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MiamiNole
Member
I would think this is what most people are expecting when talking about the Model 3 having lower priced options than the S and X. 50% is kind of a ridiculous expectation. I would be ecstatic if Model 3 option prices were 75-80% of Model S prices. But I'm not expecting that. I'm really just hoping for the price of the larger battery packs come down and that supercharging is included. Those are probably the two most important "options" to Model 3 buyers, and Model 3 economy-of-scale doesn't really affect the cost of those.
Canuck
Well-Known Member
The gigafactory will certainly help battery prices to come down. It has to since they can't build a base model for $35k without a reduction in current battery costs. So really, the reduced battery price is already built into the price of the Model 3. As for Supercharging, given the supercharger credit system it seems unlikely that the Model 3 will have unlimited supercharging for long distance travel. But it's all still anyone's guess.
I have no doubt in my mind a fully loaded Model 3 will exceed $90kUS, which makes it close to $120kCan. My only hope for a cheaper fully loaded Model 3 comes by way of Donald Trump. Yes, with a Trump victory there could be a destabilised US economy, making Canada a safe-haven for investors, and combine that with rise in oil prices, and our dollar could go back over par...
If a ~55-60kWh Model S costs $35K, and makes a decent profit, enough to be OK with selling only base models...how much of that price would be the 210 cells and associated fuses/wiring/cooling?
Chassis, big motor, inverter, controller, charging equipment, battery casing, (48V?) system, cabling, camaras, 4 wheels, stereo, coach, seats, compartements, all this is deducted from the car's price.
Let's say at $200/kWh, $12K worth of battery cells.
Upgrading to 100kWh, providing there's room in the pack, should add only $8K ($43K) and profit margin would still be OK. Now obviously they'll sell the extra range at a sick premium, as established in the P100DL release.
So if a worthy challenger hits the market with goof kWh production costs, it might stand the best change at beating Tesla by not overcharging larger battery pack, in a base car. Say a bland VW Golf 100kWh. They might not make great margin, but it would sell really well when beating or even matching the Model 3 100. So many VW dealers around.
Eventually kWh costs for owners will have to come down, especially on larger battery options.
Chassis, big motor, inverter, controller, charging equipment, battery casing, (48V?) system, cabling, camaras, 4 wheels, stereo, coach, seats, compartements, all this is deducted from the car's price.
Let's say at $200/kWh, $12K worth of battery cells.
Upgrading to 100kWh, providing there's room in the pack, should add only $8K ($43K) and profit margin would still be OK. Now obviously they'll sell the extra range at a sick premium, as established in the P100DL release.
So if a worthy challenger hits the market with goof kWh production costs, it might stand the best change at beating Tesla by not overcharging larger battery pack, in a base car. Say a bland VW Golf 100kWh. They might not make great margin, but it would sell really well when beating or even matching the Model 3 100. So many VW dealers around.
Eventually kWh costs for owners will have to come down, especially on larger battery options.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
Tesla Motors will happily sell ten $65,000 Model ☰ for every one of the $150,000 Model S they sell. In the US, that might mean as many as 250,000-to-300,000 Model ☰ and 25,000-to-30,000 Model S each year. They'll be fine.
It'd be crazy if supercharging wasn't included with the biggest battery option.
There are now of course more and more other decently quick charging options. And not every region/country gets SC coverage worth paying a non-optional extra $3000 of whatever for. What's against transparency and choosing yourself what you pay for? Plus, there may be the credit system to make it all a non-issue.
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I don't know all the bean-counting and accounting variables, but the unlimited option should still be made available. Tacking it on with the biggest battery is what I call a valid compromise where the buyer is slightly less cost-sensitive.
ummgood
Member
I am still under the assumption that a Model 3 will be competing with the A4 Audi and the BMW 3 series. I am not including the BMW M3 into this equation because it is a different car with different suspension, body panels, seats, etc... The entire car except for the frame is upgraded for track. I would consider a PXXD Model 3 to compete with a sport series 340 or something like that. Then have Ludicrous be an extra cost on top of whatever the top price for a 340 sport or S4 Audi costs.
With that said here are the top of the range prices for the competitors....
Audi S4 Premium - 65.5k with every option. Upgraded wheels, paint, nappa seats, black optic, sport diff, adaptive suspension, AWD automatic, rear airbags and driver assist.
BMW 340xi M Sport - 62.6k with every option. M Sport, Track Package, Leather, Cold Weather, Driver Assist Plus, Lighting Package, & Tech Package
With this said I think Tesla if they want to really compete where they said they want to should price a fully loaded PXXD at 65k +/-.
I think the PXXD without Ludicrous is basically in the same class as the cars above. If they want to win over petrol buyers they'll need to strategically sell the M3 in the same ballpark loaded as the cars above. This assumes Supercharger equipped but with pay as you go charging.
