FSD With Purchase Or Wait

[akang224]

Yeah- the new basic AP is nothing but autosteer within your single lane, and TACC.

Isn't this "nothing but autosteer" at least 80-90% of an average person's driving habits? Not discounting other FSD features, but I take that value of Tesla's autosteer/TACC to be far higher than just a "nothing but".

Definitely in a class above Honda's LKAS.

 

[Knightshade]

Isn't this "nothing but autosteer" at least 80-90% of an average person's driving habits? Not discounting other FSD features, but I take that value of Tesla's autosteer/TACC to be far higher than just a "nothing but".

Definitely in a class above Honda's LKAS.

It's better than most others systems for sure- but I suspect more than 10-20% of people change lanes on average

 

[akang224]

It's better than most others systems for sure- but I suspect more than 10-20% of people change lanes on average

No part of my statement inferred that only 10% to 20% of people change lanes.

 

[pdx_m3s]

I don't like the idea of spending $6k on a promised feature set to be available sometime in the future. Solving the autonomous driving problem is incredibly hard, complex, and time consuming (training the neural net is very labor intensive). I'm confident it will get there, in time, but I expect steady, slow progress. I also think that HW3 will run out of compute power before FSD can be completely implemented. I'd like to see and experience FSD prior to buying my next Tesla, which will be well into HW4 territory.

 

[Knightshade]

No part of my statement inferred that only 10% to 20% of people change lanes.

well, you said no-lane-change AP covered 80-90% of an average persons driving so from there it's just math


YMMV of course- some folks are happy to just get into the right lane and sit there forever, others change lanes constantly while driving hoping to get where they're going 20 seconds sooner...and everything in between those extremes.

 

[akang224]

well, you said no-lane-change AP covered 80-90% of an average persons driving so from there it's just math .

Please re-read my original statement. The 80-90% was indicated to be a percentage of an average person's driving habits, meaning the said average person may use the other 10-20% of his or her driving time exploring other features, or performing other driving tasks (such as switching lanes).

That's a far different assessment that saying 80%-90% of the people switch lanes, thus the remaining 10%-20% do not ever switch lanes, which sounds just as ridiculous as you had interpreted it.

It is truly YMMV depending on many variables but my original point was that you were underselling the APs core feature. That's all.

 

[cucubits]

I can imagine having to disable/enable AP with both chimes on every lane change will get annoying fast on busy multi lane highways around the city and also on longer roadtrips when there's some traffic.

On the other hand, $6k for this only... it will be a tough call. Again, I'm not impressed by the current NoA and I'm not looking fw to being their alpha tester. Other features in the FSD package which currently work reliably and make it worth it? I don't think so...

 

[pdx_m3s]

I can imagine having to disable/enable AP with both chimes on every lane change will get annoying fast on busy multi lane highways around the city and also on longer roadtrips when there's some traffic.

On the other hand, $6k for this only... it will be a tough call. Again, I'm not impressed by the current NoA and I'm not looking fw to being their alpha tester. Other features in the FSD package which currently work reliably and make it worth it? I don't think so...

Well said.

 

[claudelaval]

I love getting updates and trying out new features. If you want to enjoy the FSD feature rollout, buy it now.

You won't see FULL FSD in the life of your vehicle. Still too many roadblocks ahead. You really believe states governments will agree with that in a near future? Not me...

 

[claudelaval]

I was totally against getting FSD when I bought 2 months ago, but I'm really missing the auto lane change after 1,500 miles of AP. I'm really thinking of getting FSD just to get that. The smart summon and whatever comes next would be great too. I'm hoping for a FSD sale sometime soon!

Tesla is smart...they take away some some options that use to be with AP and put it in FSD. I'm surprise they do that. GM or Ford wouldn't surprise me but Tesla...

 

[OCR1]

Lane changing with FSD is not that great. It's like driving with your grandmother. You'd be better off disengaging AP and changing lanes yourself than waiting for the perfect scenario, at least in heavy traffic, for FSD to get around to it.

 

[Knightshade]

Lane changing with FSD is not that great. It's like driving with your grandmother. You'd be better off disengaging AP and changing lanes yourself than waiting for the perfect scenario, at least in heavy traffic, for FSD to get around to it.

How long has it been since you tried it? It got a lot quicker in the last few weeks with more recent updates.

You won't see FULL FSD in the life of your vehicle. Still too many roadblocks ahead. You really believe states governments will agree with that in a near future? Not me...

FWIW, some already have.

It's entirely legal to do L5 FSD in those states, just nobody has such a system ready to release to the public yet.

I agree some other states will likely take much longer though which is why it'd make more sense for the feds to do something in this area.

 

[pdx_m3s]

...which is why it'd make more sense for the feds to do something in this area.

If we’re ever in the position where we’re waiting on the feds to do something regarding autonomous driving, we’re f’d.

 

[Dan84]

I think I may go back on my advice of skipping FSD.

I just found out (do correct me if I'm wrong) that the basic AP sold now, without FSD, won't help even with lane changes on the highway. I was expecting it to be able to lane change - initiated by the driver signaling. If I understood correctly, this does not work with the basic AP, the driver would need to disengage autosteer, signal, move over, re-enable AP (with all the audio chimes).

If this is the case, then yes, FSD package is starting to look better, "only" for $6k now.

Yes, that would be nice feature.

