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FSD Timeline Promises (summary)

drtimhill

Active Member
Apr 25, 2019
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3 X is barely adequate for public acceptance and the race doesn't stop there. Any auto maker that hopes to stay in the game will need at least 10 X better than human safety.
Why do you assert this? 3x is a massive improvement compared to humans .. do you have any studies to back up these assertions? I would think a car that was "twice as safe" would be pretty impressive (though quite how you would measure that is not clear to me).
 
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Daniel in SD

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Jan 25, 2018
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um ... well assuming one or the other of two parties are at fault, isnt that true by definition? Kinda like "50% of people are above average" ? :)
Yes. I was just explaining the simple math for how good a system has to be to achieve 10x human safety. I don't think it's possible to avoid the required percentage of collisions, sometimes people just run into you and there's nothing you can do.
This is why I think the culturally acceptable level of safety is much closer to 1x than most people think. I think the percentage of at fault collisions will be relatively small by the time these systems reach the collision rate of human drivers.
 
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daniel

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May 7, 2009
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Why do you assert this? 3x is a massive improvement compared to humans .. do you have any studies to back up these assertions? I would think a car that was "twice as safe" would be pretty impressive (though quite how you would measure that is not clear to me).

I base my assertion on the general reluctance of people to accept change. Personally, I would upgrade my Tesla to FSD (or trade it in for a newer model with FSD) if safety was equal to a human driver. Here in TMC we're all big boosters of FSD in one form or another. Bit arguments over who is closer, but we all think it's a good idea. I don't think that very many of my friends would accept a self-driving car at all. 10X better than human (one-tenth as many accidents, injuries, deaths) would, I believe, convince them.

This is my opinion. There's obviously no way to know until it happens.

The last number I remember seeing is 36,000 traffic deaths per year in the U.S. Getting that down to 18,000 would be significant, but probably not enough to assuage public fear of SkyNet or a James Bond villain taking over their car remotely. Get it down to 3,600 per year and I think most people would see the advantages, though some never will, just as some people are afraid of a 5G microchip in the covid vaccines.
 
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diplomat33

Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Aug 3, 2017
8,389
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Terre Haute, IN USA
Dirty Tesla, who is a well-known Tesla youtuber and FSD Beta tester, seems to be saying that he does not think that Tesla ever really promised L5 or robotaxis and they will be content with releasing L2 FSD beta because that is the last feature on the website that needs to be delivered:

For what Tesla wants to achieve, I don't think they need anymore cameras. What do they want to achieve? They want your car to do city streets driving which is what my car can do right now. They want to roll that out to everyone. Is my car L5? No. Is my car L4? No. Is my car L3? No. But they never said that on their website. If you look at the Full Self-Driving description, the last bullet point they have on there is city streets driving. That's exactly what it says. Let me go to the website so I don't misread this. But in my opinion, here's what's going to happen. Once they release FSD Beta, I don't know what else to call, we should start calling it "city streets" or something, but once they release "city streets" where your car can potentially get you from point A to point B with zero interventions... "Autosteer on city streets" that's the last bullet point in this list of FSD capability...once they release "autosteer on city streets", meaning your car can do what my car can do right now, what's going to happen, that's it. They have fulfilled what they said. I think that is what they are aiming for. So for that goal, I don't think they need anymore cameras. When you buy FSD, they don't say anything about robotaxis on the website, despite what Elon said. I still hope that's coming.


I know this is a hot button issue but if he is right, I can see people getting pissed. The fact is that Elon has promised robotaxis and L5. You can't just now say, after 5 years: "oh yeah, the ceo lied, don't worry about it, you paid $10k for L2 "city streets driving."
 

Knightshade

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Jul 31, 2017
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They are not all mediocre. Some are pretty decent. For all-around driving, Tesla's L2 system is IMHO currently the best. For geofenced highways, not so much.

No, even then.


Fords system can't handle a curve.

The only other "good" highway-geofence system is from Caddy.

And theirs works not just on far fewer roads- but does a lot less (especially the version they installed the first several years).

Also- price out a base model of any of the cars they offer it on.

Now price the same vehicle in the cheapest config you can actually get Super Cruise.

It's $15,000-$25,000 more.

Plus after I think 3 or 5 years, a monthly fee on top.

And still does less than Teslas system can.
 

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
13,163
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NC
Dirty Tesla, who is a well-known Tesla youtuber and FSD Beta tester, seems to be saying that he does not think that Tesla ever really promised L5 or robotaxis and they will be content with releasing L2 FSD beta because that is the last feature on the website that needs to be delivered:


I know this is a hot button issue but if he is right, I can see people getting pissed. The fact is that Elon has promised robotaxis and L5. You can't just now say, after 5 years: "oh yeah, the ceo lied, don't worry about it, you paid $10k for L2 "city streets driving."



