FSD v9.0 in Australia is just a con isn't it?

[paulp]

>>TLDR: By the time FSD becomes a reality, it'll be cheaper to hire than own.<<

Ignoring the wishful thinking before the comma <g> it's cheaper by far even now for most people to hire a taxi/rent for the day - but we don't. I can't see that changing.

Thats because people have their stuff in their car, and ultimately dont want to hang around waiting for a car to arrive.
As for FSD becoming reality, well it already is. Its an admitted marketting term (by tesla) designed to extract additional cash for tesla cars. Its working as intended. It promised full self driving under certain conditions such as traffic lights and freeway off ramps. (Refer website for what it will give you). You wont find anywhere on the website that FSD payment will eventually offer you autonomy or a robotaxi.

 

[ZTrekus]

Thats because people have their stuff in their car, and ultimately dont want to hang around waiting for a car to arrive.
As for FSD becoming reality, well it already is. Its an admitted marketting term (by tesla) designed to extract additional cash for tesla cars. Its working as intended. It promised full self driving under certain conditions such as traffic lights and freeway off ramps. (Refer website for what it will give you). You wont find anywhere on the website that FSD payment will eventually offer you autonomy or a robotaxi.

Then shouldn't they call it PSD? Partial self driving?

Otherwise they are just.... You know.... Full of it

 

[Wol747]

I get the impression that only now are the AI people at Tesla beginning to understand just how difficult the real world actually is - you know, the reality that we flawed human drivers negotiate daily without a thought.
They’ve cracked the “easy” bits - and that’s recognising that the “easy” bits are incredibly challenging - but I can’t see FSD ever being released in most countries without the prefix “Beta”, with all the conditions that go with it.
I’ve just watched one video of a v9 Beta drive of about ten minutes which had at least four interventions to avoid collisions when the car suddenly lunged towards oncoming traffic. I’ve not seen that behaviour in previous builds, so perhaps a fault in the car, but…..

 

[RobDickinson]

IMO they have been building a NN training/labelling system, an entire toolkit for software 2.0, and its till a work in progress, massive applications outside of driving too.

 

[paulp]

Then shouldn't they call it PSD? Partial self driving?

Otherwise they are just.... You know.... Full of it

whenever you read about anything for sale, its being marketted. Its always a case of buyer beware and look past the words to see what is really on offer. Have a look at tesla’s website. Look at what is really being promised for FSD, as opposed to what everyone thinks is being promised. Indeed tesla could describe it as full autonomous driving followed by a description of what will be provided. Not their fault if people jump to conclusions. Tesla have always been aspirational in their approach.
If you read the promise on what you will get for FSD on the website, which you have to use to order, its been delivered in full.

 

[Stratman]

IMO they have been building a NN training/labelling system, an entire toolkit for software 2.0, and its till a work in progress, massive applications outside of driving too.

Tesla has picked the low hanging fruit with auto pilot - which is pretty good. Driving requires far more than just having things appropriately labelled. There will be more complete s/w Re-writes before they get near a solution that can be rolled out to the masses. Any promise that current Tesla’s will suddenly increase in value and become robo taxis is just not going to happen.

 

[OzVic]

Does it handle roads with variable speed limits? I don't have FSD but my Model 3LR with Autopilot does not recognise the variable speed limits on Sydney's M4, M7, M5E.

Coming home on the M1 (F3) to Newcastle and the Tesla recognises and acts upon the variable 100 zone/90 when raining limit. Detected the rain outside and put a 90 speed limit on the screen with a raindrop (and a 100 speed limit sign greyed out). Cool that it detects the rain for you and acts accordingly.

 

[paulp]

Coming home on the M1 (F3) to Newcastle and the Tesla recognises and acts upon the variable 100 zone/90 when raining limit. Detected the rain outside and put a 90 speed limit on the screen with a raindrop (and a 100 speed limit sign greyed out). Cool that it detects the rain for you and acts accordingly.

We have a new freeway in Adelaide. My car kept flashing up a 60kmh limit everytime I went under the speed sign gantries showing 80kmh (4 illuminated 80 signs). Annoyingly it also tried to slow the car down to 60 as I was in cruise control. When I hit the old road which was always 90 it showed the limit as 90. seems to me it was reading old map data perfectly whilst seeing signs but not reading them.

 

[ZTrekus]

Coming home on the M1 (F3) to Newcastle and the Tesla recognises and acts upon the variable 100 zone/90 when raining limit. Detected the rain outside and put a 90 speed limit on the screen with a raindrop (and a 100 speed limit sign greyed out). Cool that it detects the rain for you and acts accordingly.

