Full Self Driving without Assistance by this time Next Year - Musk

[kizamybute']

Im probably.....no definitely in the minority, but i do think we will have L2 or maybe even L3 driving come next year......another year of the FSD beta testing along with more data.......maybe FSD has finally turned a corner. Naive, maybe. But i am thinking we are probably closer than alot of people realize.....ok. Now you all can laugh at me.

Elon is saying it will be L5, which means you can be a passenger in the car. L2 is what we have now. L3 is a step above, but still requires a DRIVER in the driver's seat paying attention. L4 and 5 are the versions where the car can handle itself without human assistance. That's what we're talking about here. That is still YEARS and YEARS away.

 

[kizamybute']

What Tesla should do is to transfer FSD to the new car if you trade it in, up until the moment where FSD is actually released in full.

Under the circumstances, this IS something Tesla "SHOULD" do, but won't, because they don't have to. Would be the right thing to do.

I've bought and sold two cars with FSD. Got basically nothing for the money I spent on the first two since it was never delivered as promised. My current car will be sold in a month. At least I got to experience this Beta version, but again, will the third car I purchased it on and didn't get what was promised.

Would result in A LOT MORE sales of FSD for Tesla if they allowed owners to keep it and transfer it to another car. Would also encourage Tesla owners to buy another Tesla. Sadly, after 9 years in a Tesla, my current one is my last, at least for the foreseeable future. If I had $12,000 FSD that I could take with me, possibly I would have reconsidered, Probably not, but possibly. However, my reasons for not continuing with Tesla are possibly different than others. Many would likely be convinced to buy another one if they could save that $12,000 as still get WHAT THEY ALREADY PAID FOR.

I guess the option that makes the most sense for people that don't keep their cars for more than 3-4 years would be to just do the monthly subscription. However, Tesla is likely to raise the price on that too, so no guarantee that what makes sense today would still make sense tomorrow with Tesla.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

What Tesla should do is to transfer FSD to the new car if you trade it in, up until the moment where FSD is actually released in full.

Concur 100%, especially since we've purchased FSD at least two or three times and have effectively nothing to show for it. Frankly, I too feel like I've been scammed as the Summon feature is more of a joke than a real "feature," with its strong proclivity toward curbs and large objects. "Navigate on Autopilot" wasn't worth much either. It just goes on and on, and the fact that Tesla doesn't give a damn about making us whole speaks volumes . . . .

The odds that they'll do this are effectively zero, sadly.

Elon should know better as his reputation among us early adopters, that PAID MONEY for this, drops daily.

 

[2101Guy]

notice he didnt say WHERE...this would work. He didnt say public roads...he didnt say what speed limit...

I suspect his statement will be 100% correct. (on a closed course or extremely limited road location).

We are talking the master of spin here

 

[David.85D]

Im probably.....no definitely in the minority, but i do think we will have L2 or maybe even L3 driving come next year......another year of the FSD beta testing along with more data.......maybe FSD has finally turned a corner. Naive, maybe. But i am thinking we are probably closer than alot of people realize.....ok. Now you all can laugh at me.

I’ll take the bait. I live in a fairly mild climate. It averages 120 days of rain per year here. Cameras are worthless in rain/snow.

Nothing else matters without camera washers / wipers / dryers / magic fairies… Car would be stuck immobile somewhere 1/3 of the time. Can you imagine the gridlock with all the FSD cars shutting down when it starts to rain?

People will be dragging Teslas away with tractors and pickups.

 

[kizamybute']

notice he didnt say WHERE...this would work. He didnt say public roads...he didnt say what speed limit...

I suspect his statement will be 100% correct. (on a closed course or extremely limited road location).

We are talking the master of spin here

Technically, smart summon does allow the car to "drive itself" without a driver in the car. Maybe only a short distance and with a driver constantly holding a button, but it is technically driverless during that time.

 

[Kairide]

I can care less about what Musk says exactly, but I do care that he's trying to keep the conversation in the mainstream of popular culture, perhaps to the detriment of his personal reputation. Even if he's proven wrong time and again, i.e. broken promises every year, him pushing that conversation is helping the industry, and Tesla competitors, to continue to adjust their goals. May not necessarily be on autonomous driving, but EV performance, delivery timeline, quality, etc. For me, I purchased my MY a year ago. Even if FSD becomes general release three years from now, I'm still just only halfway of my expected ownership period (8-10 years). In the meantime, I can play with FSD beta and all of the thrills (near misses, lol) that entails.