Well, for folks who bought after ~March 2019, he IS right, as I've pointed out here since... well... roughly April 2019 :)

The earlier buyers are owed at least L4 (with a pretty wide ODD)
 

daktari

Member
Jan 21, 2017
935
1,101
Norway
No, even then.


Fords system can't handle a curve.

The only other "good" highway-geofence system is from Caddy.

And theirs works not just on far fewer roads- but does a lot less (especially the version they installed the first several years).

Also- price out a base model of any of the cars they offer it on.

Now price the same vehicle in the cheapest config you can actually get Super Cruise.

It's $15,000-$25,000 more.

Plus after I think 3 or 5 years, a monthly fee on top.

And still does less than Teslas system can.
VW ID.4's Travel Assist is a great system also. On par with AP2. You should try it.
 

Knightshade

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Jul 31, 2017
13,163
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VW ID.4's Travel Assist is a great system also. On par with AP2. You should try it.


To my knowledge Travel Assist is comparable to basic (free) Autopilot-- not the more advanced stuff Tesla offers on highways with their better packages (no lane changes, no following route, no handling highway interchanges, etc).


Seems to confirm- though it mentions the VW may disengage without notice, which....isn't great. Oddly the guy in the video considers this a "feature" because you REALLY have to be paying a lot of attention since you never know when the car will just stop steering for you.

Does seem better than Fords garbage though- and kudos for them not charging up tens of thousands of bucks in forced optioning to get it like GM :)
 

drtimhill

Active Member
Apr 25, 2019
1,999
2,622
Seattle
Seems to confirm- though it mentions the VW may disengage without notice, which....isn't great. Oddly the guy in the video considers this a "feature" because you REALLY have to be paying a lot of attention since you never know when the car will just stop steering for you.
Yes I noticed that too .. any people accuse Tesla of having fan boys!
 

Dan D.

Member
Dec 7, 2020
807
999
Vancouver, BC
VW ID.4's Travel Assist is a great system also. On par with AP2. You should try it.

Seems to confirm- though it mentions the VW may disengage without notice, which....isn't great. Oddly the guy in the video considers this a "feature" because you REALLY have to be paying a lot of attention since you never know when the car will just stop steering for you.

Does seem better than Fords garbage though- and kudos for them not charging up tens of thousands of bucks in forced optioning to get it like GM :)
Goes to show that no manufacturer has the monopoly on crappy AP systems. A Level 2 system does not need to be perfect, but IMO they should not fail at the most dangerous time, like mid-corner when a max steering angle has been reached.

However I suppose a graceful-exit AP is really a Level 3 system isn't it
 
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daktari

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Jan 21, 2017
935
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Norway
Goes to show that no manufacturer has the monopoly on crappy AP systems. A Level 2 system does not need to be perfect, but IMO they should not fail at the most dangerous time, like mid-corner when a max steering angle has been reached.

However I suppose a graceful-exit AP is really a Level 3 system isn't it
I think you should look at it as a safety feature more than a problem. TravelAssist blends you and the car together in a completely different way than Autopilot. Autopilot is binary, you or the car, never both at the same time, like some wannabe level 3/4.

TravelAssist is very different, and you will drive together like a real level 2 system. You correct the car, no protest, all smooth, system always engaged. But you really pay attention, you drive WITH the car.

Look at my I-pace video back from 2018, I was not too happy coming straight from Tesla, but now 3 cars and 3 years later I prefer those.

AutoPilot is designed as a wannabe level 4 that is only level 2 if you understand. It is designed for the driver NOT to pay attention, but one needs to as much as the others because the capabilities are lacking.
 
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Dan D.

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Dec 7, 2020
807
999
Vancouver, BC
I think you should look at it as a safety feature more than a problem. TravelAssist blends you and the car together in a completely different way than Autopilot. Autopilot is binary, you or the car, never both at the same time, like some wannabe level 3/4.

TravelAssist is very different, and you will drive together like a real level 2 system. You correct the car, no protest, all smooth, system always engaged. But you really pay attention, you drive WITH the car.

Look at my I-pace video back from 2018, I was not too happy coming straight from Tesla, but now 3 cars and 3 years later I prefer those.

AutoPilot is designed as a wannabe level 4 that is only level 2 if you understand. It is designed for the driver NOT to pay attention, but one needs to as much as the others because the capabilities are lacking.
Yes, the TravelAssist system is there to help the driver rather than be the driver. Still, it can control steering and speed thus a driver's attention can wander, possibly you could go to sleep with your hands on the wheel. Then when it disconnects you're just as screwed. Such is the curse of ADAS.
 

daktari

Member
Jan 21, 2017
935
1,101
Norway
Yes, the TravelAssist system is there to help the driver rather than be the driver. Still, it can control steering and speed thus a driver's attention can wander, possibly you could go to sleep with your hands on the wheel. Then when it disconnects you're just as screwed. Such is the curse of ADAS.
Yes, well it is similar to ordinary driving I would say. Because anyone who knows the system limitations will take the precautions. AP will also make mistakes at places where TravelAssist disables.
 

daniel

Well-Known Member
May 7, 2009
5,091
4,213
Kihei, HI
I think you should look at it as a safety feature more than a problem. TravelAssist blends you and the car together in a completely different way than Autopilot. Autopilot is binary, you or the car, never both at the same time, like some wannabe level 3/4.