That's amazing, I never knew it could do that

 

[atj777]

Coming home on the M1 (F3) to Newcastle and the Tesla recognises and acts upon the variable 100 zone/90 when raining limit. Detected the rain outside and put a 90 speed limit on the screen with a raindrop (and a 100 speed limit sign greyed out). Cool that it detects the rain for you and acts accordingly.

I suspect that's more map based than anything else. It is not recognising the signs as such (because the signs their don't change) but has merely been programmed for that stretch of road. Pretty easy to do to seeing as that variable limit has been in place for many, many years.

I was talking about illuminated signs that can change for any reason. For example, the people that manage the M7 really don't understand how quickly cars can slow down and so will often drop the speed limit from 100 to 80 to 60 to 40 multiple kilometres from a "problem" - which may be a broken down car in an emergency bay.

Further, the maps are so out of date that if that zone was updated, the system probably wouldn't act any differently.

 

[Wol747]

We have a new freeway in Adelaide. My car kept flashing up a 60kmh limit everytime I went under the speed sign gantries showing 80kmh (4 illuminated 80 signs). Annoyingly it also tried to slow the car down to 60 as I was in cruise control. When I hit the old road which was always 90 it showed the limit as 90. seems to me it was reading old map data perfectly whilst seeing signs but not reading them.

Possibly the 80 was read as 60 because of the difference in sampling rate and the refresh rate on the signs. It's something that has to be addressed apparently.

 

[OzVic]

That's amazing, I never knew it could do that

If anyone's interested, here's the pic. (yes, I'm speeding)

 

[GrimRe]

Thats because people have their stuff in their car, and ultimately dont want to hang around waiting for a car to arrive.
As for FSD becoming reality, well it already is. Its an admitted marketting term (by tesla) designed to extract additional cash for tesla cars. Its working as intended. It promised full self driving under certain conditions such as traffic lights and freeway off ramps. (Refer website for what it will give you). You wont find anywhere on the website that FSD payment will eventually offer you autonomy or a robotaxi.

All true.

The way you frame it however you make it sound like there is some shadiness going on.

In reality the FSD package is the best ADAS system by far and is priced as such.

What you also fail to mention is that the $10,000 price tag gives you a free call option on the progress of Autonomy.

If FSD package does end up being pretty much L4 by the time you sell the car, be that v10, v11, v12 etc it will attract an enormous premium second hand as a purchaser would need to either forgo this capability on their Tesla or pay the brand new retail price of $15k,$20k,$30k (whatever it ends up being) or subscribe at $300+ per month. Therefore, cars with FSD capability will retain a higher residual value than those who don't. This difference in second sale price may encompass part, all of, or exceed the original purchase price of FSD. The $10k purchase gives you the call option to capture this price difference of Non-FSD second-hand sale price and FSD-enabled second-hand sale price.

People who purchased this call option in 2016,2017,2018,2019 have more or less lost as its unlikely that they will see residual value from the FSD purchase nor be able to use L4 functionality. However, that doesn't mean that everyone buying it in 2020,2021 and beyond will necessarily end up in the same fate. Reasoning by analogy or past performance is a fools errand. If you look at the progress being made right now in deep learning and machine vision, its becoming increasingly more likely that at some point in the future FSD will have L4 capability. When this happens is anyone's guess but it does at least appear the path Tesla are on is the winning approach.

 

[Candleflame]

All true.

The way you frame it however you make it sound like there is some shadiness going on.

In reality the FSD package is the best ADAS system by far and is priced as such.

What you also fail to mention is that the $10,000 price tag gives you a free call option on the progress of Autonomy.

If FSD package does end up being pretty much L4 by the time you sell the car, be that v10, v11, v12 etc it will attract an enormous premium second hand as a purchaser would need to either forgo this capability on their Tesla or pay the brand new retail price of $15k,$20k,$30k (whatever it ends up being) or subscribe at $300+ per month. Therefore, cars with FSD capability will retain a higher residual value than those who don't. This difference in second sale price may encompass part, all of, or exceed the original purchase price of FSD. The $10k purchase gives you the call option to capture this price difference of Non-FSD second-hand sale price and FSD-enabled second-hand sale price.

