I am sharing information and opinions which I believe is very close to a slam dunk. But please be careful with your hard earned money. Please do your own research and DD before investing. Please don't invest money that you can't afford to lose!
That said, in the past quite a few TMC Members funded their Model S purchases by buying TSLA. I believe that buying shares to fund a Model 3 purchase is extremely safe, almost as safe as shooting fish in a barrel. OTOH between now and whenever Tesla has produced over 100k M3's I think it could be a bumpy ride, which means that even though I believe that shares purchased now, for about $200 will be worth at least $350 when the M3 production has ramped, I would not be shocked if it dips to $150 at some point between now and then. If that would be stressful for you I'd advise you not to do this!
It also means that buying options is a much riskier strategy. Please don't buy options unless you are very knowledgeable! I'll might post on this thread when and why I believe buying options is relatively safe. In the meantime educate yourself as much as possible about investing in general, and about investing in TSLA.
It's important to note that a major reason that this opportunity is so huge are the problems Tesla has had ramping the MX production. This was due to the fact that the MX is an extremely difficult car to build. If they had designed and built a conventional SUV, which would have been about as difficult to build as the MS there is every reason to think that the results would have been similar.
Tesla sold more than 50,000 Model S sedans in 2015, a new annual record
Income (profits), driven by car sales, has always been the major determinant of Tesla's share price (SP).
From "Elon Musk" by Ashlee Vance Page 342:
Elon's projection for 2018 MS-MS plus M3 production:
To put the effect of the M3 on the SP in perspective a major issue now for the SP is the ability of Tesla to produce 50k cars in the second half of 2016. When they have the M3 production line running smoothly they will be producing over 40k per month off MS-MS plus M3! Even if that slips by 12-24 month's (chances close to zero IMO), that only delays the SP increase.
In the very near future stationary storage (TE) will start to have a huge impact on profits. At the 2016 shareholders meeting Elon said that (he said this was highly speculative) that he thinks that the revenue from TE will be equal to the revenue from cars, and that it will grow faster. That would be the revenue equivalent to 250k (projected) cars in 2017.
The following estimate for SP, based higher vehicle deliveries, and not considering the impact of Tesla Energy Storage (TE) was posted on Jan 6, 2014. about 2 years before the M3 reveal, and the accelerated ramp plans were announced.
Notes:
1. I added numbers in brackets "projected by Elon", next to DaveT's numbers.
2. If we add the TE revenue equivalent to about 250k cars to Elon's projection of 500k cars we have revenue in 2018 that is greater than the the 700K cars number that DaveT used to calculate his 2019 projected conservative SP of at least $630/share!
3. Even if Tesla sells zero M3's in 2018, between the MS-MX and TE their revenue should be equal to roughly 400k cars, for an SP of about $360!
In other words, if you are saving for an M3 you have a double hedge when buying TSLA. When the M3 ramps the SP will rise, and even if M3 is never produced at all (not going to happen) TE production will cause the SP to rise.
Articles/megaposts by DaveT
That said, in the past quite a few TMC Members funded their Model S purchases by buying TSLA. I believe that buying shares to fund a Model 3 purchase is extremely safe, almost as safe as shooting fish in a barrel. OTOH between now and whenever Tesla has produced over 100k M3's I think it could be a bumpy ride, which means that even though I believe that shares purchased now, for about $200 will be worth at least $350 when the M3 production has ramped, I would not be shocked if it dips to $150 at some point between now and then. If that would be stressful for you I'd advise you not to do this!
It also means that buying options is a much riskier strategy. Please don't buy options unless you are very knowledgeable! I'll might post on this thread when and why I believe buying options is relatively safe. In the meantime educate yourself as much as possible about investing in general, and about investing in TSLA.
It's important to note that a major reason that this opportunity is so huge are the problems Tesla has had ramping the MX production. This was due to the fact that the MX is an extremely difficult car to build. If they had designed and built a conventional SUV, which would have been about as difficult to build as the MS there is every reason to think that the results would have been similar.
Tesla sold more than 50,000 Model S sedans in 2015, a new annual record
Income (profits), driven by car sales, has always been the major determinant of Tesla's share price (SP).
From "Elon Musk" by Ashlee Vance Page 342:
Elon's projection for 2018 MS-MS plus M3 production:
To put the effect of the M3 on the SP in perspective a major issue now for the SP is the ability of Tesla to produce 50k cars in the second half of 2016. When they have the M3 production line running smoothly they will be producing over 40k per month off MS-MS plus M3! Even if that slips by 12-24 month's (chances close to zero IMO), that only delays the SP increase.
In the very near future stationary storage (TE) will start to have a huge impact on profits. At the 2016 shareholders meeting Elon said that (he said this was highly speculative) that he thinks that the revenue from TE will be equal to the revenue from cars, and that it will grow faster. That would be the revenue equivalent to 250k (projected) cars in 2017.
The following estimate for SP, based higher vehicle deliveries, and not considering the impact of Tesla Energy Storage (TE) was posted on Jan 6, 2014. about 2 years before the M3 reveal, and the accelerated ramp plans were announced.
Notes:
1. I added numbers in brackets "projected by Elon", next to DaveT's numbers.
2. If we add the TE revenue equivalent to about 250k cars to Elon's projection of 500k cars we have revenue in 2018 that is greater than the the 700K cars number that DaveT used to calculate his 2019 projected conservative SP of at least $630/share!
3. Even if Tesla sells zero M3's in 2018, between the MS-MX and TE their revenue should be equal to roughly 400k cars, for an SP of about $360!
In other words, if you are saving for an M3 you have a double hedge when buying TSLA. When the M3 ramps the SP will rise, and even if M3 is never produced at all (not going to happen) TE production will cause the SP to rise.
Articles/megaposts by DaveT