I still don't think it is fair to compare a PXXDL with a BMW M3 convertible (I saw this price comparison in another thread.). The BMW M3 has a bunch of carbon fiber body components (real ones not just a spoiler) and every body panel is different to account for the huge tires. Even the mirrors are custom. When you order a PXXDL you don't get a completely different car. You get a PXXD with quicker 0-60 times. I think the PXXD is going to be in the same ballpark as the S4 or the 340xi M Sport with Track package. So I think the top price will be in the ballpark of those cars + 10k for Ludicrous so around 75k. That is where I voted.
Personally I am hoping I can get a PXXD (might skip on Ludicrous) with some of the option boxes not checked for about 60k. Honestly if the PXXD falls into the 75 to 80k without Ludi I am going to probably not buy at this time... It is just too hard to justify the purchase. I also don't fall into the gas savings with electric at this point because I am paying ultra cheap gas prices here in Texas. When I plug in my data into the calculator it will save me about 2k over 5 years compared to my TRUCK. If I had a 3 series or S5 I would get much better mileage so the savings is even less.
I really really really really want a Tesla but it really has to be reasonable. I think reasonable means it should be the same cost and interior quality of the cars mentioned above. I should then be able to option it down to get it into my ballpark. These 100k guesses by some here make me cringe. That isn't a mass market car price AND on top of that I know they want to make a profit but if BMW and Audi can make profits on well equipped cars in the same class that are loaded for 65k it isn't that far fetched to expect Tesla to have to do the same if they truly want electric to be an alternative to gas cars.
With that said here are the top of the range prices for the competitors....
Audi S4 Premium - 65.5k with every option. Upgraded wheels, paint, nappa seats, black optic, sport diff, adaptive suspension, AWD automatic, rear airbags and driver assist.
BMW 340xi M Sport - 62.6k with every option. M Sport, Track Package, Leather, Cold Weather, Driver Assist Plus, Lighting Package, & Tech Package
With this said I think Tesla if they want to really compete where they said they want to should price a fully loaded PXXD at 65k +/-.
I think the PXXD without Ludicrous is basically in the same class as the cars above. If they want to win over petrol buyers they'll need to strategically sell the M3 in the same ballpark loaded as the cars above. This assumes Supercharger equipped but with pay as you go charging.
I still don't think it is fair to compare a PXXDL with a BMW M3 convertible (I saw this price comparison in another thread.). The BMW M3 has a bunch of carbon fiber body components (real ones not just a spoiler) and every body panel is different to account for the huge tires. Even the mirrors are custom. When you order a PXXDL you don't get a completely different car. You get a PXXD with quicker 0-60 times. I think the PXXD is going to be in the same ballpark as the S4 or the 340xi M Sport with Track package. So I think the top price will be in the ballpark of those cars + 10k for Ludicrous so around 75k. That is where I voted.
Personally I am hoping I can get a PXXD (might skip on Ludicrous) with some of the option boxes not checked for about 60k. Honestly if the PXXD falls into the 75 to 80k without Ludi I am going to probably not buy at this time... It is just too hard to justify the purchase. I also don't fall into the gas savings with electric at this point because I am paying ultra cheap gas prices here in Texas. When I plug in my data into the calculator it will save me about 2k over 5 years compared to my TRUCK. If I had a 3 series or S5 I would get much better mileage so the savings is even less.
I really really really really want a Tesla but it really has to be reasonable. I think reasonable means it should be the same cost and interior quality of the cars mentioned above. I should then be able to option it down to get it into my ballpark. These 100k guesses by some here make me cringe. That isn't a mass market car price AND on top of that I know they want to make a profit but if BMW and Audi can make profits on well equipped cars in the same class that are loaded for 65k it isn't that far fetched to expect Tesla to have to do the same if they truly want electric to be an alternative to gas cars.
N5329K
Active Member
Agree completely. And this: if you want to compete against those marques, even at base price, you're going to have to up your interior game substantially. I get "minimalism" and appreciate it, but you can't charge BMW/Audi prices and ship cars with Ikea interiors.
Robin
Robin
Although I have guessed that the Model 3 top end pricing would probably be much more than you suggest, you are presenting cogent arguments also. Frankly, we have no way to know the thinking at Tesla except by inference from Model S and X. Roadster was another case entirely so I do not think of that as relevant.
I am fairly sure that the Ludicrous models, at least, will carry a substantial premium and will be more comparable to M BMW than to cheaper models. We do already know from Elon that AWD will be about $5,000 premium, which maybe should be a prima facie argument against my logic. However, we also know that Ludicrous itself was priced at $10,000 when it was an option for P85D. That was a very high price but impeded sales very little, of so it seems.
