Future Depreciation of Model X in the next 2-5 years

[Tes La Ferrari]

Model X has been the only real SUV EV, but now that's quickly set to change with BMW, Mercedes announcing actual production of iX3, & EQC next year. These could feel arrive in 3-15 months., and the ipace - while a likely model Y competitor is already here. (the reality is people compare it to X & S because that is whats available to day)

Of course Tesla has the supercharging network....but with other options on the horizon, will there be a much more significant drop in Model X values in the next year or 2-5 years ? ( as compared with the Model X depreciation that we have seen from 2016-current ) If so -- what do you think that depreciation might look like ?

 

[DarkHelmet]

I think the biggest driver of depreciation is going to be future MX updates and just the overall evolution of the car. Today’s MX may seem down right archaic in 5-10 years. I just hope they don’t go with the single screen interior. I really like a traditional gauge pod and separate infotainment screen.

In my mind no other vehicle is an option because of the supercharging network. That may change but it’s going to require all manufacturers to agree on a standard architecture of some sort.

 

[kev1n]

i dont think competition will impact X depreciation that quickly. the one main reason X hold their value so well currently is because there is demand and no supply on the used market as there are plenty of people that rather buy one on a discount vs new. that is going to change soon as the X gets to 3-5 year old mark and more used cars are available.

 

[ek993]

Undoubtedly there will be impact once the big brand EV models start hitting the market. Tesla have had it all to themselves so far but that will change. To what degree Tesla residuals are impacted depends greatly on what the big brands strategy looks like (model line up / supercharging infrastructure / support), how well they execute on their strategy - and if they really are whole hearted behind it. Lets not forget they are still predominantly an ICE manufacturer, that's where most of their revenue comes from.

If they end up eating Tesla's lunch, so be it. Tesla will need to continue to innovate and differentiate themselves in order to continue to be the number 1 choice for EV's. Not a bad thing as it will drive new features and hopefully improvements to quality for its customers.

 

[Ruffles]

I'm sure there will be some impact but the Tesla charging network AND the ability to have free supercharging tied to the VIN of the car for future buyers is golden.

 

[ek993]

I'm sure there will be some impact but the Tesla charging network AND the ability to have free supercharging tied to the VIN of the car for future buyers is golden.

Do you mean free supercharging will transfer to future buyers if you sell the car? Because that isn't correct.

 

[welcomewagon]

I'm sure there will be some impact but the Tesla charging network AND the ability to have free supercharging tied to the VIN of the car for future buyers is golden.

Supercharging hasn't been tied to the VIN for a while now, it does not transfer.

 

[Ruffles]

Hmm. I bought a CPO X and I asked about the free supercharging and I was told by Tesla the reason why it was included was that supercharging was tied to the VINs of all the earlier cars and that was why I would get it. I apologize if I was incorrect. I guess Tesla made special accommodations for CPO cars then?

 

[MarkX100D]

My car is a Model X 100D in MC Red, with PUP, white 6 seat interior, EAP, carbon decor and 22” onyx wheels delivered sept 2018 and was priced at £111,600 including taxes and £4500 government ULEV grant.

According to my guaranteed price from Tesla in 2022 with an average mileage of 15,000 per year, the car will be worth £49,000.

So that’s, what, just under 44% of purchase value after 4 years... sounds about right?

I actually think that used prices will rise slightly due to increased demand and folks understanding the longer term ability for batteries and drive train to last the distance.

 

[animorph]

Model X will be a nice, unique, electric car that would be more desirable than any gas car to me and hopefully many others. I think it will take a car generation or two for other car manufacturers to catch up on price, Superchargers, and tech. It can run multiple 100k's of miles, so a used X will likely have many more miles left to go on it than many new gas cars might be expected to achieve.

On the down side, I would worry about how many years the battery will last, what it's end-of-life behavior will be, and what the cost of a replacement will be.

 

[DarkHelmet]

Model X will be a nice, unique, electric car that would be more desirable than any gas car to me and hopefully many others. I think it will take a car generation or two for other car manufacturers to catch up on price, Superchargers, and tech. It can run multiple 100k's of miles, so a used X will likely have many more miles left to go on it than many new gas cars might be expected to achieve.

On the down side, I would worry about how many years the battery will last, what it's end-of-life behavior will be, and what the cost of a replacement will be.

Tesloop Shares Lessons Learned In 400,000 Miles In A Tesla | CleanTechnica

This Tesla Model X Drove 300,000 Miles In 2 Years

 

[TexasRat]

Also a big factor is the fact that the X has a third row. All of the competition seems to fit more into the compact SUV segment rather than full size. One of the main reasons why I bought the X is for the third row. If competitors don't have that, then there is no competition to me.

