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FSD v9.0 in Australia is just a con isn't it?

cafz

Member
Jul 17, 2020
477
453
Australia
If for whatever reason the price of the apple goes to 10c, you make extra money ($1.40).
If the price of the apple falls under the strike price ($1) then the holder of the call just chooses not to exercise the option and lets it lapse. The person who sold the call option makes a profit of the 50c they sold the option for.
 

GrimRe

Member
Aug 18, 2019
248
245
Sydney, Australia
Can’t see it happening based on the slow progress over the past few years. Tesla’s with FSD seem to stay around the longest on Carsales with the owners perhaps having to accept a discount to move it in the end . Evaluating historical performance is valid hence those who have been around longer with Tesla’s can have warranted skepticism toward the CEO’s promises and expectations. We won’t see L4 in Aus in current Tesla’s so any notion of locked in FSD value at $10k is wishful thinking at best.
I think we’ll get L2 ADAS that’s worth the $10k within 3 years. By that point it’ll cost even more and we’ll be having the same discussion again but at least people will be happy to pay me $$$ for FSD as opposed to now where it’s valued at $0 second hand
 

Stratman

Member
Sep 17, 2018
236
247
Melbourne Australia
I think we’ll get L2 ADAS that’s worth the $10k within 3 years. By that point it’ll cost even more and we’ll be having the same discussion again but at least people will be happy to pay me $$$ for FSD as opposed to now where it’s valued at $0 second hand
Fair enough, let’s revisit this thread in 3 years and I’ll be happy to wipe some egg of my face if warranted 😁
 
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Brissienew

Member
Dec 9, 2014
382
139
Brisbane, Queensland
I read here a couple of years ago when Telsa jacked up the price of FSD from circa $7k to $10k, some jumped in to buy FSD as they thought FSD will be worth much more in the near future as the cars will be able to be rented out as Robotaxis etc.

I doubt that will ever happen. How much is FSD worth on a second hand car now? I for one wouldn't; pay anything for it.
 
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Candleflame

Active Member
Mar 9, 2015
3,215
1,500
QLD, Australia
If the car really does have 400,000 under it’s belt when you go to sell it, the utility gained by having FSD during those 400,000kms would be worth the $10k easily. It’s not like you are getting absolutely nothing of value for $10k. NoAP and a Auto lane change over 400,000km of driving would be a god send.


A call option means you buy the opportunity to retain an increase in value for a fixed price.

if I bet you that the price of an apple that is currently $1 goes to $2 next year, you may sell me a contract that says I can buy an apple from you for $1 in a years time no matter what the market price is.

We may agree that this agreement has a price of 50c that I pay right now to you. Therefore if the price of an apple goes to $1.50 I break even and if it goes to $5 I make a load of money ($3.50) as you are forced to sell me an apple that costs $5 for $1 as per our agreement. If for whatever reason the price of the apple goes to 10c, you make extra money ($1.40). It’s a risk that’s proportional to time and expected return hence the price of the contract is highly variable.

For FSD, you are effectively betting that the value of this option increase over time and by purchasing it now, you are effectively fixing your cost and creating an unlimited upside (FSD could go up to any price and you retain all of it) and a fixed downside (can’t cost you more than what you paid for it). The expiry date instead of being a fixed 1yr term like in the apple example is whenever you need to sell your car which is another variable to consider. If you don’t need to sell for many years, the expected return is higher and therefore risk is lower, if it’s only a few years it’s a much higher risk that the value isn’t fully realised yet.

but you didnt gain anything. FSD really doesnt do.... anything useful at the moment. summon is just a partytrick and afaik traffic light stopping is annoying.
 

paulp

Active Member
Jul 23, 2015
3,037
1,421
Adelaide, Australia
but you didnt gain anything. FSD really doesnt do.... anything useful at the moment. summon is just a partytrick and afaik traffic light stopping is annoying.
But FSD is the real party trick. A very clever ploy by tesla to extract a lot of cash from people who think its going to make them money. At the start Musk made comments like when you buy a tesla its the last car you’ll ever need to buy because it improves with age due to software enhancements…we all know how that has worked out, and yet so many still think the current car is ’the one’.
 