I do think the biggest volumes will be well below the full loaded versions, but even teh History of tesla itself right now shows us their positioning. Model S today shows a 90D for $50,000 less than a P100D otherwise identically equipped. Any way we look at taht is a fantastic premium for "the latest and greatest". We'll see Model 3 with similar relative choices, I think. No argument at all, if rationality has anything to do with it, nobody would buy a P100D like the one I just speced in preference to a 90D
ummgood
Member
I hope you are wrong about the M models. Honestly I should be able to get a PXXD for the same rough ballpark as a BMW with an M-sport package or a Audi "S" model. If you do an honest assessment of the BMW "M" cars they really are a different animal. I could accept your point IF the Model 3 Ludicrous was also highly modified above and beyond a more capable fuse and crazy acceleration.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
Fans of BMW have said similar things for years. I remain unconvinced. In my opinion such statements are complete, total, utter, and absolute [FLOCKING BOLSHEVIK]. And you can quote me on that, for the record. This is like saying the Shelby Cobra is a 'different car' than the Mustang, or that the Z28 is a 'different car' than the Camaro, or that the Stingray, ZR1, or Z06 is a 'different car' than the Corvette. No. In each case those are different trim and tuning levels on the SAME car. And for future reference, the FRAME is the CAR. Yes, the Buick GNX is still a Regal. Despite a multitude of similarities, a 1964 Volkswagen Beetle is a different car from the Porsche 911 from the same model year. There isn't even as much difference between a BMW 340i and an M3 as there is between an AUDI A4 and a Volkswagen Jetta.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
There is a difference between 'Appearance and Convenience' packages and 'Performance' options. You'll probably be able to spend around $15,000 in options for a base Model ☰ and have something that looks really good, and still blows the doors off a BMW 340i. I expect you'll also be able to add $15,000 in options to a Model ☰ P100D and come to a total substantially lower than the maximum that can be spent to purchase an M3 -- and still be able to blow its doors off too.
All these cars are going to get demolished by the Tesla Model ☰:
Garlan Garner
Banned
Rule of thumb: Be careful when your competition agrees with you.
BMW seems to think that their 3 series IS the equation.
ummgood
Member
Ok maybe I misspoke a bit. Sure the car isn't a 'different' car but from a amount of modifications compared to another they are significantly different products. I still disagree that there isn't much difference between a 340i and a BMW M3. Every single body panel I have seen is different. Fenders, quarter panels, roof, hood, bumpers, trunk, mirrors are all different. Maybe they take the seats from the M3 and put them in the M Sport but I am not sure about that. Motor, transmission, suspension components, are all different. So maybe some of the plastics in the interior are different. I think even the gauges are different if I am not mistaken.
Now take that info and compare a PXXD Model S to a PXXDL Model S. How many differences are there? As far as I know (please correct me if I am wrong...) the PXXDL is a fuse upgrade and that is the only difference besides for software in the cabin over a PXXD. Tesla can charge what they want but when you consider the price difference between a 340i and an M3 there is a LOT of difference between the two.
This is similar to a Corvette Z06/ZR1 or a base model. Lots of changes to the car. Same with a shelby vs a Mustang GT. lots of differences in body work. I just don't see the differences besides for acceleration on the PXXD and the PXXDL and the badge in the back.
I agree it is a much better car. I am not arguing that. I am just using the statement that the competition for the Model 3 are the German lux midsized cars so I used that to figure out how I would come up with a price estimate. If the Model 3 is going to compete with the M3 I expect to see wider tires, beefier fender wells, some aero tweaks. That type of stuff and the engine/transmission is the price difference between a 340i sport and a M3.
BMW thinks it is a good car and I honestly think it is. I think the Model 3 is better but my argument is the pricing of the Model 3 and why I think that comparing the top priced spec'd BMW M3 to the Tesla Model 3 isn't a real good comparison based on the reasons I stated above. I think if the Model 3 is priced at the 340i M Sport loaded (without ludicrous) then it will easily beat out the BMW in sales. I think if the top priced Model 3 is in the 90k and 100k range then it will be a harder sell.
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
I have no idea why people put so much value on the window dressing that appears in 'luxury' vehicles. It is as if they honestly believe that stuff costs a lot of money or something. It doesn't. That stuff is pretty cheap, and is marked up by many multiples in order to reach a given minimum profit margin on a relatively low volume of vehicles. Even the renowned marques have entry level vehicles that reviewers will complain 'look cheap', 'feel cheap', or 'sound cheap' within their interiors, even when it is a good design. I do not expect the base version of Model ☰ to deliver 'luxury' as would a Cadillac ATS or Lexus IS at all.
