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FSDC release guesses

Discussion in 'Model X' started by Gregkeys, Nov 21, 2016.

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When will Tesla enable FSDC

  1. December 2016

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. 1st quarter 2017 (jan-mar)

    8.1%
  3. 2nd quarter 2017 (apr-jun)

    6.5%
  4. 3rd quarter 2017 (jul-sep)

    3.2%
  5. 4th quarter 2017 (oct-dec)

    12.9%
  6. 2018

    33.9%
  7. 2019

    25.8%
  8. 5 years from now

    8.1%
  9. 10 years from now

    1.6%
  10. Never; It's a sham

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. Gregkeys

    Gregkeys Member

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    Just for fun let's do some constructive guessing on when full self driving Capability will be released.
     
  2. gearchruncher

    gearchruncher Member

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    FSDC means all sorts of different things, and even Tesla has said some of the biggest challenges are regulatory. Should we narrow the assumptions?

    1) In California
    2) Without anyone in the car at all
    3) Summoned to you using your cell phone
    4) Finding a parking space when you get out and walk away
     
  3. muleferg

    muleferg Active Member

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    Still waiting
     

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  4. Gregkeys

    Gregkeys Member

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    Hmm good points might need to do a couple polls Lols, for now let's go with 2-4 or what they have demonstrated in the 2 videos they've released.

    I'm in Washington state so im not keen to support #1 :)
     
  5. gearchruncher

    gearchruncher Member

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    So you're saying "in any state in the USA"?

    I think the regulatory hurdles there put you way behind when Tesla might have it working in one state. We've already seen states move to block self driving cars.
     
  6. Gregkeys

    Gregkeys Member

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    One thing I feel that people often fail to take into account is that past advances usually (not always) accelerate future development.

    I develop software for a living, it's always really slow to develop a product when you start from scratch because you have to build so many pieces, the more pieces you develop the faster things go.

    In other words, things often start really slow then they hit a point that velocity begins to increase exponentially.

    I can see the same thing happening here with FSDC, they have already built so many pieces of auto pilot that the velocity of future advances will come faster and faster.

    I think a theme of 2017 is going to be "sooner than you think"
     
  7. Gregkeys

    Gregkeys Member

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    #7 Gregkeys, Nov 21, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2016
    @gearchruncher maybe we should separate FSDC into with and without someone in the driver seat.

    I'm thinking FSDC will be enabled in February 2017 with someone in the driver seat. (In any state)

    October 2017 with no one in the driver seat. (In enough states to go coast to coast)
     
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  8. Zaphod

    Zaphod Galaxy President (former)

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    They could build as many pieces and perfect it every which way, the biggest hurdle(s) is regulatory approval in states and countries. Until then, its a moot point when the actual hardware and software are perfected and how fast advances are made. It may help regulatory approval happen faster, but still the "chicken and egg" paradox is the battle.
     
  9. Gregkeys

    Gregkeys Member

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    I think we are talking about different regulations, at minimum; 1 for FSDC with people and 1 for FSDC without people. (People meaning someone in the driver seat but not driving)

    I don't see FSDC with people being much different than AP1; so where ever that works now and has permissible regulations is where I expect they will enable FSDC with people first
     
  10. Waiting4M3

    Waiting4M3 Active Member

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    I voted 2019 for Tesla releasing SW capable of complete hands-off, but still with a driver in the driver seat, and whether driver can go completely hands-off is depend on state/local regulations. I think fully automated w/o human driver is >5 years away.
     
  11. animorph

    animorph Member

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    I'm pretty sure it will come piecemeal, a feature at a time. Not one big release. I don't see why they couldn't release nearly all of the features while still requiring a driver to be responsible for operation. Less problems with the regulations. Next, enough regulatory approval to avoid charges of distracted driving while the car is driving you around. Maybe only on freeways at first. Then maybe city driving and driving without anyone in the car, though I'm not holding my breath for those.

    I'll be happy if I can eat lunch, read, and play on my phone while it drives me on the freeway on long trips, and prevents me from hitting anything in the city when I have to drive. Anything else is gravy.
     
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  12. sdorn

    sdorn Director of Awesome

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    I'm in the camp that thinks they will start releasing certain features in the FSDC option as soon as they are able in order to justify the $3,000 people have paid for the option. I don't think there are many regulatory issues in most states so long as the driver is still in the driver's seat and responsible for operating the car. Most states don't have legislation addressing that issue at all currently. My guess is we will start seeing some of those options in the first quarter of 2017.
     
  13. gearchruncher

    gearchruncher Member

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    Tesla says "by the end of 2017" for FSDC (14 months from annouce) and we've got people in here saying only 4 months!
     
  14. smtung

    smtung Member

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    They won't change the regulations until other big car companies catches up with AP technology. It requires a critical mass to push things foward.
     
  15. sdorn

    sdorn Director of Awesome

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    #15 sdorn, Nov 21, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2016
    States are passing regulations as we speak, and it really started picking up steam last year. The link below has a good breakdown of what has been proposed and what has passed in each state.

    http://www.ncsl.org/research/transportation/autonomous-vehicles-legislation.aspx

    Some states (e.g. Georgia where I live) have taken the stance that introducing regulation at this early stage would slow down research and as such the committee that investigated the issue in 2014 recommended that no additional regulations be passed at this time. That basically means that there is no prohibition on autonomous driving features in Georgia so long as there is a licensed driver behind the wheel that is responsible for its operation. What will eventually require legislation is a framework for operating autonomous vehicles outside the current system (meaning no human driver that is responsible for operating the car).
     
  16. MP3Mike

    MP3Mike Active Member

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    Yeah, that they would demo FSDC by then, not that it would be released by then. (Of course they could demo and release it tomorrow and that would still be true.)
     
  17. mjeagent

    mjeagent Member

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    As a transportation lobbyist in DC I can tell you that this technology is at least 3-5 years away from full federal approval. That timeline does not even take into account the various state laws although federal law should supersede in most cases. Autonomous driving will not be a major goal of the new administration so USDOT will continue to move at a snails pace. I am very close to this issue and am a proud model x driver who would like nothing more than to see fully autonomous vehicles but there are strong forces in DC lobbying against this.
     
  18. number12

    number12 Active Member

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    Big difference between someone in the drivers seat and not though.

    I don't see much gripe about different levels of autonomous driving such as ap1.

    Or is that what the new nags are to answer?

    I.e. Fsdc could be next year but without a person 5 years?
     
  19. RandyH

    RandyH New Member

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    Your take on it all could be some interesting reading...
     
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  20. Gregkeys

    Gregkeys Member

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    @mjeagent so what are you suggesting is 3-5 years off, we're talking about a lot of different scenarios here.

    Personally I'm not as concerned about summoning the car to me as I am about it driving me from one location to the next.

    I'd be happy if I can summon it to me on private property until legislation allows public property summoning, but won't be bummed if that takes a little longer.

    I'd be happy with additional safety features such as auto changing lanes to allow high speed vehicles to pass.

    I'd be happy with better accident collision.

    There are several things I think they will be able to do regardless of the legislation that will make it worth getting that $3000 FSDC option now

    But I am very curious about what aspect you think will take 3-5 years
     

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