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Full Self Driving without Assistance by this time Next Year - Musk

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Get a grip, folks.

Elon isn’t lying. He’s just wrong. And then does things on the basis of thinking he’s right, even though he’s wrong.

He does this because sometimes he is right (I can build cheaper rockets and I can land them on a boat so I can reuse them) and assumes he’s always right even when wrong (FSD this year! Every year).

You can blame people (and Elon) for being wrong as much as you want but that doesn’t help you or anyone else. At a minimum it’s being intellectually lazy. It’s like listening to the homeless person on the street saying the end of the world is nigh. Hopefully you know better than to do that.

Look at the people actually working on FSD (Kaparthy et al) and what they’re saying, failing/accomplishing, planning, etc.

If you look at that and decide you can’t tell whether FSD will work or not… then you probably have an accurate view of things.
 
Given we all (proudly) own Tesla‘s … and I’m guessing 98% of us would buy another Tesla, this thread has astonished me.

There isn’t a single post that “supports” Elon’s claims for FSD.

I’m guessing the “boffins” that Elon has employed to deliver the hardware and AI, are misleading him !
He’s trusting of them.

If I were Elon, I’d have someone I trust, from SpaceX perhaps, undertake an audit of all the money he’s spending on FSD development.

At this point in time, the gap between what the owners and enthusiasts say, (above) markedly contradicts Elon’s FSD hopes.
 
I snapshot each error, and that is sent to them. Not a map problem. I think shadows across the road or some other anomaly with Vision Only causes Phantom Braking. The lane changing is 10 miles of open 4 lane road, and I have the destination selected past the 10 miles. It is routing me straight. There are no other cars around me within at least 100 yards. The car turns on the left signal and will move into the left lane, for no reason. I can't stop it. It happens about every 2 miles. It makes FSD unusable that I must intervene so frequently to have my car drive normally in a pristine environment without any complications for the Vision Only. It just doesn't work correctly. No other car manufacturer has this problem with even their "old" outdated dynamic cruise control. Tesla is behind in the development of basic cruise control, auto headlights, and auto wipers. Tesla just can't figure this simple stuff out.
My headlights/cruise/wipers work perfectly in auto.
 
I wish mine did. I can deal with the wipers either not wiping the wet windshield until I get an autopilot unavailable message due to windshield front visibility, or people flashing their headlights at me for either not dimming, or after dimming switching back to high beam as the cars approach me. I never had issues with Lexus, Mercedes, BMW or Jaguar auto high beams or auto wipers. Hopefully Tesla will not remove my ability to turn off the automation for these items, which is my normal reaction to their failure.
 
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Get a grip, folks.

Elon isn’t lying. He’s just wrong. And then does things on the basis of thinking he’s right, even though he’s wrong.

He does this because sometimes he is right (I can build cheaper rockets and I can land them on a boat so I can reuse them) and assumes he’s always right even when wrong (FSD this year! Every year).

You can blame people (and Elon) for being wrong as much as you want but that doesn’t help you or anyone else. At a minimum it’s being intellectually lazy. It’s like listening to the homeless person on the street saying the end of the world is nigh. Hopefully you know better than to do that.

Look at the people actually working on FSD (Kaparthy et al) and what they’re saying, failing/accomplishing, planning, etc.

If you look at that and decide you can’t tell whether FSD will work or not… then you probably have an accurate view of things.
There's a difference between being wrong and being misleading. Hence his issues with the SEC. Just look at the Tesla ordering page and you'll see that the misleading starts when you order a car. The first price you see is "Potential Savings", not the actual price. If you're new to Tesla or not tech savvy, you would never know to toggle between the potential savings and purchase price options. That is the epidemy of misleading, but I digress.
As far as FSD, considering the fact that autowipers are still in Beta mode, do you really think FSD is next year? If the common sense folks know Tesla is nowhere close to FSD, then Elon knows. He just can't say so or else no one would pay for FSD.


Given we all (proudly) own Tesla‘s … and I’m guessing 98% of us would buy another Tesla, this thread has astonished me.

There isn’t a single post that “supports” Elon’s claims for FSD.

I’m guessing the “boffins” that Elon has employed to deliver the hardware and AI, are misleading him !
He’s trusting of them.

