Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

FSD Timeline Promises (summary)

Scotty7

Member
Sep 22, 2019
6
5
United Kingdom
if we end up getting HW4 replacements for our HW3 computers I think that would be a big admittance of failure. HW3 would’ve served essentially no purpose, other than displaying bins, and Tesla would’ve spent millions replacing them in thousands of cars.

I feel a looming sense that whatever ‘the-button’ fsd evolves into will quickly become feature-complete by Tesla’s arbitrary standards. They’ll tell us their obligation is fulfilled to past fsd-buyers and only HW4 and beyond will progress past level 2. the only evidence I have against this is that every Cybertruck and roadster we’ve seen so far has a near-identical camera layout to what we have in current cars. That’s possibly done on purpose to avoid commotion.
 

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
12,861
19,099
NC
I thinking we won't be able to upgrade to full HW4 even if we pay. Suspect it will include 12 camera configuration or other similar major change. Perhaps can upgrade the computer though.

Only info we have today is Elon said it'd use better cameras- he didn't say more cameras. No reason they couldn't upgrade existing ones.

(Honestly even adding a couple wouldn't be THAT hard, but at that point it'd come down to a cost benefit analysis of upgrade costs and goodwill value versus refunding buyers they can't deliver promised features to)



if we end up getting HW4 replacements for our HW3 computers I think that would be a big admittance of failure. HW3 would’ve served essentially no purpose, other than displaying bins, and Tesla would’ve spent millions replacing them in thousands of cars.


FWIW it's entirely possible they can run the full FSD stack on HW3... just not redundantly.

Meaning they could offer it at L2 no problem-(and even 3 since it'd still require a human being there if the computer failed) but they'd need to swap HW4 in for anyone who paid for L4+


I feel a looming sense that whatever ‘the-button’ fsd evolves into will quickly become feature-complete by Tesla’s arbitrary standards. They’ll tell us their obligation is fulfilled to past fsd-buyers and only HW4 and beyond will progress past level 2. the only evidence I have against this is that every Cybertruck and roadster we’ve seen so far has a near-identical camera layout to what we have in current cars. That’s possibly done on purpose to avoid commotion.


That dives down the rabbit hole of pre/post March 2019 buyers :)
 

daniel

Well-Known Member
May 7, 2009
5,034
3,870
Kihei, HI
Well, so far anybody who actually purchased FSD has paid $0.00 for any needed HW upgrades to be swapped in... as long as that remains true for HW4 I don't see any issue.

This is true. And if Tesla actually does achieve full and true FSD during the normal expected lifetime of the cars on which it was paid for, and if Tesla does upgrade those cars with all necessary hardware, then it will have fulfilled its obligation. If, however, those cars age out before true and full FSD becomes available, or if it turns out that it requires hardware that Tesla is not able to retrofit into those cars, then Tesla will have failed to fulfill its promises.

I am of the opinion that the hardware needed for true and full FSD will not be possible to retrofit into the present generation of cars, and that FSD won't even be available before these cars have aged out of the fleet. At which point Tesla could partially redeem itself by refunding the full amount people paid for FSD. It would have been better if Tesla had not promised a technology that did not yet exist, merely on the hope that they could develop it.
 

daniel

Well-Known Member
May 7, 2009
5,034
3,870
Kihei, HI
Why would I? They'd have nothing to do with the discussion of getting free HW upgrades in existing vehicles that paid for FSD.

The FSD purchase is tied to the vehicle, not the owner.

The promise was "Your car will be able to drive itself without anybody in it." There is an implied promise that this will happen within the time one expects to own the car. There are people who have been waiting five years and still have nothing but L2 City. And no driverless software yet in sight. A quick google search says that on average people keep new cars for six years. A lot of folks won't get what they paid for.

(I got what I paid for: EAP, which I bought because it existed, and it's the best thing since sliced bread. As someone else --sorry, I don't remember who-- called it: Supervised Self-Driving. And I'll amend that to Supervised Highway Self-Driving since EAP is really not good for city driving.)

Best car on the road! Too bad Elon has to take money from people on a promise he cannot keep.
 

Knightshade

Well-Known Member
Jul 31, 2017
12,861
19,099
NC
The promise was "Your car will be able to drive itself without anybody in it." There is an implied promise that this will happen within the time one expects to own the car.


Sure. I think there's a perfectly reasonable (and legally useful) argument to be made there.


But even if there is, the remedy would be a refund (potentially with interest or penalties)- not "Let me transfer to another car"

We're also not quite there yet.


There are people who have been waiting five years


...well, almost 5.... Oct 19th 2016 is 5 years from when they announced it as available for purchase.... so close enough-- still a bit shy of the average length of new car ownership though.



And no driverless software yet in sight.

Depends on who you ask.

Folks in this section run the gammut from:

driverless is unpossible!
to
Robotaxis coming this year!


I suspect it's somewhere in between myself :)


A quick google search says that on average people keep new cars for six years. A lot of folks won't get what they paid for.

I'll be moderately surprised if nobody has filed a suit over this exact thing once the oldest FSD cars get beyond average age. As I say I certainly think there's a reasonable case to be made at least on this.

Course those are $3000 refunds, not 10k... (plus at least interest)


(I got what I paid for: EAP, which I bought because it existed, and it's the best thing since sliced bread. As someone else --sorry, I don't remember who-- called it: Supervised Self-Driving. And I'll amend that to Supervised Highway Self-Driving since EAP is really not good for city driving.)

I bought EAP too of course, pre-req for FSD.

Mainly I bought FSD based on 3 things:

The promise it'd cost more later (excepting that weird 2 week sale in 2019 that's been true)
and
I knew I'd get any needed HW upgrades free (which has also proved true)
and
I believed the system would be capable of at least L3 highway. I still do, though obviously the SW isn't there yet. I think if vision-only solves the stopped-partly-in-lane issue then the SW IS probably there though. They technically owe me L4 almost everywhere, but I'd be perfectly happy with l3 highway.


I had my last car for 11 years (a Lexus IS350, purchased new)- so I've got a bit of time yet. And not like the last 18 months have had a lot of driving in em anyway.



Best car on the road! Too bad Elon has to take money from people on a promise he cannot keep.


The most legally relevant question would be did he believe he could keep it when he made it?

If so the most he's on the hook for is that 3k I mentioned (plus interest) if he ends up finding he can't deliver.

If subpoenas found internal docs showing another story it might be a different situation.
 

Products we're discussing on TMC...

About Us

Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.

Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


SUPPORT TMC
Top