Unfortunately, auto lange change also doesn’t work reliably yet.
.

 

[RDoc]

My response to these threads is always the same. Put the money into TSLA stock. If Tesla actually produces FSD or a reasonable facsimile, the price of the stock will go through the roof and you can buy it later. OTOH, if it continues to be vaporware, you still have some value in the stock.

 

[pdx_m3s]

My response to these threads is always the same. Put the money into TSLA stock. If Tesla actually produces FSD or a reasonable facsimile, the price of the stock will go through the roof and you can buy it later. OTOH, if it continues to be vaporware, you still have some value in the stock.

I have done this exact thing

 

[Knightshade]

The "buy stock instead" advice made some sense in the EAP days when paying for FSD provided literally no features at all... but today there's actual right-now functionality behind the FSD paywall you're giving up by not buying it and instead buying stock. (YMMV on how worth it to you personally those features are of course)

 

[Kognos]

There's a nugget of truth in the concept that FSD won't go up in value due to competition, but honestly I'm not convinced that's real. There's not another car out there that has the technology level that Tesla does, and even if so, it's not like you'll dump your current car and bail. So there's also a nugget of truth that as FSD improves over its current incarnation that it can go up in value. All cars with FSD - not just Tesla - would go up in value in the same way. Features add value, and they always have.

I don't necessarily have FOMA but I would like to know what the price is of FSD when it reaches end-state. In my mind an investment of $6k right now, current price, is totally worth it if the end state was, for example $10k. And then kind of a realistic expectation of where my car will be at that point. Could FSD be "real" in 3-5 years? Would I want to "test" the software until then, or would I just want a new car at that point? And honestly that cost might be much greater.

Also, do I really think that FSD features might add significant value until that point arrives? Auto-lane change is neat but largely unneeded. I have Autopilot (autosteer, autospeed, TACC version) and found that my cross country experience was awesome without NoA or lane changes. I just turned off Autopilot and changed lanes and re-engaged. No big deal. But this is just me, and other people might disagree.

These are all personal questions to each reader, but I think more relevant. Prices for features do always tend to go up, but paying for potentially appreciating features on a definitely depreciating body means that the net result might not be worth it.

I'll give it to Elon for pulling the strings of my inner geek though.

Edit: I got to thinking about this a bit more. I honestly don't think that the price of FSD will go up in and of itself, but what we may see is new features added to the FSD package. FSD as-listed right now is a specific feature set. It won't appreciate in cost. What we're being teased with is new functionality that is beyond the FSD package set that is being listed right now, potentially justifying the increase.

It's highly likely if not plausible that the AP+FSD package as it exists today might be completely viable if not lesser cost at some point down the road, but maybe in the 1-2 year future they'll try raising the price by bundling FSD with other features.

No technology fundamentally increases in cost over time unless it is a unicorn, and while Elon might treat it like a unicorn, it's definitely a green banana.

 

[Knightshade]

I don't necessarily have FOMA but I would like to know what the price is of FSD when it reaches end-state. In my mind an investment of $6k right now, current price, is totally worth it if the end state was, for example $10k.

I think any car maker who could offer L5 FSD could charge 10k and not be able to build enough cars to keep up with demand by a mile.

For a smaller company like Tesla that might even be true at a higher price.

And then kind of a realistic expectation of where my car will be at that point. Could FSD be "real" in 3-5 years? Would I want to "test" the software until then, or would I just want a new car at that point? And honestly that cost might be much greater.

That's a much much much harder question to answer.

Personally I don't think the sensor suite on current teslas can ever do L5, just too many edge cases. I think there's a decent chance they could at least do L3 (maybe 4) on highways, and maybe (lower odds) in city environments.

I think they're pretty close to L3 on highways today, so it wouldn't surprise me if HW3 and the larger NN was capable of it today.

But regulations will hold that being turned on for a good while yet is the issue there. They're not gonna try and make the car change behavior every time you cross state lines and right now regulation of >L2 systems is a huge mess of 50 different states with 50 different sets of rules.

Also, do I really think that FSD features might add significant value until that point arrives? Auto-lane change is neat but largely unneeded. I have Autopilot (autosteer, autospeed, TACC version) and found that my cross country experience was awesome without NoA or lane changes. I just turned off Autopilot and changed lanes and re-engaged. No big deal. But this is just me, and other people might disagree.

I don't think it's a huge deal- but having used NoA and auto lane change it's objectively and measurably better.

Up to each person to put a # on that.

Edit: I got to thinking about this a bit more. I honestly don't think that the price of FSD will go up in and of itself, but what we may see is new features added to the FSD package.

I mean, we've explicitly been told it's going up another $1000 in August around the time enhance summon is released.

So it's not at all unreasonable to suspect they'll raise it again when the nav-in-city and/or stop sign/stop light stuff is released later this year.

 

[cucubits]

I mean, we've explicitly been told it's going up another $1000 in August around the time enhance summon is released.

So it's not at all unreasonable to suspect they'll raise it again when the nav-in-city and/or stop sign/stop light stuff is released later this year.

It will be hilarious if enhanced summon won't work or is crap and they still raise the price as planned.

It's sad if this is the road they will take... make some more promises, flip some switches which may or may not work and slowly keep raising FSD price.

IMO people blindly paying for non-existing features are just enabling it. Hiding behind the excuse that "I'm supporting their FSD long term development" is BS.