If I were Elon, I’d have someone I trust, from SpaceX perhaps, undertake an audit of all the money he’s spending on FSD development.

At this point in time, the gap between what the owners and enthusiasts say, (above) markedly contradicts Elon’s FSD hopes.
No one is misleading him, the ones who are realistic and know that FSD is not possible yet get the axe. Let's get autowipers out of Beta mode, then we can talk FSD.
 
There's a difference between being wrong and being misleading. Hence his issues with the SEC. Just look at the Tesla ordering page and you'll see that the misleading starts when you order a car. The first price you see is "Potential Savings", not the actual price. If you're new to Tesla or not tech savvy, you would never know to toggle between the potential savings and purchase price options. That is the epidemy of misleading, but I digress.
As far as FSD, considering the fact that autowipers are still in Beta mode, do you really think FSD is next year? If the common sense folks know Tesla is nowhere close to FSD, then Elon knows. He just can't say so or else no one would pay for FSD.



No one is misleading him, the ones who are realistic and know that FSD is not possible yet get the axe. Let's get autowipers out of Beta mode, then we can talk FSD.
You are misunderstanding what I’m saying, entirely…
 
The car turns on the left signal and will move into the left lane, for no reason. I can't stop it. It happens about every 2 miles. It makes FSD unusable that I must intervene so frequently to have my car drive normally in a pristine environment without any complications for the Vision Only.
You have “navigate on autopilot” turned on. Turn it off and it won’t automatically change lanes. It’ll suggest lane changes but it won’t initiate a lane change by itself.
 
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You have “navigate on autopilot” turned on. Turn it off and it won’t automatically change lanes. It’ll suggest lane changes but it won’t initiate a lane change by itself.
I believe FSD Beta enabled in autopilot, whether or not it is in active use, greys out the option to confirm lane changes. I guess I could turn off FSD beta, but that is kind of defeating the point that it should give me the option to confirm lane changes, or it should do it correctly every time. I worked to get the FSD Beta, and I want it to work correctly.

I will try to turn off Navigate on Autopilot with FSD enabled. The option on lane changes is under Navigate on Autopilot, so I am not sure how that would work.
 
Get a grip, folks.

Elon isn’t lying. He’s just wrong. And then does things on the basis of thinking he’s right, even though he’s wrong.
Ok, then why does he not admit when he's wrong, and if he took money for something he cannot deliver because he was wrong, refund the money. It seems like the honest thing to do, no?

In the P85D horsepower example, arguing that Elon was just wrong about the horsepower is arguing that he's completely incompetent as an engineer, since the battery which shipped with P85D had a fuse which would not have allowed anywhere near the advertised power to be delivered. Tesla is not that dumb to be wrong on such a basic engineering concept, which leads us back to dishonest.
 
We need to see/hear the exact wording and context here because I can think of many ways such a statement can be interpreted -- technically there are already many companies with cars zooming around that don't have human drivers behind the wheel. But they're heavily geofenced, restricted in other ways, have remote backup drivers, etc, and what isn't being said here could point to any number of caveats.

No way does Elon believe they'll have a SAE Level 5 (or equivalent) vehicle by this time next year
 
No way does Elon believe they'll have a SAE Level 5 (or equivalent) vehicle by this time next year
Agreed. He is saying that on a sunny day around noon the car will be able to go from point A in a city to point B, as long as there is no construction, ambulance, police, funeral processions, unusual intersections or markings, merging lanes, or stalled vehicles on the roadway. I say no way.
 
Given we all (proudly) own Tesla‘s … and I’m guessing 98% of us would buy another Tesla, this thread has astonished me.

There isn’t a single post that “supports” Elon’s claims for FSD.
I wouldn't be so sure about the 98% guess of yours. Definitely not true about buying FSD rebuy rate. Tesla still makes pretty good EV's, though for me personally their change in service and warranty policies combines with production quality issues and continued experimentation on customers made me stop buying Teslas after Model 3 flood and the laser focus on profit.


I’m guessing the “boffins” that Elon has employed to deliver the hardware and AI, are misleading him !
He’s trusting of them.
I suggest you watch the recent "Elon Musk's Crash Course" documentary, which includes interviews with the AP developers. Spoiler alert, developers told him it was not possible, but he ignored them. So no, he doesn't trust them.