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Candleflame

Active Member
Mar 9, 2015
3,215
1,500
QLD, Australia
But FSD is the real party trick. A very clever ploy by tesla to extract a lot of cash from people who think its going to make them money. At the start Musk made comments like when you buy a tesla its the last car you’ll ever need to buy because it improves with age due to software enhancements…we all know how that has worked out, and yet so many still think the current car is ’the one’.

the cars do improve for the most part but people are forking out an extraordinary amount of money to see nothing in return. and then your car has 250k km+ on and is essentially ready to become a classic or retired at which point you got all the FSD for nothing.
 
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Pixor

Member
Jul 15, 2017
36
35
Sydney, Australia
Every car manufacturer is working on their own FSD equivalent. Just like every feature that has distinguished a leader in the past, the other manufacturers will replicate it and it will become a standard feature that they all need to compete. I cannot see any way that FSD becomes more expensive in the future, only less. On top of that, it doesn’t actually do anything useful in a way that can be relied upon yet.

Don’t get me wrong, the fact it can do any of the things it can in YouTube videos is very impressive, but it is nowhere near being a system that is safer and more reliable than a person, which is what we were pitched.
 

RobDickinson

Active Member
Jun 23, 2019
1,209
2,570
New Zealand
Theres been $50bn plus spent on self driving between waymo, intel/mobile eye, mercedes, tesla, toyota, nvidia etc. its a huge potential market and has massive value.
 

paulp

Active Member
Jul 23, 2015
3,037
1,421
Adelaide, Australia
Theres been $50bn plus spent on self driving between waymo, intel/mobile eye, mercedes, tesla, toyota, nvidia etc. its a huge potential market and has massive value.
Once every manufacturer provides it there is no additional value. Its why manufacturers can no longer charge a premium for basic functionality like cruise control or electric windows.
 
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GrimRe

Member
Aug 18, 2019
248
245
Sydney, Australia
Companies are still charging a significant premium for adaptive cruise control...
Exactly.

All the comments poo-pooing FSD option are basically doing so because of Elon's style of over-promising and under delivering on City Streets feature. If you take a step back and simply look at what you receive for the $10k right now, for many people myself included, its well worth the money. "Technology Packages" in by other auto makers are between $2k and $15k and none of them hold a candle to Navigate on AutoPilot, Lane Change, Traffic Light/stop sign control let alone City Streets / FSD v9/10/11 (whenever we do finally get it)
 
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ShockOnT

⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️
Jun 26, 2016
3,406
3,099
Sydney
Back when I got my car in 2016 there was a certain sense of paying for these fantasy features to support this fledgling, fragile little startup called TSLA.
But as for value, FSD is basically nothing more than a donation to the cause. I doubt it will ever have value, because once the FSD problem is "solved" it essentially costs nothing to implement in any car. Cameras and chips are cheap, and software can be free.
We might all be self-installing "OpenFSD" one day.
 
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stopcrazypp

Well-Known Member
Dec 8, 2007
10,824
5,756
Back when I got my car in 2016 there was a certain sense of paying for these fantasy features to support this fledgling, fragile little startup called TSLA.
But as for value, FSD is basically nothing more than a donation to the cause. I doubt it will ever have value, because once the FSD problem is "solved" it essentially costs nothing to implement in any car. Cameras and chips are cheap, and software can be free.
We might all be self-installing "OpenFSD" one day.
That's assuming Tesla (or other makers) open sources their software and makes it available for everyone to use. They definitely aren't doing that. They don't even do that for L2 features like ACC or lane keeping. Companies are still charging a significant premium for those features, and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

A side point is if you look at the details, the software is heavily tuned to the current sensors (which is why Tesla haven't been constantly making major changes to the sensors). Waymo touched on this also, it's not an easy task to generalize the data collected on older sensors, and that may not necessarily be the goal. So just taking Tesla's software and slapping it on another car isn't going to work.
 

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