Full Self Driving without Assistance by this time Next Year - Musk

[2101Guy]

He might have been wrong the first time he said it but he’s been saying it for over 5 years now. And he’s handed $10K or so per car every time someone takes him at his word, and a large number of people do add it to their cars. So he’s fairly richly rewarded for being “wrong”. Even the thickest of us eventually get the message that FSD isn’t close. Then remember those videos of the car going from place to place without any driver intervention. Those videos were later found to be faked. Faked videos define a point at which the stench of lies became unmistakeable.

queue up the usual fanbois to chime in saying "you are wrong elon doesnt get any FSD dollars because he cant claim revenue on FSD yet", or some other lame mumbo jumbo they typically attempt to defend Elon with. At this point, its borderline insane to continually defend his ongoing and repeated FSD promises that are at a minimum, unrealistic

 

[DerbyDave]

This is correct. If FSD Beta is enabled, and AP is activated on a non-highway road (e.g. those that show the full visualization), the car WILL change lanes automatically regardless of whether you are navigating to an address or not. I do find it somewhat amusing (and perplexing) when my car will just change from one lane to the next every few minutes for no reason and with no traffic around me.

NoA in its current form only applies to highways and freeways where the new beta visualizations are not being displayed. If auto lane change is disabled, NoA will not change lanes on highways whether it is active or not.

The "confirm lane change" option is only used with the NoA software stack. It is not used with the FSD Beta. As far as I know, there is no way to control whether FSD Beta will initiate a lane change or not but I believe you can set the frequency of the changes. And yes - I often have to cancel out of AP to correct/cancel a lane change attempt.

Thanks for that confirmation. It will be nice when Tesla develops one unified auto drive function with the same rules and visualizations. I find all the different modes confusing. Autosteer beta, navigate on autopilot beta, and two flavors of full self driving beta... Or is Navigate on autopilot now called full self driving beta 1?

 

[dannycamps]

Thanks for that confirmation. It will be nice when Tesla develops one unified auto drive function with the same rules and visualizations. I find all the different modes confusing. Autosteer beta, navigate on autopilot beta, and two flavors of full self driving beta... Or is Navigate on autopilot now called full self driving beta 1?

Completely agree here. Elon has said (yeah I know) that FSD v11 will be a unified stack but who knows if and when that will happen.

 

[Stuart Watson]

Here's a guy who owns TSLA, has had 6 Tesla cars, CT reservations, etc...

Ioniq 5

NEWS FLASH~! Decided to take the leap tonight to IONIC 5. This waiting, 4180 perpetual mystery, color limitations, Giga Texas, Giga nowhere, reduced range, and the increased price among same-looking cars, has just gotten to me. Secrets, delays, secrets, promises, delays, more secrets...

teslamotorsclub.com

He loves his new Ioniq5. That's why @Cheburashka would say that....

He’s a funny guy !
Very humorus !

But a you-tuber. His aim is to produce entertainment and “watchable content” you do see that don’t you ?

Maybe not

 

[dbldwn02]

He’s a funny guy !
Very humorus !

But a you-tuber. His aim is to produce entertainment and “watchable content” you do see that don’t you ?

Maybe not

You didn't read the post. The TMC post isn't the video. The video is for entertainment.

 

[Stuart Watson]

You didn't read the post. The TMC post isn't the video. The video is for entertainment.

?

 

[zigmeister]

I'll bet the farm on it he is 100% wrong and more lies. Just ask for one example and I will provide it. Can't fix nature, that should give you a hint how this camera system and AP is entirely flawed and garbage.

 

[DerbyDave]

Also, with the Vision Only camera system, it won't be able to see much better than we can in bad weather or at night, and will have all the same limitations, if not more. So the FSD being developed will only be when the weather is nice, no snow or icy conditions, limited at night, and when the sun is low and shining in the camera, etc. Tesla may get it to work in good visibility on good roads with normal good signage and markings, and with added limitations at night (speed in particular). It will never be a 4 or 5 level full self driving system, might make it to 3, meaning means that the driver can hand over control to the vehicle, but must be ready to take over when prompted. No robotaxi will be possible.

 

[EVNow]

I had to check the date again - not sure why this is news or a separate thread with 6 pages of replies. Afterall Musk has said this same thing several years in a row now and it has been discussed ad nauseum.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Also, with the Vision Only camera system, it won't be able to see much better than we can in bad weather or at night, and will have all the same limitations, if not more. So the FSD being developed will only be when the weather is nice, no snow or icy conditions, limited at night, and when the sun is low and shining in the camera, etc. Tesla may get it to work in good visibility on good roads with normal good signage and markings, and with added limitations at night (speed in particular). It will never be a 4 or 5 level full self driving system, might make it to 3, meaning means that the driver can hand over control to the vehicle, but must be ready to take over when prompted. No robotaxi will be possible.

