Full Autonomy All But Confirmed for 3, "We're doing the obvious thing"

[DrivingTheFuture]

Musk's statement in the RECODE video all but settled it. He said it's obvious what they'll be announcing later this year. @flamingoezz already posted something similar to this, but it bears repeating, and I didn't see anyone sharing this story from Teslarati : Tesla Autopilot 2.0 hardware possibly spotted on Model S test mule , the images clearly show new autopilot hardware. And if they're testing this ALREADY, it should really be functional by launch time. Free or not, activated or not, the capability will be there.

 

[FirstSea]

It's obvious he is going to reveal AP V2, whether or not it includes full autonomy remains to be seen.

 

[S'toon]

...I didn't see anyone sharing this story from Teslarati : Tesla Autopilot 2.0 hardware possibly spotted on Model S test mule ,...

That's because it was posted in the Model S forum, some time ago, and is a few pages in on the timeline.
Autopilot 2.0 test hardware sighting?

 

[Johan]

"Great" alternatives to answer. Not begging the question at all.

 

[ecarfan]

This is already being discussed here Nobody talking about the Full Autonomy hint from Elon at Code Conference?!

 

[favo]

"Great" alternatives to answer. Not begging the question at all.

Kudos for correct usage of the phrase. Very rare these days.

 

[DrivingTheFuture]

This is already being discussed here Nobody talking about the Full Autonomy hint from Elon at Code Conference?!

Yep and I gave that OP credit, but he was referring to a different comment made by elon... granted along the same lines

 

[DrivingTheFuture]

"Great" alternatives to answer. Not begging the question at all.

Hmmm... not sure how the answers "No Way" and "Most Definitely" fit the definition of "begging the question" .......where premises include the claim that the conclusion is true...

some light reading: Fallacy: Begging the Question

 

[DrivingTheFuture]

That's because it was posted in the Model S forum, some time ago, and is a few pages in on the timeline.
Autopilot 2.0 test hardware sighting?

That's interesting but I was actually referring to the photos that only just got posted on May 26th, and show different hardware. But that's neat to see they are testing numerous systems / solutions OR that they've simply refined what they were using back in March.

 

[ohmman]

It's clear that the "obvious" thing they'll be announcing is a one year delay.

 

[1208]

It's clear that the "obvious" thing they'll be announcing is a one year delay.

I thought it was zebra striped seat covers.

 

[jkk_]

Hmmm... not sure how the answers "No Way" and "Most Definitely" fit the definition of "begging the question" .......where premises include the claim that the conclusion is true...

some light reading: Fallacy: Begging the Question

1. Most Definitely, It's Obvious!
2. Possibly... Still Not Sure
3. No Way, You'll have to drive that sucker yourself!

First option sounds positive, third option negative. Some of us don't need to drive our cars, we get to drive our cars.

 

[Johan]

Yeah that was my point - the alternatives the OP gave had very emotional connotations and hence, whether intended or not (perhaps a subconscious phenomenon), the question and its multiple choice answers was leading and implying. Perhaps not exactly the same as begging the question, but close enough.

A better label would be this:

Your logical fallacy is loaded question

If one were actually interested in people's opinion on the matter, without signaling your own bias, the answer choices would be: yes, maybe and no. Not "yes of course" and "no way, drive the sucker yourself".

 

[davidc18]

I think the obvious thing is that it will have the autopilot hardware installed (activated for additional $$$). I expect it to still be version 1.0 and still be in beta but have additional sensors for better blind spot detection.

 

[deonb]

I think the obvious thing is: "It does what the Model S does".

Not: "It uses some new and untested, unannounced, system that may or may not be ready by then, if ever, and will have a who knows what regulatory backlash."


People have a tendency to always over-read Elon's comments. When Elon says something, he means it directly - he doesn't speak in code.

 

[DrivingTheFuture]

Yeah that was my point - the alternatives the OP gave had very emotional connotations and hence, whether intended or not (perhaps a subconscious phenomenon), the question and its multiple choice answers was leading and implying. Perhaps not exactly the same as begging the question, but close enough.

A better label would be this:

Your logical fallacy is loaded question

If one were actually interested in people's opinion on the matter, without signaling your own bias, the answer choices would be: yes, maybe and no. Not "yes of course" and "no way, drive the sucker yourself".

Ok I see your points now, my intent was not to create biased responses but to make the options more interesting and fun than just "yes" or "no"

 

[DrivingTheFuture]

First option sounds positive, third option negative. Some of us don't need to drive our cars, we get to drive our cars.

Couldn't agree more. I love driving my car in certain scenarios, and I love that Elon is stating that he never intends to take that freedom away from people.

 

[DrivingTheFuture]

I think the obvious thing is that it will have the autopilot hardware installed (activated for additional $$$). I expect it to still be version 1.0 and still be in beta but have additional sensors for better blind spot detection.

They've already announced this... why would they hold a second event to announce something they already announced??? Elon was referring to WHAT they will announce (something new) later this year when he made the "obvious" statement.

 

[Siciliano]

I think both the 3 and the S will have "near" full autonomy, it's simply a matter of the software being sufficiently baked within 2 years - hardware is the easy end of it.

I also highly doubt regulations will be in place by then, so they'll simply do what they've done with autopilot 1.0 - feature a disclaimer that you MUST be alert at all times with your hands on the steering wheel. End of story. That pretty effectively covers the liability end of it. Like I've said before, there currently is no regulation that states you may let your car drive itself down the freeway.... are people still doing it anyway? Absolutely.

It's funny that so many people think it's not even possible, yet even up to a few YEARS ago Google has been successfully "running" their own fleet of fully autonomous cars. They even had no problem on dirt roads, intersections, road signs, etc... Do some research. And I'd imagine they're far closer than Tesla is...aka months away, not years.

 

[DrivingTheFuture]

I think both the 3 and the S will have "near" full autonomy...it's simply a matter of the hardware being sufficiently baked within 2 years.

I also highly doubt regulations will be in place by then, so they'll simply do what they've done with autopilot 1.0 - feature a disclaimer that you MUST be alert at all times with your hands on the steering wheel. End of story. That pretty effectively covers the liability end of it. Like I've said before, there currently is no regulation that states you may let your car drive itself down the freeway.... are people still doing it anyway? Absolutely.

It's funny that so many people think it's not even possible, yet even up to a few YEARS ago Google has been successfully "running" their own fleet of fully autonomous cars. They even had no problem on dirt roads, intersections, road signs, etc... Do some research. And I'd imagine they're far closer than Tesla is...aka months away, not years.

I think Tesla has leapfrogged ahead of Google, because of the shift to machine learning, the company with the most data wins... and Tesla is getting A LOT more data than Google... and accumulating more and more each day. Google's only shot now is to license their tech to car companies that already have sensors on the road in their vehicles, and Elon mentioned this is what he thinks they'll do...