People who purchased this call option in 2016,2017,2018,2019 have more or less lost as its unlikely that they will see residual value from the FSD purchase nor be able to use L4 functionality. However, that doesn't mean that everyone buying it in 2020,2021 and beyond will necessarily end up in the same fate. Reasoning by analogy or past performance is a fools errand. If you look at the progress being made right now in deep learning and machine vision, its becoming increasingly more likely that at some point in the future FSD will have L4 capability. When this happens is anyone's guess but it does at least appear the path Tesla are on is the winning approach.

if the car doesnt have 400k kms by the time you want to sell it and is worth less than FSD.

 

[Wol747]

>>What you also fail to mention is that the $10,000 price tag gives you a free call option on the progress of Autonomy.<<

Not quite sure what you mean by that?

 

[GrimRe]

if the car doesnt have 400k kms by the time you want to sell it and is worth less than FSD.

If the car really does have 400,000 under it’s belt when you go to sell it, the utility gained by having FSD during those 400,000kms would be worth the $10k easily. It’s not like you are getting absolutely nothing of value for $10k. NoAP and a Auto lane change over 400,000km of driving would be a god send.

>>What you also fail to mention is that the $10,000 price tag gives you a free call option on the progress of Autonomy.<<

Not quite sure what you mean by that?

A call option means you buy the opportunity to retain an increase in value for a fixed price.

if I bet you that the price of an apple that is currently $1 goes to $2 next year, you may sell me a contract that says I can buy an apple from you for $1 in a years time no matter what the market price is.

We may agree that this agreement has a price of 50c that I pay right now to you. Therefore if the price of an apple goes to $1.50 I break even and if it goes to $5 I make a load of money ($3.50) as you are forced to sell me an apple that costs $5 for $1 as per our agreement. If for whatever reason the price of the apple goes to 10c, you make extra money ($1.40). It’s a risk that’s proportional to time and expected return hence the price of the contract is highly variable.

For FSD, you are effectively betting that the value of this option increase over time and by purchasing it now, you are effectively fixing your cost and creating an unlimited upside (FSD could go up to any price and you retain all of it) and a fixed downside (can’t cost you more than what you paid for it). The expiry date instead of being a fixed 1yr term like in the apple example is whenever you need to sell your car which is another variable to consider. If you don’t need to sell for many years, the expected return is higher and therefore risk is lower, if it’s only a few years it’s a much higher risk that the value isn’t fully realised yet.

 

[Rockford]

If you buy the FSD, and sell the car after 5 years and it still hasn't been implemented do you get a refund or does the FSD go with the car?

 

[paulp]

If you buy the FSD, and sell the car after 5 years and it still hasn't been implemented do you get a refund or does the FSD go with the car?

No you do not get a refund and cannot transfer it to another tesla.

 

[Wol747]

>>A call option means you buy the opportunity to retain an increase in value for a fixed price.<<

I didn't realise you were using investment terms - I thought there was some Tesla contract that I didn't know about!

 

[Stratman]

All true.

The way you frame it however you make it sound like there is some shadiness going on.

In reality the FSD package is the best ADAS system by far and is priced as such.

What you also fail to mention is that the $10,000 price tag gives you a free call option on the progress of Autonomy.

If FSD package does end up being pretty much L4 by the time you sell the car, be that v10, v11, v12 etc it will attract an enormous premium second hand as a purchaser would need to either forgo this capability on their Tesla or pay the brand new retail price of $15k,$20k,$30k (whatever it ends up being) or subscribe at $300+ per month. Therefore, cars with FSD capability will retain a higher residual value than those who don't. This difference in second sale price may encompass part, all of, or exceed the original purchase price of FSD. The $10k purchase gives you the call option to capture this price difference of Non-FSD second-hand sale price and FSD-enabled second-hand sale price.

People who purchased this call option in 2016,2017,2018,2019 have more or less lost as its unlikely that they will see residual value from the FSD purchase nor be able to use L4 functionality. However, that doesn't mean that everyone buying it in 2020,2021 and beyond will necessarily end up in the same fate. Reasoning by analogy or past performance is a fools errand. If you look at the progress being made right now in deep learning and machine vision, its becoming increasingly more likely that at some point in the future FSD will have L4 capability. When this happens is anyone's guess but it does at least appear the path Tesla are on is the winning approach.

Can’t see it happening based on the slow progress over the past few years. Tesla’s with FSD seem to stay around the longest on Carsales with the owners perhaps having to accept a discount to move it in the end . Evaluating historical performance is valid hence those who have been around longer with Tesla’s can have warranted skepticism toward the CEO’s promises and expectations. We won’t see L4 in Aus in current Tesla’s so any notion of locked in FSD value at $10k is wishful thinking at best.