He's not doing it for the good of autonomous driving/keeping it relevant. He keeps making promises and talks out of his ass to push FSD sales. Nothing he does is for the good of anyone or anything except his bottom line now.

 

[2101Guy]

Technically, smart summon does allow the car to "drive itself" without a driver in the car. Maybe only a short distance and with a driver constantly holding a button, but it is technically driverless during that time.

True. And technically, there have been zero reports of fatalities while on smart summon. Thus, he will also be able to say he's achieved safety thats 10x what it is with a human driver.

voila

 

[mangrove79]

He's not doing it for the good of autonomous driving/keeping it relevant. He keeps making promises and talks out of his ass to push FSD sales. Nothing he does is for the good of anyone or anything except his bottom line now.

We're both speculating what his intention is and we both have our reasons to believe that. I'm probably the more naive of the two, but I don't mind staying that way. If you're right, time will tell.

 

[Kairide]

We're both speculating what his intention is and we both have our reasons to believe that. I'm probably the more naive of the two, but I don't mind staying that way. If you're right, time will tell.

I think after 5+ years of claiming FSD is coming and the other FOMO tactics Elon does to increase sales, it's far from speculating at this point. Why do you think he always announces and makes a big deal when FSD is going to get a price increase? It's not to help you get a better deal, it's to drive sales due to peoples FOMO at the current price.
The auto distance cruise control in my Tacoma is smoother than the FSD in my MS and I have radar. I can't imagine what it's like with just the vision system. At least with the Tacoma when traffic is slowing it gradually brakes and then gradually accelerates with traffic. Unlike the MS which slams on the brakes at the last second with slowing traffic and then floors it when traffic is moving again. It's like a 16 year old first time driver.

 

[drtimhill]

I still can't drive 10 miles on a 4 lane divided highway with no traffic around me without having to intervene. I am hoping to be able to accomplish this task by this time next year.

Works fine for me .. do you have FSD beta?

 

[DerbyDave]

Works fine for me .. do you have FSD beta?

Yes, FSD Beta. Phantom Braking and constantly trying to go into the left lane for no reason with no other cars around. You cannot stop it from trying to change lanes or require confirmation. You must manually click the blinker off after it starts changing lanes without warning, and override the FSD..

 

[drtimhill]

Yes, FSD Beta. Phantom Braking and constantly trying to go into the left lane for no reason with no other cars around. You cannot stop it from trying to change lanes or require confirmation. You must manually click the blinker off after it starts changing lanes without warning, and override the FSD..

I assume you have reported it .. sounds like a map problem.

 

[DerbyDave]

I snapshot each error, and that is sent to them. Not a map problem. I think shadows across the road or some other anomaly with Vision Only causes Phantom Braking. The lane changing is 10 miles of open 4 lane road, and I have the destination selected past the 10 miles. It is routing me straight. There are no other cars around me within at least 100 yards. The car turns on the left signal and will move into the left lane, for no reason. I can't stop it. It happens about every 2 miles. It makes FSD unusable that I must intervene so frequently to have my car drive normally in a pristine environment without any complications for the Vision Only. It just doesn't work correctly. No other car manufacturer has this problem with even their "old" outdated dynamic cruise control. Tesla is behind in the development of basic cruise control, auto headlights, and auto wipers. Tesla just can't figure this simple stuff out.

 

[D.E.]

Tesla is getting an extra $10K or so, per car that gets it, and it’s all profit. But the story must stay fresh or the new people won’t get it. I got it. That was 5 years ago, when it was 1 year away.

And you know, it could arrive tomorrow and I wouldn’t trust it. It’ll be beta. It’ll have code farts.

 

[whitex]

Tesla is getting an extra $10K or so, per car that gets it, and it’s all profit. But the story must stay fresh or the new people won’t get it. I got it. That was 5 years ago, when it was 1 year away.

You cannot effectively warn new people under Elon's spell. The more you try, the more they dig their heels in. I've been trying since 2016, and gotta tell you, otherwise sensible people would argue tirelessly how FSD coming any day now, using Elon's quotes as proof. One member here (calisnow) even made some charity bets about FSD readiness a year out, then lost them all of course, but left the forum (probably came back under a different user name) to avoid paying out. Elon cast an incredible spell over people, really hard to break.

