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tomsax
Member
Yeah, it's a big relief to know that we'll get to continue enjoying cheap oil because we're opening up drilling on domestic oil reserves. That means the US oil companies, out of both gratitude and patriotism, will sell our oil to us at a fair price instead of at the price set by the world market. Drill, baby, drill.
Oil is still strategic
Well, perhaps this price increase will include the US after all. . . . By now, we're all aware of the political fallout of the BP oil spill locally: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/01/AR2010120106675.html
If one considers that we *may* be out of Iraq by 2017 (reducing our influence amongst OPEC) its not unreasonable to think that prices could creep up a few more dollars per gallon. By the way, I was surprised to learn that Venezuela is an OPEC member: http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/25.htm
Bottom line, oil is still a strategic resource. So still, setting price aside, it still makes sense from a national security perspective to reduce our oil consumption by about 40% (we source about 60% of our own oil) in the near future. I'm all in favor of this--oh, and nuclear powered aircraft, of course: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_aircraft
Well, perhaps this price increase will include the US after all. . . . By now, we're all aware of the political fallout of the BP oil spill locally: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/01/AR2010120106675.html
If one considers that we *may* be out of Iraq by 2017 (reducing our influence amongst OPEC) its not unreasonable to think that prices could creep up a few more dollars per gallon. By the way, I was surprised to learn that Venezuela is an OPEC member: http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/25.htm
Bottom line, oil is still a strategic resource. So still, setting price aside, it still makes sense from a national security perspective to reduce our oil consumption by about 40% (we source about 60% of our own oil) in the near future. I'm all in favor of this--oh, and nuclear powered aircraft, of course: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_aircraft
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Jaff
Active Member
Jaff, you raise an interesting point (from my perspective, at least): if mass electification of the transportation industry occurs, will the price of oil begin to drop such that it will be purchased and used in the same quantity as before, but for other, less efficient uses? For example, if one plots the trend in engine size/fuel consumption before and after the 1970s oil crisis, we see that oil price seems to be driving oil consumption.
Will there be a Hummer 2.0?
Will there be a Hummer 2.0?
Jaff
Active Member
Dal, I think that any reduction in demand in the North America & Europe will be more than offset by increased demand by the emerging middle class (new car owners) in China & India...there will be far more ICE vehicles hitting the world's roadways (over there) than EVs replacing ICE vehicles (over here)...thus no decrease, but in fact, a dramatic increase in demand for oil...coupled with ever dwindling oil supplies...price of oil will increase...jmo
By the way, the original paper is here: http://www.parliament.nz/en-NZ/ParlSupport/ResearchPapers/4/6/a/00PLEco10041-The-next-oil-shock.htm
Very interesting and worrying.
Very interesting and worrying.
csummers
TXTriguy
I'm not so sure about the increase in ICE in developing countries over the next 10 yrs. If you look at telecom for instance, many developing country's citizens went from no phone to cell pretty much overnight. Largely due to lack of copper/fibre infrustructure, but also the low cost. Over the next 10 yrs ICE will be more expensive to purchase, operate and maintain vs. AFV. With biofuel now being tested in jet planes and alge farms experimenting creating fuel (or fuel boosters ie. ethanol), cride oil will see a decreasing market. (IMO)
Jaff
Active Member
I agree with your statement that EVs will eventually cost less to purchase than ICE vehicles (n.b. EVs already cost less to operate and maintain)...I'm not sure that this will happen in the next decade though...hope so though!
They never allowed those in Canada. Always hated that because in February you freeze your hands, even with gloves on.
Our prices here are currently around $1.10 a litre ($1.17 for the mid-premium gas I use). It takes $94 to fill my tank. This is slightly worse than the Roadster, which takes $7.00 at current electricity rates.
Geez at this rate I might eventually break even on the Roadster purchase...
Jaff
Active Member
Looks like the U.S. Secretary of Energy sees a relatively fast adoption of EVs in the U.S.
http://green.autoblog.com/
Chu says electric cars can be "competitive" with gas vehicles in five years
U.S. Secretary of Energy Steven Chu has long been a supporter of electric vehicles (EVs). A big one. So let's consider his most recent pro-EV statements in that context. Speaking during the annual U.N. climate talks in Cancun, Reuters reports, Chu said that battery-powered cars will start being competitive with gas-powered ones in about five years:It's not like it's 10 years off. It's about five years and it could be sooner. Meanwhile the batteries we do have today are soon going to get better by a factor of two.
Chu's list of improvements includes batteries that last 15 years, have five to seven times more energy storage capacity and are a lot cheaper – by a factor of three – than today's packs. That's a tall order, even for someone who has the funds to keep supporting further improvements. As regular readers know, the DOE has thrown a lot of money at plug-in vehicle companies, like Tesla, Nissan and Fisker. The DOE's Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy is also investing around $400 million in advanced automotive batteries. Chu told Reuters that even if only 10 percent of the projects in that program eventually appear on the scene, they'll play a big role in making the world more cleaner and energy secure.
I basically agree with what he says although I feel that he is a bit optimistic with his timeline...even if EVs cost the same as ICE vehicles in 5 years, there are still many consumers who will resist buying an EV.
However, the Secretary is speaking of matching normal production cars sold in mainline Western markets...in 5 years, are EVs going to be able to match the cost of little basic transportation ICE vehicles manufactured in India or China (Tata Motors, Chery Automobile, et al) built using cheap, domestic labour...doubt it.
http://green.autoblog.com/
Chu says electric cars can be "competitive" with gas vehicles in five years
U.S. Secretary of Energy Steven Chu has long been a supporter of electric vehicles (EVs). A big one. So let's consider his most recent pro-EV statements in that context. Speaking during the annual U.N. climate talks in Cancun, Reuters reports, Chu said that battery-powered cars will start being competitive with gas-powered ones in about five years:It's not like it's 10 years off. It's about five years and it could be sooner. Meanwhile the batteries we do have today are soon going to get better by a factor of two.
Chu's list of improvements includes batteries that last 15 years, have five to seven times more energy storage capacity and are a lot cheaper – by a factor of three – than today's packs. That's a tall order, even for someone who has the funds to keep supporting further improvements. As regular readers know, the DOE has thrown a lot of money at plug-in vehicle companies, like Tesla, Nissan and Fisker. The DOE's Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy is also investing around $400 million in advanced automotive batteries. Chu told Reuters that even if only 10 percent of the projects in that program eventually appear on the scene, they'll play a big role in making the world more cleaner and energy secure.
I basically agree with what he says although I feel that he is a bit optimistic with his timeline...even if EVs cost the same as ICE vehicles in 5 years, there are still many consumers who will resist buying an EV.
However, the Secretary is speaking of matching normal production cars sold in mainline Western markets...in 5 years, are EVs going to be able to match the cost of little basic transportation ICE vehicles manufactured in India or China (Tata Motors, Chery Automobile, et al) built using cheap, domestic labour...doubt it.
Heck, all that would take is the purported tripling of gas prices. If both gas and electricity prices tripled, I estimate that the total purchase and operating costs of even the Roadster would be similar to an ICE car after six years.
The Model S would be a slam-dunk -- break-even in about a year.
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Doubling of gas prices would be enough. Try paying $7 for regular. I believe there would be a time lag while manufacturers ramp up production.
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