Honestly though, I do hope a lot of people switch over to other manufacturers. The service centers and part shortages are getting out of hand

In all honesty, I think a lot will have to change before Tesla is at risk. That is a bad thing though, as I don't want them to get complacent. That being said, I really hope they do NOT update the X to have a spartan look and feel. But there already was another thread for praise and complaint about that one ...

 

[tc521]

Increased range is the biggest fear for me. The X is such a nice and comfortable vehicle but limiting it to 300 miles scares me. If Tesla goes to 2170 cells and another 20-30kw I’m afraid our values will drop considerably.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Increased range is the biggest fear for me. The X is such a nice and comfortable vehicle but limiting it to 300 miles scares me. If Tesla goes to 2170 cells and another 20-30kw I’m afraid our values will drop considerably.

Yes... and this is a fairly likely scenario as Tesla will want to stay ahead of the competition...

 

[Canuck]

will there be a much more significant drop in Model X values in the next year or 2-5 years ? ( as compared with the Model X depreciation that we have seen from 2016-current ) If so -- what do you think that depreciation might look like ?

Yes, huge if you bought today and sold in 2 - 5 years. That's just the nature of the product. It's not an investment. It's a significantly depreciating asset -- like a rock falling off a cliff. That should be the image in your mind as you drive off the lot and you think of the money you spent. So best you have your finances in order, your kid's college paid for, etc., before you buy an S or an X, in my view at least.

But, more importantly, look to your investments for appreciation and to your Tesla(s) for a huge increase in your quality of life. That's how I looked at it, plus I was investing in my children's future.

I bought my S before AP in early 2014 and if I had sold it in 2 years my depreciation hit would have been HUGE. But nearly 5 years later, with free supercharging (I use a lot to my cabin and back most weekends), no oil changes, brakes, etc., and with no plans to sell my large frunk, 80 amp, rock solid Classic S, that by the time I'm done, it will have probably cost me less than (you name the vehicle). So what's the concern about depreciation? And us pre-AP folks were hit the hardest. Like most things in life, it's all a matter of perspective. Plus, only me in HOV -- gotta love that!

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Yes, huge if you bought today and sold in 2 - 5 years. That's just the nature of the product. It's not an investment. It's a significantly depreciating asset -- like a rock falling off a cliff. That should be the image in your mind as you drive off the lot and you think of the money you spent. So best you have your finances in order, your kid's college paid for, etc., before you buy an S or an X, in my view at least.

But, more importantly, look to your investments for appreciation and to your Tesla(s) for a huge increase in your quality of life. That's how I looked at it, plus I was investing in my children's future.

I bought my S before AP in early 2014 and if I had sold it in 2 years my depreciation hit would have been HUGE. But nearly 5 years later, with free supercharging (I use a lot to my cabin and back most weekends), no oil changes, brakes, etc., and with no plans to sell my large frunk, 80 amp, rock solid Classic S, that by the time I'm done, it will have probably cost me less than (you name the vehicle). So what's the concern about depreciation? And us pre-AP folks were hit the hardest. Like most things in life, it's all a matter of perspective. Plus, only me in HOV -- gotta love that!

Well said, Canuck

 

[Peteski]

Model X has been the only real SUV EV, but now that's quickly set to change with BMW, Mercedes announcing actual production of iX3, & EQC next year. These could feel arrive in 3-15 months., and the ipace - while a likely model Y competitor is already here. (the reality is people compare it to X & S because that is whats available to day)

Of course Tesla has the supercharging network....but with other options on the horizon, will there be a much more significant drop in Model X values in the next year or 2-5 years ? ( as compared with the Model X depreciation that we have seen from 2016-current ) If so -- what do you think that depreciation might look like ?

I think it will have zero affect on depreciation of current MX simply because nobody would be considering a used X vs a brand new whatever in 3-5 years time. It may however have a significant affect on depreciation of any future MX bought at the same time as a new whatever from a more traditional manufacturer. But that all depends on how they actually compare and how well the legacy manufacturers transition into the EV world. Their early attempts were never very convincing and hence the Tesla S being a total revelation on first release. Literally like a car dropped in from Mars!

 

[mattack4000]

The expiration of the tax credit will help the resale, but then it’s. Car. You should think of it as a sunk cost anyway

 

[rush6410]

Do you mean free supercharging will transfer to future buyers if you sell the car? Because that isn't correct.

If you bought an S or X prior to free supercharging was tied to a referral or prior ownership, it will transfer to next owner. My owner website states, "If you choose to sell your current Tesla, free Supercharging will transfer to the next owner. In addition, up to five friends you refer will also receive free Supercharging."

 

[tc521]

The expiration of the tax credit will help the resale, but then it’s. Car. You should think of it as a sunk cost anyway

I don’t think anyone doesn’t expect basic scaled depreciation. My concern is for extreme depreciation due to big jumps in battery chemistry and range improvements.

I do agree the loss of the $7,500 federal incentive will help assuming we don’t see it reimplemented.