Full Self Driving without Assistance by this time Next Year - Musk

[AndrewZ]

Even if Metralla's statement is accurate, that doesn't mean Tesla will achieve what people thinks Elon's talking about when he says these things. People think Elon is talking about full Robotaxi functionality everywhere and at all times, aka Level 5.

There are "zero-disengagement" drives on YouTube from probably over a year ago. Watch one of those, then go watch a video from another part of the US where FSD will mistake a red light for an adjacent green light and try to plow a vehicle through an intersection on a red while running the exact same version on the same day as the "zero-disengagement" drive.

One person's narrow experience does not reflect FSD as a whole, two people using the same version of FSD on the same day can have totally different results. Heck you can do the same route twice back to back and have totally different results, or try the same route in one direction and then the other direction back.

 

[OliverM3]

Tesla can't even program the Infotainment Systems correctly. Yet Musk says Full Self Driving without Driver Intervention by this time next year.
Elon Musk says Tesla will have self-driving cars without need for human driver this time next year

Elon's got jokes so funny.

 

[whitex]

AP1 is still in beta, is it not?

Of course. It will be in beta until the very last AP1 equipped vehicle meets the junkyard crusher. But I'm sure for legal purposes Elon will ay they are still working on it.

 

[Stuart Watson]

I wouldn't be so sure about the 98% guess of yours. Definitely not true about buying FSD rebuy rate. Tesla still makes pretty good EV's, though for me personally their change in service and warranty policies combines with production quality issues and continued experimentation on customers made me stop buying Teslas after Model 3 flood and the laser focus on profit.



I suggest you watch the recent "Elon Musk's Crash Course" documentary, which includes interviews with the AP developers. Spoiler alert, developers told him it was not possible, but he ignored them. So no, he doesn't trust them.

That particular documentary was utter
Lies and omissions!

I’m shocked anyone would take it seriously.

Can I recommend you download the “investor day videos “. You can see the interaction between Elon and his key AI and hardware teams.
Of course he trusts them , he’s on the same ****ing stage, delivering the same message!

 

[Stuart Watson]

Far more valid than watching some “shite” assembled by a bent journalist taking backhanders from GM and N Vidia

 

[Stuart Watson]

I wouldn't be so sure about the 98% guess of yours. Definitely not true about buying FSD rebuy rate. Tesla still makes pretty good EV's, though for me personally their change in service and warranty policies combines with production quality issues and continued experimentation on customers made me stop buying Teslas after Model 3 flood and the laser focus on profit.



I suggest you watch the recent "Elon Musk's Crash Course" documentary, which includes interviews with the AP developers. Spoiler alert, developers told him it was not possible, but he ignored them. So no, he doesn't trust them.

If you disagree with my 98% (of users of this forum would buy another Tesla)

Pray tell, what is your estimate?

 

[Metralla]

With no intervention from you?

Correct. I had to learn the difference between thinking it was making a mistake and realizing there are just differences between FSD and what I would do instinctively.

There are still places I know the current version (again 10.11.2) will make mistakes that I will disengage for, but I've also found that patience can go a long way.

 

[Metralla]

Even if Metralla's statement is accurate, that doesn't mean Tesla will achieve what people thinks Elon's talking about when he says these things. People think Elon is talking about full Robotaxi functionality everywhere and at all times, aka Level 5.

There are "zero-disengagement" drives on YouTube from probably over a year ago. Watch one of those, then go watch a video from another part of the US where FSD will mistake a red light for an adjacent green light and try to plow a vehicle through an intersection on a red while running the exact same version on the same day as the "zero-disengagement" drive.

One person's narrow experience does not reflect FSD as a whole, two people using the same version of FSD on the same day can have totally different results. Heck you can do the same route twice back to back and have totally different results, or try the same route in one direction and then the other direction back.

Do you have the Beta? I've been on since October and I use it a lot, and have never had a mistake on the light color.

Currently it even correctly detects flashing yellow arrows for left turns.

 

[AndrewZ]

Do you have the Beta? I've been on since October and I use it a lot, and have never had a mistake on the light color.

Currently it even correctly detects flashing yellow arrows for left turns.

Nope but have been following all of the Beta testers from the very beginning of the program up until 10.12.x. Do you watch other Beta testers?

I can dig out a handful of clips from my YouTube history showing light colour mistakes as recently as 10.10-10.11. The cameras have no problem picking up the colours, there are less common issues with things like accurately tying the specific light to the lane the vehicle is in.

You need to watch the full Beta program to really get the entire picture, there are so many contextual differences in experience even just based on geographical location.

 

[Walkingbird]

It’s a marketing strategy. To Keeps folks interested .

 

[whitex]

That particular documentary was utter
Lies and omissions!

I’m shocked anyone would take it seriously.

Can I recommend you download the “investor day videos “. You can see the interaction between Elon and his key AI and hardware teams.
Of course he trusts them , he’s on the same ****ing stage, delivering the same message!

And how do you decide whether the documentary or the investor day videos are lies and omissions? Given the Tesla created video of FSD in the Tesla Design Studio in 2016, it would suggest that it's Tesla is a master in deception, omissions, and straight out lies. While the documentary talks about how they made this video, we don't need to rely on that, history tells us all we need there - Tesla said they are almost there, pending only verification and regulatory approvals, that the video was showing the capabilities of that finished system in 2016. We all know it was total staged BS based purely on the fact that none of that made it into production while Teslas kept on crashing into emergency vehicles and killing a few people - if they really had this technology finished like they said, why didn't they deploy it at least to avoid smashing into things? So either that Tesla video was a total "lies and omissions" as you call it, or Tesla intentionally withheld crucial safety software updates for years. What do you think?