 

[D.E.]

You cannot effectively warn new people under Elon's spell. The more you try, the more they dig their heels in. I've been trying since 2016, and gotta tell you, otherwise sensible people would argue tirelessly how FSD coming any day now, using Elon's quotes as proof. One member here (calisnow) even made some charity bets about FSD readiness a year out, then lost them all of course, but left the forum (probably came back under a different user name) to avoid paying out. Elon cast an incredible spell over people, really hard to break.

I don’t want to warn them, it’s in my best interest that Tesla, the car company, is around for a long time.

 

[kizamybute']

Tesla has no "dealerships" as do most other manufacturers, but still has a sleezy salesman type. Not saying Elon Musk is sleezy, but his sales tactics are just as bad, actually worse, than typical salesman tactics on a used car lot. He has is cult-like following that will agree with whatever he says. Elon said it, so it must be right. Don't get me wrong, the man is brilliant, certainly one of the most brilliant this planet has ever seen, but that doesn't make him perfect and certainly doesn't make him right all the time.

 

[whitex]

Tesla has no "dealerships" as do most other manufacturers, but still has a sleezy salesman type. Not saying Elon Musk is sleezy, but his sales tactics are just as bad, actually worse, than typical salesman tactics on a used car lot. He has is cult-like following that will agree with whatever he says. Elon said it, so it must be right. Don't get me wrong, the man is brilliant, certainly one of the most brilliant this planet has ever seen, but that doesn't make him perfect and certainly doesn't make him right all the time.

Oh I will say it, his sales tactics are sleazy. Bringing car salesman stereotype to 21-st century while innovating on them. Some really sleazy examples:

1. P85D, Elon says "700hp car", Tesla lists "motor power = 691hp". Ok, I can see rounding from 691 to 700. BUT, actual truth, Tesla only forced to admit after a lawsuit in Europe, 463hp max, limited by the battery. Tesla's official response "motors are capable, battery or the rest of the electronics is not". So, the actual car sold by Tesla would need an over 50% power boost in order to meet the advertised spec.
2. AutoPilot1, advertised to "find you anywhere on private property", even have a diagram showing your car meeting you at the curb which is 90 degrees from your driveway. Actual delivered, the car will drive up to x feet forward or in reverse in straight line only while you hold a dead-man-switch and are responsible for all damages the car may cause.

So yea, sleazy is not an overstatement. The examples above are old on purpose. This is so that nobody suggests that Elon is still working on delivering the above. I didn't use current examples, because it would just attract Tesla fanboys saying how it's too soon to tell, it's coming by this time next year, etc. Heck, even the blind spot monitoring "genius idea" of Elon's to use parking sensor was a joke - guess why they are called "parking sensors", because they are for parking, On a highway, when the wind blows at 70mph+ passed the ultrasonic sensors, it's useless. But of course nobody bother to test, Elon says they will work, and nobody had the guts to suggest to perhaps test if that idea works before putting it into production and selling it as a feature. Tesla skillfully cleansed blind spot monitoring as an advertised feature for a while from their website because after they realized Elon was wrong.

For FSD, when it's all said and done, Tesla will tell you, most of your car is in fact full self driving capable - the floor mats, the seats, the windshields, door handles, paint job, etc. - just missing software, sensors and some redundancy required for self driving which will never come to those cars. I also predict, come back to my post in few years, that Tesla will blame things on regulators with excuses such as "we didn't know back then that hardware redundancy (or some other hardware feature) was going to be required of all self driving cars" or "regulators will not allow us to deploy FSD to 20 year old cars". Y'all enjoy your FSD capable cars which will never self drive!

 

[David_Cary]

I find it interesting that people would ever give Elon a pass on all this. Aspirational, keeping the conversation going or whatever excuses people use for his behavior.
The fact is that the general assault on truth has negative consequences. Little things at first. And eventually we realize the only one with super powers was George Orwell.
While I have 2 Teslas and they will be worth a lot less if Tesla were to disappear tomorrow, I tell everyone that will listen that FSD is a ridiculous joke and Elon has gone full Theranos on this issue. The fact that he continually does it shows just how stupid he thinks the average person is. At some point, there can't be that many foolish people out there with money to spare....