TravelAssist is very different, and you will drive together like a real level 2 system. You correct the car, no protest, all smooth, system always engaged. But you really pay attention, you drive WITH the car.

Look at my I-pace video back from 2018, I was not too happy coming straight from Tesla, but now 3 cars and 3 years later I prefer those.

AutoPilot is designed as a wannabe level 4 that is only level 2 if you understand. It is designed for the driver NOT to pay attention, but one needs to as much as the others because the capabilities are lacking.

But I don't want to drive the car when the car is driving. I am alert at all times because that's what Level 2 is: As the driver I am fully responsible for whatever the car does. But not having to steer the car (as long as I'm driving in a lane on the highway) allows me to devote all my attention to safety, while being much more relaxing than when I have to steer the car. I've never used any driver assist systems in any other car, other than old-style (dumb) cruise control. So I don't know what they're like. But I love that my car can do the driving, under suitable conditions.

It's not "wannabe level 3 or 4." It's Level 2: It does all the driving, where appropriate, and I take over where it's not appropriate for the car to drive.
 

Dan D.

Member
Dec 7, 2020
807
999
Vancouver, BC
Yes, well it is similar to ordinary driving I would say. Because anyone who knows the system limitations will take the precautions. AP will also make mistakes at places where TravelAssist disables.
Oh I'm with you on liking TravelAssist. It's limited in scope and highway location but does not strive to be more than assist - at this point. It's simple enough that people might not get too overawed and think it can drive entirely for them.

Tesla's AP tries to be too much. Ford's system does not impress me at all.
 
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Knightshade

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Jul 31, 2017
13,163
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But I don't want to drive the car when the car is driving. I am alert at all times because that's what Level 2 is: As the driver I am fully responsible for whatever the car does. But not having to steer the car (as long as I'm driving in a lane on the highway) allows me to devote all my attention to safety, while being much more relaxing than when I have to steer the car. I've never used any driver assist systems in any other car, other than old-style (dumb) cruise control. So I don't know what they're like. But I love that my car can do the driving, under suitable conditions.

It's not "wannabe level 3 or 4." It's Level 2: It does all the driving, where appropriate, and I take over where it's not appropriate for the car to drive.


FWIW I've used the lane assist on other brands (in a 2020 Kia a relative had just a few weeks ago for example)

It also does that garbage "system might just give up and turn off without telling you at any time" thing the VW one appears to do. It was AWFUL.

You got a choice:

A) Keep your eyes on the dash display so you'll be able to notice when the green lane lines turn off as lane keeping decides to just stop being on- in which case you're NOT watching the road and other cars

or

B) Watch the road and other cars, and only discover the system turned itself off when you begin to drift out of your lane




The mental gymnastics required to find that "better" than Teslas system where it'll TELL YOU when you need to do something are...remarkable.
 
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DarkandStormy

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Apr 16, 2021
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The Tesla Team October 19, 2016

We are excited to announce that, as of today, all Tesla vehicles produced in our factory – including Model 3 – will have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver.


According to a new report from Korea, Tesla is currently in talks with Samsung Electronics to produce its next-gen Full Self-Driving chip.

The new chip is expected to first launch in the Tesla Cybertruck next year.

Back in 2016, Tesla announced that all its vehicles going forward will be produced with all the hardware necessary to achieve full self-driving capability with future software updates.

It turned out that Tesla was wrong about that.
 

Knightshade

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Jul 31, 2017
13,163
21,818
NC
Well, so far anybody who actually purchased FSD has paid $0.00 for any needed HW upgrades to be swapped in... as long as that remains true for HW4 I don't see any issue.
 

mark95476

Active Member
Jun 21, 2020
1,833
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Bay Area CA
I was kind of holding out hope Tesla would push FSD to HW4, but that's looking increasing unlikely. I've more or less accepted that I'll be paying out pocket if I want HW4 in my Model Y.

Well, so far anybody who actually purchased FSD has paid $0.00 for any needed HW upgrades to be swapped in... as long as that remains true for HW4 I don't see any issue.
 
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Terminator857

Member
Aug 5, 2019
439
450
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I was kind of holding out hope Tesla would push FSD to HW4, but that's looking increasing unlikely. I've more or less accepted that I'll be paying out pocket if I want HW4 in my Model Y.
I thinking we won't be able to upgrade to full HW4 even if we pay. Suspect it will include 12 camera configuration or other similar major change. Perhaps can upgrade the computer though.
 

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