N5329K
Active Member
I think the last Cadillac I sat in had red tuck and roll "velvet" upholstery. That's not the route I'm hoping Tesla will emulate. Sit in a BMW 3 series, or a Mercedes C class, or an Audi A3. They have well executed, clean and unornamented interiors that look well designed, using high quality materials. The seats are supportive and wrap you well. Feel the finishes and they seem solid, not cheesy. No wiggle, no flex, no rattle. The cabin rewards the senses. Not like a 7 series, or an S Class. But they look and feel "right" in a way that early Model S and X's didn't. The new S's are a lot better in this respect, and my guess is this reflects TMC getting better at building cars.
Robin
Robin
Red Sage
The Cybernetic Samurai
And all the exact same mounting points for those components exist in the lower range vehicle. Not some, not half, but every single one of them. So, if someone chose to purchase them, or fabricate their own, in the aftermarket, they could stick all those very same things in or on the car. There is nothing about the suspension, motor, wheels, tires, or spoilers that cannot be stuck on a BMW 320i instead. Even if the body panels are different materials or sizes and shapes, they are still styled to LOOK like the original version at a glance -- just like on a Mustang or Camaro. Only the most discerning of fans will be able to spy the differences in passing.
You can't have it both ways, Man. Fans of European 'sports sedans' have for decades decried the 'boy racer' aspects of design found on American and Japanese performance cars. Cosmetics of the sort you describe do not prevent the Model S P100D from thoroughly embarrassing each and every Alpina B7, AUDI A8 L, Mercedes-AMG S-Class, or Porsche Panamera. There is no need for special scoops, and spoilers, and wings, and farings, and bolsters, and grilles, and whatnot to differentiate an ELECTRIC car. Fact of the matter is the various Si, RS, SE, S, M, and whatever designators on cars are almost entirely cosmetic in nature. The 'P' and 'D' and underline on a Tesla Motors product mean something worthwhile, deliver a substantial improvement on an already superior product, and better than just showing you can burn more gallons of gasoline per minute. If you want to further differentiate the 'look' of your personal vehicle, to be more 'aggressive' that is what custom aftermarket shops are for. Whatever happened to the 'understated elegance' that is derived from being a 'sleeper Q-car'...?
Well, at least you see the exact 'difference' that actually matters. The difference is in the acceleration, where it belongs. In a proper Performance car, any difference in appearance should be specifically to affect PERFORMANCE. Not for the sake of cosmetics and styling. If Shelby, Lingenfelter, or Callaway add a grille or vent to a car, that is because it is either an intake or exhaust port. If they make the tires wider, it is because they need to be in order to put the power to the ground and improve handling. If they add more in one place, they take away from somewhere else to balance the design. And if it doesn't make the car perform better, it doesn't go on the car. When Elon first introduced the Model S P85D they were originally going to all be the same: staggered 21" wheels and tires, air suspension, panoramic roof, carbon fibre rear decklid spoiler, RED brake covers, BLACK Premium interior with Next Generation Seats by RECARO, and the Tech package with Autopilot. He probably wanted the car to only be available in all BLACK too, but relented. Amid complaints from buyers who wanted more choice, Tesla Motors allowed them to go with springs, 19" wheels and tires, and other interior colors if they liked -- for less money -- unbundling what was a more definitive and specific package at first.
My argument is that you did so in a rather backwards manner. Even now, if you look up pricing for either the base price or fully loaded cost of Performance oriented direct competitors to the Model S P100D, each of them costs more. Whether AUDI, BMW/Alpina, Mercedes-AMG, or a Porsche Turbo S vehicle, the Model S is a bargain compared to them all. I expect the same to be the case with the Model ☰ when compared to its 'peers'. Thus, the base price for the Model ☰ in Performance trim will likely be in the same range as the AUDI S4 and Infiniti Q50 RED Sport 400 than the BMW M3, Mercedes-AMG C43/C63, Cadillac ATS-V, or Alfa Romeo Giulia Quadrifoglio. And by the way...? Per the EPA, those competitors to Model ☰ are all Compact cars in the US, not Midsize.
Here the thing is... People have continually pointed to the BMW M3 as the benchmark for Performance and Pricing. They have stated multiple times that there is 'no way' Tesla Motors will offer that level of Performance for LESS money than BMW. My argument has always been that Tesla absolutely WILL sell the maximum Performance version of the Model ☰ for substantially less money than BMW will continue to ask for the M3. The top Model ☰ will be a bargain compared to an M3 the same way a Model S P90D or P100D is a bargain compared to a Porsche Panamera Turbo S or Alpina B7. The Model ☰ will have no trouble whatsoever beating the entire BMW 3-Series -- including the M3 -- in Performance and Sales.
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