performance & features, it's the best car on the road. (Obviously, my opinion.)

My Asperger's makes it really hard for me to see things through other people's eyes, and I am completely baffled that some people believed that true FSD was just around the corner when Musk admitted that the software did not yet exist and in the same breath assured us that my car had all the necessary hardware for it. How can you know what hardware will be needed for software that does not exist? Some people made it clear that they were paying for "FSD" in order to support the development. That's their choice. The people who actually thought it was a year away are proof that P.T. Barnum was right. That does not justify Elon's stealing $10K from them, and it definitely shows the dishonest side of him. (Along with numerous other inexcusable things he's done.)

But at the end of the day, I wanted an electric car so badly that for four years my daily driver was a Zap Xebra and I loved that total piece of crap. And then Tesla built the Roadster, and eventually the Model 3, and thanks in large part to Elon, people no longer think of electric cars as golf carts.

I will buy FSD when FSD exists.
 

Tam

Well-Known Member
Nov 25, 2012
9,119
7,836
Visalia, CA
...I am completely baffled that some people believed that true FSD was just around the corner when Musk admitted that the software did not yet exist and in the same breath assured us that my car had all the necessary hardware for it. How can you know what hardware will be needed for software that does not exist?...

"Musk originally argued that the Model Y, released last year, didn't need a steering wheel since the vehicle was meant to be fully self-driving"

 

Daniel in SD

Well-Known Member
Jan 25, 2018
6,849
9,725
San Diego
"Musk originally argued that the Model Y, released last year, didn't need a steering wheel since the vehicle was meant to be fully self-driving"

At least they reached a compromise on the new Model S.

That story sounds a little too ridiculous to believe.
 

raptor5244

Active Member
May 10, 2019
1,192
878
Florida
"Musk originally argued that the Model Y, released last year, didn't need a steering wheel since the vehicle was meant to be fully self-driving"

I have a CyberTruck on order but that damn yoke may kill it for me. I will have to try it out first. Now if it had some sort variable ratio where you didn't have to go arm over arm when making a turn them maybe but there is a reason why a wheel has been the best solution for so long. Some things may look cool but are not practical.
 
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