Either way, given Teslas history of past videos and other claims (no shortage of Elon claims which we now know were not true, "3 months maybe, 6 months for sure", "coast to coast by end of 2017", "problem already solved", "P85D 700hp car", etc, etc.) Elon and his videos have zero credibility.

 

[whitex]

If you disagree with my 98% (of users of this forum would buy another Tesla)

Pray tell, what is your estimate?

I don't know, but a quick read through the forum will tell you 98% is very unlikely, even though this is a Tesla forum.

Perhaps create a poll, see what results you get.

 

[AndrewZ]

Plenty of people love Tesla vehicles and what they've done for EVs while simultaneously thinking FSD has been and continues being a debacle

Lest us not forget this FSD demo video was posted in 2016

https://imgur.com/836tATY

 

[Johann Koeber]

There are many more nuances to this

- FSD requires solving AGI
- solving AGI is a singularity
- singularity is impossible to predict
- your can always hit a local optimum und need to start over (has happened, might happen again)

This has become clear over the years. If impossible to predict, I do not fault Elon for putting out his best guess.

From the cited article (if accurate at all) we cannot conclude how good the FSD works

- under what circumstances
- under what conditions (night, day, lane markings, difficult traffic situations, extreme weather ...)
- where
- what hardware upgrades might be required

Nothing is mentioned about regulatory approval.

So a far ways to go. Am I excited? Yes. Have I paid for it in my 2018 MX in Germany? Yes.

But I don't hold my breath.

 

[Stuart Watson]

And how do you decide whether the documentary or the investor day videos are lies and omissions? Given the Tesla created video of FSD in the Tesla Design Studio in 2016, it would suggest that it's Tesla is a master in deception, omissions, and straight out lies. While the documentary talks about how they made this video, we don't need to rely on that, history tells us all we need there - Tesla said they are almost there, pending only verification and regulatory approvals, that the video was showing the capabilities of that finished system in 2016. We all know it was total staged BS based purely on the fact that none of that made it into production while Teslas kept on crashing into emergency vehicles and killing a few people - if they really had this technology finished like they said, why didn't they deploy it at least to avoid smashing into things? So either that Tesla video was a total "lies and omissions" as you call it, or Tesla intentionally withheld crucial safety software updates for years. What do you think?

Either way, given Teslas history of past videos and other claims (no shortage of Elon claims which we now know were not true, "3 months maybe, 6 months for sure", "coast to coast by end of 2017", "problem already solved", "P85D 700hp car", etc, etc.) Elon and his videos have zero credibility.

Unbelievable naivety !
You watch too much daytime TV

 

[Stuart Watson]

I don't know, but a quick read through the forum will tell you 98% is very unlikely, even though this is a Tesla forum.

Perhaps create a poll, see what results you get.

Reading the forum … I’m sticking to my figure !

 

[Metralla]

Nope but have been following all of the Beta testers from the very beginning of the program up until 10.12.x. Do you watch other Beta testers?

I can dig out a handful of clips from my YouTube history showing light colour mistakes as recently as 10.10-10.11. The cameras have no problem picking up the colours, there are less common issues with things like accurately tying the specific light to the lane the vehicle is in.

You need to watch the full Beta program to really get the entire picture, there are so many contextual differences in experience even just based on geographical location.

I watch quite a few but seldom feel enlightened even by the best of them. I almost certainly had more miles in the last 8 months than most, and used it as a daily tool rather than trying to challenge the system.

It certainly has had challenges, but I expected that, it's a beta and the notes said very clearly that serious problems could occur. And they did-but the entire experience has improved immensely.

I strongly urge people not to judge by the videos on YouTube- and making negative comments about FSD Beta based on someone's video just doesn't make sense. You are actually judging the video-not the program.

 

[whitex]

Unbelievable naivety !
You watch too much daytime TV

Ah, you ran out of arguments, so just throwing empty accusations I see. Go ahead, try to defend Elons past statements, promises, videos. Start with the FSD video from 2016 (see post #73 above), how Tesla and Elon officially said it was done, just pending validation and regulatory approvals. 6 years later, regulations allow Waymo and few other companies offer self driving taxis, while Tesla still doesn't do anything beyond level 2. What's your theory why that is? Are they are too lazy and have not been able to validate what they already had done in 2016? Or perhaps consider that what they had in 2016 was a hardcoded drive for a very specific loop, which had to be dome many times to be successful once - in other words, smoke and mirrors.

 

[dbldwn02]

Given we all (proudly) own Tesla‘s … and I’m guessing 98% of us would buy another Tesla, this thread has astonished me.

Count me in the 2%...Love my Tesla, but will never buy another one...

Just picked up my Ioniq5 SEL/AWD, today! Came with Hyundai's version of "Autopilot." Not a single phantom braking incident on the 85 mile ride home from Denver.
This thing is a true competitor on almost every level. (I didn't say Tesla Killer)
- 256/303 miles of range (AWD/RWD)
- $20k less (including FedTaxCredit) than a Model Y. Ouchie.
- You don't have to wait 6-10 months for one.
- You also don't have to 'buy' FSD to get it faster.

Anyone who believes in the EV revolution yet won't consider an EV other than Tesla, is a fanboy. I was one...not anymore. Your Tesla is not your wife...you can buy a different brand without issues...I promise.

 

[Cheburashka]

Agree, like the car, hate the company. Tired of Elons empty promises.. will not buy another and telling others to not buy as well.