Full Self-Driving Capability was purchased

[Midway99]

will they notify me to install HW3, or is this something I need to stay on them about. Based on previous interactions with Tesla, I’m assuming I will need to push this for the foreseeable future....my guess is a few years.

Anyone have specifics?

Thanks

 

[Tam]

..my guess is a few years...

With Tesla's time, that's a reasonable guess.

 

[DontBetAgtsEln]

Software needs to catch up to HW before they offer the upgrade.

Once that happens they will probably start fairly quickly. (California first IMO)

 

[ewoodrick]

You will get notified.

As we all wait.

Remember, if they do it in order, there are a lot of cars in front of you.

 

[Derek Kessler]

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[Knightshade]

You will get notified.

As we all wait.

Remember, if they do it in order, there are a lot of cars in front of you.

I'd expect a roughly 0% chance they go purely be the order in which people ordered FSD.

That'd be logistically insane compared to spreading the labor around the country, especially given how few service locations they have at all.

 

[super20g]

Good luck if you plan to wait for Tesla to contact you for a HW3 upgrade...

 

[tradenet1]

I have been told by Q4

 

[SteveOfMo]

If they're rolling out close to a 1000 model 3's with HW3 a day, it's not supply that's slowing things down. So everyone needs to flood customer service.

 

[SammichLover]

I have been told by Q4

A statement to which I'd assign expected accuracy of roughly a Magic 8-ball.

 

[fajitamondays]

The line starts back there --->...-->...->

We're in it together. Gonna be a while (Elon time).

 

[Trips]

I expect them to do the replacements as cars come in for service. If you live in an area that they are not busy they could schedule it. There are not many area's that have extra time.

 

[GolanB]

Software needs to catch up to HW before they offer the upgrade.

This is an important point - right now, there is no advantage to being on HW3 in terms of feature set, and I'd rather not be on one of the first HW builds to avoid any early issues.

 

[Knightshade]

I expect them to do the replacements as cars come in for service.

most cars won't be in for service at all, potentially for years, so that's not a great strategy.

 

[verystandard]

Just saying, but if now the software runs fine with HW2.5, and they decided to to upgrade your HW2.5 not now but few years later due to demand and amounts of upgrade (of course someone is going to upgrade it to HW3 sooner than you and they probably jump up and down earlier than you as well), you will likely get HW3.5 instead of HW3 because of continuous hardware improvement?

I would assume the later they upgrade your computer the better?

 

[GolanB]

Just saying, but if now the software runs fine with HW2.5, and they decided to to upgrade your HW2.5 not now but few years later due to demand and amounts of upgrade (of course someone is going to upgrade it to HW3 sooner than you and they probably jump up and down earlier than you as well), you will likely get HW3.5 instead of HW3 because of continuous hardware improvement?

I would assume the later they upgrade your computer the better?

That may be pure speculation. Tesla mentioned that they likely won't have a major update to hardware in two years, and I suspect they will try to push out the HW3 upgrade well before that time. Will there be minor updates to HW3? - I'm sure. Will people be able to jump an entire generation in HW - probably not. On the other hand, its very difficult to predict Tesla's behavior. They've updated timelines and changed course often.

 

[SigNC]

thank for for funding the mission.

 

[VT_EE]

It’s going to take them a while to upgrade all the people who bought FSD. A Tesla tech told me it would take about 3 hours for each install. Most of the time is spent bleeding the cooling system of bubbles, then making sure the system works by monitoring the temp of the computer.

 

[Tam]

...bleeding the cooling system of bubbles...

It looks more like a fan cooling system, not a liquid cooling system:

 

[Tam]

Available parts have been a big problem since 2012. Parts are prioritized to production line first. That has caused delays for body shops and general repairs.

If parts are plentiful as I assume with air bags, it still took quite a long time for my case.

I got a 2012 Model air bag recall since January 2017. Service Center said they'll get mobile service in Fall 2017. It finally was done when I brought my car in for annual service in Summer 2018.

That's for 2,650 cars that were delivered in North America in 2012.

That's a small number comparing with the numbers of cars with HW 2.0 and 2.5!

2017 production was 120,000
2018 production was 350,000

For 2 years alone, that's 470,000! (HW2.0 didn't start until 10/2016, so it's only about 2 month production at most)