Existing robotaxis deployed by Waymo and Cruise have weather limitations. Cruise robotaxis currently operate only at night. Robotaxis can have many limitations and still be Level 4.

I had to check the date again - not sure why this is news or a separate thread with 6 pages of replies. Afterall Musk has said this same thing several years in a row now and it has been discussed ad nauseum.

This time is different.

 

[Stuart Watson]

I'll bet the farm on it he is 100% wrong and more lies. Just ask for one example and I will provide it. Can't fix nature, that should give you a hint how this camera system and AP is entirely flawed and garbage.

This post won’t age well !

 

[Raurele]

Completely agree here. Elon has said (yeah I know) that FSD v11 will be a unified stack but who knows if and when that will happen.

Single stack is currently running in the background already.

 

[DerbyDave]

Existing robotaxis deployed by Waymo and Cruise have weather limitations. Cruise robotaxis currently operate only at night. Robotaxis can have many limitations and still be Level 4.

This time is different.

Waymo and Cruise use 360 Lidar, and are limited in the areas they serve, so they can optimize the programming for all of those specific roads. Tesla can't do that for all cars, but they could set up limited robotaxi areas, and if the robotaxi tries to go outside of that area, it could just stop, and the external speaker could tell you to get out, and maybe fart.

 

[EVNow]

Also, with the Vision Only camera system, it won't be able to see much better than we can in bad weather or at night, and will have all the same limitations, if not more. So the FSD being developed will only be when the weather is nice, no snow or icy conditions, limited at night, and when the sun is low and shining in the camera, etc. Tesla may get it to work in good visibility on good roads with normal good signage and markings, and with added limitations at night (speed in particular). It will never be a 4 or 5 level full self driving system, might make it to 3, meaning means that the driver can hand over control to the vehicle, but must be ready to take over when prompted. No robotaxi will be possible.

AP sees/works better than me at night when it’s raining.

 

[EVNow]

Waymo and Cruise use 360 Lidar, and are limited in the areas they serve, so they can optimize the programming for all of those specific roads.

Thats not the point - you were claiming that because Tesla uses only vision, they won't be able to handle inclement whether. @Daniel in SD pointed out that even companies who use $100k sensors don't operate in inclement whether.

And I pointed out above that AutoPilot does very well at night, even in rain. Infact better than I do.

BTW, compared to when we started, FSD Beta handles inclement whether better now. Earlier for even light rain it would fall back to AP. Now only in heavy rain it falls back to AP.

 

[DerbyDave]

No, you missed the point. I am saying that because Tesla is only vision, they will not be able to provide Musk's claimed FSD without intervention, ever. It will never go beyond Level 3 Autonomous Driving Standard -- if that. Waymo and Cruise (and others) have a much better chance to succeed because they will have more factual data (vision, radar, lidar, and other inputs) to possibly implement a level 4 or 5 system. Obviously, this would require microphones to hear sirens and other emergency sounds, handle funerals (different laws in different states), closed roads, roads under construction, etc. My car doesn't even have an external microphone, yet it is FSD ready according to Musk. All you need is Vision, and he can do it, he says. Tesla even with a microphone would only be able to tell the driver to take control and handle the emergency vehicles. Wrecks in front of you, stalled cars, and the Tesla standard miss-- 18 wheel tractor trailer trucks crossways across the interstate, history shows Tesla doesn't see them. I hope I am wrong for the future, but I doubt it.

 

[Supcom]

Obviously, this would require microphones to hear sirens and other emergency sounds

Deaf people drive cars, no not obvious at all.

 

[DerbyDave]

Good one I guess. If you think Tesla will be able to emulate a human's situational awareness of approaching emergency vehicles, and make the required decisions to legally comply, particularly without sound, I agree with you that by this time next year Tesla will achieve Musk's fantasy. I can tell you trust entirely in Musk and his timetable. We differ.

 

[qdeathstar]

Tesla can't even program the Infotainment Systems correctly. Yet Musk says Full Self Driving without Driver Intervention by this time next year.
Elon Musk says Tesla will have self-driving cars without need for human driver this time next year

Why does he do this for? Why!?

 

[nvx1977]

Good one I guess. If you think Tesla will be able to emulate a human's situational awareness of approaching emergency vehicles, and make the required decisions to legally comply, particularly without sound, I agree with you that by this time next year Tesla will achieve Musk's fantasy. I can tell you trust entirely in Musk and his timetable. We differ.

Sound is not as important as you make it out to be. Humans blast music in their cars without causing accidents. If they did, sound systems would have been regulated by now. It's likely we're going to be able to hit L4/5 autonomy without the need to hear everything around the car.

Also, people can believe that vision-only can some day result in a L4/5 system without believing Musk's estimates. You should probably stop assuming what other people think.